Starmer out by...?

Name: Starmer out by...?
Start: 2025-02-03T18:45:44.284Z
End: 2025-12-31T12:00:00.000Z

Starmer out by...? — Discussion

guyontheearth · 2025-02-03T18:45:44.284Z

Discussion about Starmer out by...?. Traders share insights and predictions on Polymarket.

Politics·Starmer

Starmer out by...?

$9,694,892 Vol.

Jun 30, 2026

March 31

$687,513 Vol.

April 30

$42,663 Vol.

11%

June 30

$1,240,150 Vol.

46%

December 31

$540,450 Vol.

70%

$9,694,892 Vol.

March 31

$687,513 Vol.

April 30

$42,663 Vol.

11%

June 30

$1,240,150 Vol.

46%

December 31

$540,450 Vol.

70%

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Keir Starmer ceases to be the Prime Minister of the United Kingdom for any period of time between market creation and March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Keir Starmer's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. The resolution source for this market will be the government of the UK, however a consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.

Keir Starmer's sharply declining approval ratings, now deeply negative amid backlash to Labour's October budget and cuts to winter fuel payments for pensioners, form the primary driver elevating trader odds on an early exit as UK Prime Minister. Recent polls show Labour's lead over Reform UK and Conservatives evaporating, with internal party dissent over welfare reforms and foreign policy stances fueling leadership speculation, though no formal challenge has emerged. Economic pressures and rising Reform support under Nigel Farage amplify risks of no-confidence motions or voluntary resignation. Key upcoming events include the November local by-elections and spring 2025 council contests, which could further test party unity and shift market-implied probabilities.

Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated Mar 17, 2026, 3:20 PM UTC

UK Cabinet Minister resigns by June 30, 2026?

71%

Karoline Leavitt out by March 31?

Pedro Sánchez out as PM of Spain by December 31, 2026?

23%

Beware of external links.

Frequently Asked Questions

"Starmer out by...?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 6 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "December 31" at 70%, followed by "June 30" at 46%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 70¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 70% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Starmer out by...?" has generated $9.7 million in total trading volume since the market launched on Feb 3, 2025. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Starmer out by...?," browse the 6 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Starmer out by...?" is "December 31" at 70%, meaning the market assigns a 70% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "June 30" at 46%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Starmer out by...?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.

Yes. You don't need to trade to stay informed. This page serves as a live tracker for "Starmer out by...?." The outcome probabilities update in real-time as new trades come in. You can bookmark this page and check the comments section to see what other traders are saying. You can also use the time-range filters on the chart to see how the odds have shifted over time. It's a free, real-time window into what the market expects to happen.

Polymarket odds are set by real traders putting real money behind their beliefs, which tends to surface accurate predictions. With $9.7 million traded on “Starmer out by...?,” these prices aggregate the collective knowledge and conviction of thousands of participants — often outperforming polls, expert forecasts, and traditional surveys. Prediction markets like Polymarket have a strong track record of accuracy, especially as events approach their resolution date. For example, Polymarket has a one month accuracy score of 94%. For the latest stats on Polymarket’s prediction accuracy, visit the accuracy page on Polymarket.

To place your first trade on "Starmer out by...?," sign up for a free Polymarket account and fund it using crypto, a credit or debit card, or a bank transfer. Once your account is funded, return to this page, select the outcome you want to trade, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If you're new to prediction markets, click the "How it works" link at the top of any Polymarket page for a quick step-by-step walkthrough of how trading works.

On Polymarket, the price of each outcome represents the market's implied probability. A price of 70¢ for "December 31" in the "Starmer out by...?" market means traders collectively believe there is roughly a 70% chance that "December 31" will be the correct result. If you buy "Yes" shares at 70¢ and the outcome is correct, you receive $1.00 per share — a profit of 30¢ per share. If incorrect, those shares are worth $0.

The "Starmer out by...?" market's scheduled end date has passed, but the market has not yet been officially resolved. The end date indicates when the underlying event is expected to occur or become knowable. It is not the moment trading stops. The market remains open for trading until the outcome is formally resolved through the resolution process. You can still buy, sell, or close your position while the market is pending resolution. Check the resolution status tracker and "Rules" section on this page for updates on the resolution timeline.

The "Starmer out by...?" market has an active community of 333 comments where traders share their analysis, debate outcomes, and discuss breaking developments. Scroll down to the comments section below to read what other participants think. You can also filter by "Top Holders" to see what the market's biggest traders are positioned on, or check the "Activity" tab for a real-time feed of trades.

Polymarket is the world's largest prediction market, where you can stay informed and profit from your knowledge of real-world events. Traders buy and sell shares on outcomes for topics ranging from politics and elections to crypto, finance, sports, tech, and culture, including markets like "Starmer out by...?." Prices reflect real-time, crowd-sourced probabilities backed by financial conviction, often providing faster and more accurate signals than polls, pundits, or traditional surveys.

Starmer out by...?

Starmer out by...?

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Comments (333)

Top Holders

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