Name: Robinhood larger than Coinbase before 2026?
Start: 2025-07-10T15:50:27.689222Z
End: 2025-12-31T23:59:59.999Z

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This market will resolve to "Yes" if the market cap of Robinhood is greater than the market cap of Coinbase at anytime between July 10 and December 31, 2025. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Robinhood larger than Coinbase before 2026?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Robinhood’s recently acquired Designated Contract Market (DCM), MIAXdx, self-certifies at least one sports-related event-based contract with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) at any point before March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

The primary resolution source will be official information released by the CFTC, Robinhood, or MIAXdx; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.


Robinhood self-certifies sports event contract by March 31? 

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Robinhood offers tokenized versions of U.S.-listed equities to U.S.-based users for trading on its platform or an affiliated app it controls by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET . Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. 

The tokenized equities must track the price of U.S. stocks such as those listed on the NYSE or Nasdaq. They may be structured as synthetic assets, wrapped instruments, or token representations of real equities, but do not need to confer voting rights or direct ownership.

To qualify, U.S.-based users must be able to buy or sell the tokenized equities during the market period. 

The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.


Will Robinhood launch stock tokens in the US before 2026?

Robinhood, through a joint venture with Susquehanna International Group, recently acquired a majority stake in MIAXdx, a Commodity Futures Trading Commission-licensed Designated Contract Market and Derivatives Clearing Organization, signaling Robinhood’s intent to deepen its involvement in prediction markets (see: https://robinhood.com/us/en/newsroom/robinhood-prediction-markets-joint-venture/).

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Robinhood makes at least one MIAXdx-cleared prediction market user-tradable on their U.S. platform in any U.S. state by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

“MIAXdx-cleared” means the prediction market contract is listed on the MIAXdx Designated Contract Market and subject to MIAXdx clearing. Prediction markets offered by Robinhood through KalshiEX, ForecastEX, or any other exchange will not count.

Announcements alone do not qualify; the product must be operational.

Any rebranding or renaming of MIAXdx will not affect the resolution of this market.

The primary source of resolution for this market will be information from the Robinhood U.S. trading platform and a consensus of credible reporting.

Robinhood launches prediction market through MIAXdx by March 31?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Rabby officially launches a token by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The token must be actively and publicly transferable and tradable. Announcements alone do not qualify

The primary resolution source for this market will be information from Rabby, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.


Will Rabby launch a token in 2025?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the crypto token Hyperliquid ($HYPE) is listed for spot purchase on Coinbase by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source for this market will be Coinbase, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Hyperliquid listed on Coinbase in 2025?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if any TradingView 1 minute candle for CRYPTOCAP:OTHERS between November 3, 2025, 11:00 AM ET and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET has a final “Low” price equal to or lower than the price specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”

The resolution source for this market is TradingView, specifically the CRYPTOCAP:OTHERS “Low” prices available at https://www.tradingview.com/chart/?symbol=CRYPTOCAP%3AOTHERS, with the chart settings on “1m” and “Candles” selected on the top bar.

Please note that this market depends solely on price data from the TradingView CRYPTOCAP:OTHERS chart. Prices from other sources, indices, or exchanges will not be considered for the resolution of this market.

Altcoin market cap dip to $160B by December 31?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Ethereum (ETH) is not the second or first largest cryptocurrency by market capitalization at any point between March 9, and December 31, 2025 ET, according to CoinGecko. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source will be CoinGecko. If CoinGecko becomes permanently unavailable, another credible source will be chosen. If there is ambiguity, a consensus of credible reporting will be used.

ETH flipped in 2025?

This market will immediately resolve to "Yes" if the USDC marketcap is equal to or greater than 50% of USDT marketcap on any day by December 31, 2025. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."

This market will resolve based on CoinGecko's "historical data" section for each coin, currently available at https://www.coingecko.com/en/coins/usd-coin/historical_data#panel and https://www.coingecko.com/en/coins/tether/historical_data#panel respectively, specifically the daily "Market Cap" data.

The daily market cap data for any given date will be considered finalized once data for the following calendar day is published on CoinGecko’s “Historical Data” page for both USDC and USDT.

This market will resolve based on the specified CoinGecko chart, not according to other sources or spot markets.

Will USDC hit 50% of USDT market cap by December 31?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if any perpetual futures product on Coinbase US offers more than 10x leverage by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, the market will resolve to “No”.

The primary resolution source will be official information from Coinbase. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used to confirm the offering.

Will Coinbase US perps offer more than 10x leverage?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US government holds any amount of XRP in its reserves at any point between January 15, 2025, ET and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Note that the US government confiscating XRP does not count as holding XRP reserves.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US government and/or the US federal reserve, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

US national XRP reserve in 2025?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if credible reporting confirms that any entity enters into an agreement to acquire the listed company by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

Mergers where the listed company is subsumed by another entity will count toward a "Yes" resolution.

