Market icon

Price of dozen eggs in March?

$1,730,089 Vol.

Apr 10, 2025

$5.50-5.75 58.7%

$5.75-6.00 32%

Above $6.00 5.1%

$5.25-5.50 3.8%

Feb 23Mar 9Mar 23Apr 60%20%40%60%80%

Source: Polymarket.com

OUTCOME

% CHANCE

Rules

This market will resolve to the bracket within which the price for "Eggs, Grade A, Large (Cost per Dozen) in U.S. City Average" lies when the March data point is published by the St. Louis Fed (https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/APU0000708111).

The St. Louis Fed bases its numbers for egg prices on the BLS's CPI release. The March release is presently scheduled for April 10, 2025. Resolution of this market will take place upon the update of the St. Louis Fed's chart.

The resolution source for this market measures prices to the third decimal place. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.

If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.

Volume

$1,730,089

End Date

Apr 10, 2025

Comments
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Activity
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Beware of external links, they may be phishing attacks.

Mantou11

Mantou11

4h ago

There is noone here with a clue. We are working from the same info as last week.

GuyWhoTrades

GuyWhoTrades

4h ago

Still a good chance for it to be $5.85 or more given recent estimates.

compounding

5h ago

The number will be ~$4.95

Mantou11

Mantou11

10h ago

Drowerz is trying to get rid off his shares.. its too late, you are overinvested

compounding

11h ago

Current average is at $3.56

Manu888

1d ago

When resolved?

Williwonka

1d ago

@Manu888

Thursday

compounding

1d ago

Current average is at $3.25

Williwonka

2d ago

The last month this market ALWAYS resulted in the bracket that already had the highest chance to win.

Williwonka

2d ago

@Williwonka

So just buy 5.50 to 5.75 and you'll be good

compounding

2d ago

Current average is at $3.28

Mantou11

Mantou11

3d ago

Market is well priced, 5.7-5.8 most likely based on weekly averages

Wisdomtime

14h ago

@Mantou11

What weekly averages?

Mantou11

Mantou11

13h ago

@Wisdomtime

https://datasembly.com/grocery-price-index/

compounding

3d ago

https://www.ams.usda.gov/mnreports/ams_3725.pdf

compounding

4d ago

Current average is $3.26

Satgod

3d ago

@compounding

That would be fantastic lollipop since I have bets placed at every price below $6 lolry

Manu888

6d ago

So it seems certain that it's Gon be slightly below 6

Piffpaff

7d ago

Does anyone have any clue? So much volatility, pricing is just crazy

Poggi

8d ago

In europe right?

SatoshiNakaide

8d ago

Looks like concesus moved to 5.6

compounding

9d ago

I buy mine at $3.85

GuyWhoTrades

GuyWhoTrades

8d ago

@compounding

We're all so happy for you.

Mantou11

Mantou11

9d ago

March almost equivalent, just slightly below Febraury average according to retail weekly statistics: https://datasembly.com/grocery-price-index/ my target is 5.7-5.9

Theraflu93

9d ago

@Mantou11

Looking at that, the last 3 months have been 5-10% off. That is 2 polymarket brackets away from freds actual results. An estimate of 5.4 for Feb lol

DoomedXor

9d ago

@Mantou11

I agree, please buy more

MyJealousStepBrother

MyJealousStepBro...

10d ago

eggs go perfect with cheese and sausages on a Mcmuffin sandwich. That is what I will buy with my winnings.

GuyWhoTrades

GuyWhoTrades

10d ago

Eggs are weally fwickin expensive huh guys

compounding

9d ago

@GuyWhoTrades

I buy them at $3.95 the dozen

Valormoz

10d ago

Never been so invested in eggs before

SatoshiNakaide

11d ago

If $6+ breaks 8c, it should flush down to 1c

CoffeeLover

CoffeeLover

11d ago

I am too retarded to be an AI

GuyWhoTrades

GuyWhoTrades

11d ago

@CoffeeLover

I feel like instead of coffee in your name is should be another c word.

