Name: SpaceX Starship Flight Test 9
Start: 2025-03-12T15:16:36.284736Z
End: 2025-12-31T12:00:00Z

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This is a market on the outcomes of SpaceX's ninth flight test of the Starship rocket.

If the 9th SpaceX Starship successfully launches from its launchpad by April 15, 2025 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Yes”. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

The outcome of any launch will be corroborated by examining official video provided by SpaceX (https://www.youtube.com/c/SpaceX), as well as secondary video feeds and/or written reports if necessary.

Any subsequent anomaly (e.g. an explosion) after the launch will have no bearing on the outcome. Any name change of the Starship with another vehicle will have no bearing on the outcome of the market.

April 15

If the 9th SpaceX Starship successfully launches from its launchpad by April 30, 2025 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Yes”. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

The outcome of any launch will be corroborated by examining official video provided by SpaceX (https://www.youtube.com/c/SpaceX), as well as secondary video feeds and/or written reports if necessary.

Any subsequent anomaly (e.g. an explosion) after the launch will have no bearing on the outcome. Any name change of the Starship with another vehicle will have no bearing on the outcome of the market.

April 30

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the booster for the ninth Starship-SuperHeavy test is successfully caught by the chopsticks on the Orbital Launch Tower during it's landing attempt. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

A successful catch is defined as the chopsticks capturing and supporting the booster without it falling to the ground or causing catastrophic damage during the landing process.

This market pertains to the ninth Starship launch. If the rocket lifts off the pad, it will be considered the ninth Starship launch, and this market will resolve based on it. If the rocket does not lift off the pad, it will not be considered the ninth launch, and this market will stay open until the ninth launch has occurred. If the ninth launch has not occurred by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source for this market will be official video provided by SpaceX (https://www.youtube.com/c/SpaceX), as well as secondary video feeds and/or written reports if necessary.

Chopsticks catch Super Heavy?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the booster for the ninth Starship-SuperHeavy test explodes at any point during the test from the start of fueling operations to 60 minutes after it makes contact with Earth upon landing. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

An explosion is defined as a violent and catastrophic event resulting in the destruction of all or part of the vehicle, regardless of intent or context (e.g., a planned termination event would also count).

If the ninth launch does not occur by December 31, 2025, at 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".

Note: The sixth Starship-SuperHeavy test flight which exploded after executing controlled splashdown in the Gulf of Mexico would qualify for a "Yes" resolution.

The resolution source for this market will be official video provided by SpaceX (https://www.youtube.com/c/SpaceX), as well as secondary video feeds and/or written reports if necessary.

Super Heavy explodes?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald attends the ninth Starship-SuperHeavy test launch. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

If the event is canceled or postponed beyond December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".

Attending the test is defined as being in physical attendance within proximity of the launch (e.g. Trump attending the 6th launch would count https://www.cnbc.com/2024/11/19/trump-attendings-spacex-launch-elon-musk-starship-.html).

This market pertains to the ninth Starship launch attempt. This market will resolve based on any attempted test regardless of if the rocket lifts off the pad.

The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.


Trump attends launch?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Starship upper stage for the ninth Starship-SuperHeavy test flight achieves a controlled splashdown in the ocean. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."

This market pertains to the ninth Starship launch. If the rocket lifts off the pad, it will be considered the ninth Starship launch, and this market will resolve based on it. If the rocket does not lift off the pad, it will not be considered the ninth launch, and this market will stay open until the ninth launch has occurred. If the ninth launch has not occurred by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No."

A splashdown will be considered controlled if the Starship upper stage successfully re-enters Earth's atmosphere, remains intact during descent, and enters the water without breaking apart or exploding upon impact.

The resolution source for this market will be official video provided by SpaceX (https://www.youtube.com/c/SpaceX), as well as secondary video feeds and/or written reports if necessary.

Successful splash down?

If the 9th SpaceX Starship successfully launches from its launchpad by May 20, 2025 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Yes”. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

The outcome of any launch will be corroborated by examining official video provided by SpaceX (https://www.youtube.com/c/SpaceX), as well as secondary video feeds and/or written reports if necessary.

Any subsequent anomaly (e.g. an explosion) after the launch will have no bearing on the outcome. Any name change of the Starship with another vehicle will have no bearing on the outcome of the market.

Launched by May 20

If the 9th SpaceX Starship successfully launches from its launchpad by May 31, 2025 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Yes”. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

The outcome of any launch will be corroborated by examining official video provided by SpaceX (https://www.youtube.com/c/SpaceX), as well as secondary video feeds and/or written reports if necessary.

Any subsequent anomaly (e.g. an explosion) after the launch will have no bearing on the outcome. Any name change of the Starship with another vehicle will have no bearing on the outcome of the market.

Launched by May 31

SpaceX Starship Flight Test 9

This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 9.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between December 8, 2025 12:00 PM ET, and December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).

If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used. 

After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.

SpaceX Starship Flight Test 9

April 15
$4,291 Vol.
No

April 30
$7,720 Vol.
No

Chopsticks catch Super Heavy?
$157,153 Vol.
No

Super Heavy explodes?
$99,839 Vol.
Yes

Trump attends launch?
$5,512 Vol.
No

Successful splash down?
$26,850 Vol.
No

Launched by May 20
$17,193 Vol.
No

Launched by May 31
$122,738 Vol.
Yes

Market Context

SpaceX Starship Flight Test 9

Rules

SpaceX Starship Flight Test 9

Market Context

SpaceX Starship Flight Test 9

About

Related

SpaceX Starship Flight Test 9

April 15$4,291 Vol.Nocircle xmark

April 30$7,720 Vol.Nocircle xmark

Chopsticks catch Super Heavy?$157,153 Vol.Nocircle xmark

Super Heavy explodes?$99,839 Vol.Yescircle check

Trump attends launch?$5,512 Vol.Nocircle xmark

Successful splash down?$26,850 Vol.Nocircle xmark

Launched by May 20$17,193 Vol.Nocircle xmark

Launched by May 31$122,738 Vol.Yescircle check

Market Context

SpaceX Starship Flight Test 9

Rules

SpaceX Starship Flight Test 9

Market Context

SpaceX Starship Flight Test 9

About

Related

April 15
$4,291 Vol.
No

April 30
$7,720 Vol.
No

Chopsticks catch Super Heavy?
$157,153 Vol.
No

Super Heavy explodes?
$99,839 Vol.
Yes

Trump attends launch?
$5,512 Vol.
No

Successful splash down?
$26,850 Vol.
No

Launched by May 20
$17,193 Vol.
No

Launched by May 31
$122,738 Vol.
Yes