An announced agreement between the listed company and an acquiring entity will qualify for a “Yes” resolution, regardless of whether the acquisition is ultimately completed.

The primary resolution source for this market is official information from the listed company and/or its leadership; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Will Pizza Hut be acquired before 2027?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Kraken completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) by the listed date ET, as confirmed by official company announcements and credible news sources. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."

The IPO refers to the first sale of stock by the listed company to the public on any recognized stock exchange.

If Kraken is acquired by another company that is already public, this market will immediately resolve to "No."

The resolution source for this market is a consensus of credible reporting.

Kraken IPO by December 31, 2026?

If a Bitcoin hard fork occurs between July 7 and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Will Bitcoin hard fork before 2026?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if @TheRoaringKitty posts between July 23, 10:40 AM ET, and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For the purposes of this market, all quote and reply posts count toward a "Yes" resolution, but reposts will not count.

The resolution source for this market will be Roaring Kitty's verified X account: https://x.com/TheRoaringKitty.

Please note, only the @TheRoaringKitty verified X account counts for this market, regardless of the URL for this profile. If Roaring Kitty posts from another account, it has no bearing on the resolution of this market.

Will Roaring Kitty tweet again by December 31?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Revolut launches a stablecoin pegged to the US Dollar by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The stablecoin must be actively transferrable and/or tradable, announcements alone will not qualify.

The primary resolution source for this market will be information from Revolut, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Will Revolut launch their own stablecoin in 2025?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US government holds any amount of Dogecoin in its reserves at any point between January 15, 2025, ET and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Note that the US government confiscating Dogecoin does not count as holding Dogecoin reserves.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US government and/or the US federal reserve, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

US national Dogecoin reserve in 2025?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Base officially launches a token by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The token must be actively and publicly transferable and tradable. Announcements alone do not qualify

The primary resolution source for this market will be information from Base, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.


Will Base launch a token by December 31, 2026?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if OpenAI completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) by the listed date ET, as confirmed by official company announcements and credible news sources. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The IPO refers to the first sale of stock by the listed company to the public on any recognized stock exchange.

If OpenAI is acquired by another company that is already public, this market will immediately resolve to "No."

The resolution source for this market is a consensus of credible reporting.

Will OpenAI IPO by December 31 2026?

Brian Armstrong is scheduled to participate in Coinbase's product showcase on December 17, 2025 (https://x.com/brian_armstrong/status/1990798715997810957).

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Brian Armstrong says the listed term during his appearance at the named event. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No".

Pluralization/possessive of the listed term will count toward the resolution of this market.

Instances where the term is used in a compound word will count regardless of context (e.g. joyful is not a compound word for "joy," however "killjoy" is a compounding of the words "kill" and "joy").

If this market requires a specified number of mentions of a person’s first or last name, a full-name mention will count as one mention (e.g., if a market is about “Joe / Biden 5+ times,” a mention of “Joe Biden” will count once).

AI-generated audio or video will not count toward this market's resolution.

This market is explicitly about Brian Armstrong's appearances at the "Product Showcase: Coinbase System Update 2025" event (https://investor.coinbase.com/events-and-presentations/events/event-details/2025/Product-Showcase-Coinbase-System-Update-2025-Cafj9fkLvm/default.aspx). Speeches, events, or comments that occur outside of the specifically listed events will not qualify toward this market's resolution. If the events contain Q&As, it will count toward the resolution of this market.

If this event is definitively cancelled, or relevant footage is otherwise not aired by December 17, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source will be video of the events. Only remarks which are broadcast or streamed live will count toward this market's resolution.

Will Brian Armstrong say "Stablecoin" 2+ times at the Coinbase product showcase on December 17?

This market will immediately resolve to "Yes" if the USDT marketcap is equal to or greater than the value specified in the title on any day by December 31, 2025. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."

This market will resolve based on CoinGecko's "historical data" section for USDT, currently available at https://www.coingecko.com/en/coins/tether/historical_data#panel respectively, specifically the daily "Market Cap" data.

The daily market cap data for any given date will be considered finalized once data for the following calendar day is published on CoinGecko’s “Historical Data” page.

This market will resolve based on the specified CoinGecko chart, not according to other sources or spot markets.

Will USDT market cap hit $200B by December 31?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump signs a bill into law or performs any executive action changing US tax law to eliminate capital gains tax on any cryptocurrency assets by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Such a bill must apply to US taxpaying persons in general; if a law applies only to specific companies or institutions, it will not qualify toward a "Yes" resolution to this market.