CoffeeLover

CoffeeLover

11d ago

@GuyWhoTrades

I completely agree

CoffeeLover

CoffeeLover

11d ago

I am a human being

Valormoz

11d ago

What’s the current price?

Theraflu93

11d ago

@Valormoz

https://mymarketnews.ams.usda.gov/filerepo/sites/default/files/3725/2025-03-28/1232167/ams_3725_00069.pdf

PollOFritO

PollOFritO

11d ago

the crazy thing about all this is Vorian hang that 5c and Gorilla brought it all for 100k. And now he dumping it all back to him at 12c

CoffeeLover

CoffeeLover

11d ago

We need a price of coffee market

@CoffeeLover

we need a coffee of price market

Theraflu93

11d ago

@CoffeeLover

need more months of this market

SatoshiNakaide

12d ago

$6+ dumping , waiting to buy at 1 cent

PollOFritO

PollOFritO

11d ago

@SatoshiNakai...

looks like you getting your wish. but I think you should dump yours too before they all do

SatoshiNakaide

11d ago

@PollOFritO

It hasn't hit my stop yet , once 6 cents break

DoomedXor

12d ago

Too much mumbo jumbo going on here. If a person is truly confident with his "calculations", the wisest thing to do is go take loans and buy as much shares as he can, not to talk people into making shares expensive.

compounding

12d ago

I buy my dozen at $3.95

PollOFritO

PollOFritO

12d ago

here is the official CPI area. you can weight it using Walmart price https://www.bls.gov/cpi/additional-resources/geographic-sample.htm#geographic-sample.xlsx.f.2

Wisdomtime

12d ago

I fully echo Vorian's analysis - I have exactly same conclusion that the above 6$ is clearly underpriced, and should be ~50% or even higher. Rest of the probability should go to 5.75-6, given we know the wholesale prices well already. Below for more details on my analyses.

Vorian

12d ago

There is zero chance that the price drops below $5.50, and it is highly likely that the price will be above $6.00. Here is why. Why "Above $6" is Undervalued & "Below $5.50" is Overvalued 1. Wholesale Prices Predict Retail Prices with a ~2-Week Lag a) Retail prices lag behind wholesale prices by approximately two weeks because supermarkets and grocery stores still have older inventory purchased at previous prices. b) Only after they sell through their existing stock and order new batches at updated wholesale prices do retail prices begin reflecting the change, typically a two-week delay. c) As a result, the March retail price will primarily reflect wholesale prices from mid-February to mid-March, whereas February's retail price was based on wholesale prices from mid-January to mid-February.

Theraflu93

12d ago

Eggs going to be hella cheap next month

PollOFritO

PollOFritO

12d ago

https://www.ams.usda.gov/mnreports/ams_3725.pdf Final report. Gl everyone

PollOFritO

PollOFritO

12d ago

@PollOFritO

Also someone should ask for April seem like a good market w liquidity

Vorian

12d ago

@PollOFritO

This data is irrelevant for determining the March retail price for two key reasons: 1) Wholesale vs. Retail - This is the wholesale price, not retail. It doesn't tell you anything about the retail price unless you run a trend analysis which in that case would only help you determine the direction of the retail price. 2) Timing Mismatch - As generally known, wholesale price changes take up to three weeks to affect retail. This is reaffirmed in the report itself that you share: "wholesale price changes can take up to three weeks to be reflected in the retail dairycase, consumers are only now starting to see shelf prices slowly decline." Therefore, wholesale prices after mid-March impact April, not March. To estimate March's retail price, you must average wholesale prices from late February to early March and compare them to February's equivalent period (mid-January to mid-February), which actually tells you that retail price in March can on average be expected to be higher than February, see my analysis above.

guhu

14d ago

Am I missing something?

huyu

14d ago

come from to judge the resolution?

where can you find the current info if the link isn't updated till the 10th of April?

DonkeyMan69

14d ago

Below 5 will be quite great money

https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/eggs-us

Market icon

$5.00-5.25

Amount

$