SpaceX Starship Flight Test 9
$441,297 Vol.
OUTCOMERESULT
April 15
$4,291 Vol.
No
April 15
$4,291 Vol.
No
April 30
$7,720 Vol.
No
April 30
$7,720 Vol.
No
Chopsticks catch Super Heavy?
$157,153 Vol.
No
Chopsticks catch Super Heavy?
$157,153 Vol.
No
Super Heavy explodes?
$99,839 Vol.
Yes
Super Heavy explodes?
$99,839 Vol.
Yes
Trump attends launch?
$5,512 Vol.
No
Trump attends launch?
$5,512 Vol.
No
Successful splash down?
$26,850 Vol.
No
Successful splash down?
$26,850 Vol.
No
Launched by May 20
$17,193 Vol.
No
Launched by May 20
$17,193 Vol.
No
Launched by May 31
$122,738 Vol.
Yes
Launched by May 31
$122,738 Vol.
Yes
Rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the booster for the ninth Starship-SuperHeavy test explodes at any point during the test from the start of fueling operations to 60 minutes after it makes contact with Earth upon landing. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An explosion is defined as a violent and catastrophic event resulting in the destruction of all or part of the vehicle, regardless of intent or context (e.g., a planned termination event would also count).
If the ninth launch does not occur by December 31, 2025, at 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
Note: The sixth Starship-SuperHeavy test flight which exploded after executing controlled splashdown in the Gulf of Mexico would qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be official video provided by SpaceX (https://www.youtube.com/c/SpaceX), as well as secondary video feeds and/or written reports if necessary.
An explosion is defined as a violent and catastrophic event resulting in the destruction of all or part of the vehicle, regardless of intent or context (e.g., a planned termination event would also count).
If the ninth launch does not occur by December 31, 2025, at 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
Note: The sixth Starship-SuperHeavy test flight which exploded after executing controlled splashdown in the Gulf of Mexico would qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be official video provided by SpaceX (https://www.youtube.com/c/SpaceX), as well as secondary video feeds and/or written reports if necessary.
Created At: Mar 12, 2025, 3:16 PM UTC
Volume
$441,297End Date
Dec 31, 2025Created At
Mar 12, 2025, 3:16 PM UTCResolver
0x6A9D22261...Outcome proposed: Yes
No dispute
Final outcome: Yes
$441,297 Vol.
SpaceX Starship Flight Test 9
April 15
$4,291 Vol.
No
April 30
$7,720 Vol.
No
Chopsticks catch Super Heavy?
$157,153 Vol.
No
Super Heavy explodes?
$99,839 Vol.
Yes
Trump attends launch?
$5,512 Vol.
No
Successful splash down?
$26,850 Vol.
No
Launched by May 20
$17,193 Vol.
No
Launched by May 31
$122,738 Vol.
Yes
About
Volume
$441,297End Date
Dec 31, 2025Created At
Mar 12, 2025, 3:16 PM UTCResolver
0x6A9D22261...Beware of external links.
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