If capital gains is eliminated only for specific types or classes of crypto assets (e.g., only Bitcoin or Ethereum, only American issued cryptocurrencies, or only NFTs), it will still count toward a "Yes" resolution for this market.

If the bill is signed into law, or executive action is instituted before the resolution date, it will suffice to resolve this market to "Yes" regardless of when it takes effect.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US federal government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Trump eliminates capital gains tax on crypto in 2025?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if credible reporting confirms that Elon Musk, either personally or through an entity led by him, enters into an agreement to buy OpenAI (or the nonprofit that controls OpenAI) by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

An announced agreement between Elon Musk and OpenAI will qualify for a “Yes” resolution, regardless of whether the acquisition is ultimately completed.

An agreement to merge with an entity led by Elon Musk will count toward "Yes" resolution.

The primary resolution source for this market is official information from Elon Musk, Sam Altman, and/or OpenAI however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Will Elon Musk buy OpenAI in 2025?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Axiom officially launches a token by 11:59 PM ET on the date specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The token must be actively and publicly transferable and tradable. Announcements alone do not qualify

The primary resolution source for this market will be information from Axiom, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.


Will Axiom launch a token by December 31, 2026?

This market will resolve based on Discord's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.

If no IPO occurs by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by June 30, 2026".

Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.

If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.

Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.

In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on Discord’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.

Will Discord not IPO by June 30, 2026?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if OpenAI completes an initial public offering (IPO) valued at $1 trillion USD or higher at the time of the IPO by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, it will resolve to “No.”

An “initial public offering (IPO)” refers to the first sale of OpenAI’s equity securities to the public through a regulated stock exchange.

OpenAI will be considered to have achieved a $1 trillion valuation if the market capitalization implied by the IPO offering price multiplied by the total number of outstanding shares equals or exceeds $1 trillion USD.

Announcements, filings, or planned IPOs that do not result in public trading by that time will not qualify. Private funding rounds, secondary share sales, or employee-share transactions will not be considered. A direct listing or merger via SPAC will qualify only if it results in OpenAI’s common shares becoming publicly traded for the first time on a major exchange.

If OpenAI’s IPO is priced before the resolution deadline but public trading has not yet commenced, the market may remain open for up to 30 calendar days to determine whether the IPO is completed.

If OpenAI is acquired, dissolved, or merged into another entity before an IPO occurs, this market will resolve to “No.” In the event of a restructuring, the market will resolve based on the entity legally recognized as OpenAI’s successor will 

The resolution source will be a consensus for credible reporting.

OpenAI $1t+ IPO before 2027?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Phantom officially launches a token by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The token must be actively and publicly transferable and tradable. Announcements alone do not qualify

The primary resolution source for this market will be information from Phantom, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.


Will Phantom launch a token in 2025?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Based’s cumulative Polymarket revenue is equal to or greater than the value specified in the title by December 31, 2026 ET. Otherwise, the market will resolve to “No”.

The resolution source for this market is the Based revenue bar chart available at https://dune.com/datadashboards/based-statistics, using the “Cumulative Revenue” value displayed when hovering over the daily data point.

This market will resolve as soon as the cumulative revenue shown on the dashboard is equal to or greater than the value specified in the title, or once the value for Dec 31, 2026 is finalized and no earlier value has met or exceeded that threshold.

If the resolution source becomes permanently unavailable, the market will resolve based on on-chain data, Based official communication, or other reliable crypto sources.

Will Based Polymarket revenue hit $1M before 2027?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US government sells any of its Bitcoin by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the US government and on-chain data, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Will the US Government sell Bitcoin by December 31?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the Fed's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.

The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Fed rate hike in 2026?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the “Total RWA Value” shown on rwa.xyz is equal to or greater than $50B on any day by December 31, 2025. Otherwise, it will resolve to “No.”

The resolution source is the “Total RWA Value” chart set to “1m”, available at:
https://app.rwa.xyz/

A data point on the rwa.xyz chart is considered finalized once the data point for the following day is published.

If rwa.xyz becomes permanently unavailable, the market will resolve based on other credible and publicly verifiable sources.

Will RWAs hit $50B by December 31?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if OpenAI achieves a public valuation of $1 trillion USD or more, or raises a private funding round that values the company at $1 trillion or more between June 22 and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."

To qualify, the valuation must be explicitly confirmed by OpenAI or an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting. 

The resolution source will be OpenAI’s official communications, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Robinhood larger than Coinbase before 2026?

Market Context

Robinhood larger than Coinbase before 2026?

Rules

Robinhood larger than Coinbase before 2026?

Market Context

Robinhood larger than Coinbase before 2026?

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