With accumulated rainfall at the Hong Kong Observatory reaching just 60 mm through April 16—primarily from early-month showers including a 45.1 mm downpour on April 5—traders heavily favor below-average totals, pricing <130 mm at 36% implied probability despite the historical April norm of around 153 mm. Drier conditions over the past week have slowed accumulation to below the monthly pace, positioning 150-160 mm (22%) and 130-140 mm (15.5%) as next contenders amid uncertainty in the final 14 days. The Observatory's seasonal forecast anticipates normal to above-normal precipitation through June, but short-term outlooks signal moderate rain, with potential for tropical influences or stalled fronts to elevate totals toward higher bins like 180-190 mm (11.5%). Market resolution awaits the official April 1-30 sum.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedPrecipitation in Hong Kong in April?
Precipitation in Hong Kong in April?
<130mm 27%
150-160mm 22%
190mm+ 16%
130-140mm 16%
$31,714 Vol.
$31,714 Vol.
Apr 30, 2026
<130mm
37%
130-140mm
16%
140-150mm
14%
150-160mm
22%
160-170mm
7%
190-200mm
10%
180-190
12%
190mm+
11%
<130mm 27%
150-160mm 22%
190mm+ 16%
130-140mm 16%
$31,714 Vol.
$31,714 Vol.
Apr 30, 2026
<130mm
$14,454 Vol.
37%
130-140mm
$5,489 Vol.
16%
140-150mm
$5,976 Vol.
14%
150-160mm
$3,455 Vol.
22%
160-170mm
$432 Vol.
7%
190-200mm
$380 Vol.
10%
180-190
$446 Vol.
12%
190mm+
$1,081 Vol.
11%
This market will resolve according to the total precipitation in mm in Hong Kong between April 1 and April 30, 2026, according to the Hong Kong Observatory.
The resolution source for this market will be the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Total Rainfall (mm)" figure for all days in April 2026 under the "Daily Extract" at the https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm link once figures are finalized for the specified range.
If the reported data falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
If the relevant data is not available by June 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
The resolution source for this market measures precipitation to 1 decimal place (e.g., 1.5), thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. Any revisions to precipitation recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.With accumulated rainfall at the Hong Kong Observatory reaching just 60 mm through April 16—primarily from early-month showers including a 45.1 mm downpour on April 5—traders heavily favor below-average totals, pricing <130 mm at 36% implied probability despite the historical April norm of around 153 mm. Drier conditions over the past week have slowed accumulation to below the monthly pace, positioning 150-160 mm (22%) and 130-140 mm (15.5%) as next contenders amid uncertainty in the final 14 days. The Observatory's seasonal forecast anticipates normal to above-normal precipitation through June, but short-term outlooks signal moderate rain, with potential for tropical influences or stalled fronts to elevate totals toward higher bins like 180-190 mm (11.5%). Market resolution awaits the official April 1-30 sum.
This market will resolve according to the total precipitation in mm in Hong Kong between April 1 and April 30, 2026, according to the Hong Kong Observatory.
The resolution source for this market will be the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Total Rainfall (mm)" figure for all days in April 2026 under the "Daily Extract" at the https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm link once figures are finalized for the specified range.
If the reported data falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
If the relevant data is not available by June 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
The resolution source for this market measures precipitation to 1 decimal place (e.g., 1.5), thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. Any revisions to precipitation recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Total Rainfall (mm)" figure for all days in April 2026 under the "Daily Extract" at the https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm link once figures are finalized for the specified range.
If the reported data falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
If the relevant data is not available by June 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
The resolution source for this market measures precipitation to 1 decimal place (e.g., 1.5), thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. Any revisions to precipitation recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Opened: Mar 24, 2026, 6:33 PM ET
Volume
$31,714End Date
Apr 30, 2026Market Opened
Mar 24, 2026, 6:33 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the total precipitation in mm in Hong Kong between April 1 and April 30, 2026, according to the Hong Kong Observatory.
The resolution source for this market will be the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Total Rainfall (mm)" figure for all days in April 2026 under the "Daily Extract" at the https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm link once figures are finalized for the specified range.
If the reported data falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
If the relevant data is not available by June 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
The resolution source for this market measures precipitation to 1 decimal place (e.g., 1.5), thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. Any revisions to precipitation recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.With accumulated rainfall at the Hong Kong Observatory reaching just 60 mm through April 16—primarily from early-month showers including a 45.1 mm downpour on April 5—traders heavily favor below-average totals, pricing <130 mm at 36% implied probability despite the historical April norm of around 153 mm. Drier conditions over the past week have slowed accumulation to below the monthly pace, positioning 150-160 mm (22%) and 130-140 mm (15.5%) as next contenders amid uncertainty in the final 14 days. The Observatory's seasonal forecast anticipates normal to above-normal precipitation through June, but short-term outlooks signal moderate rain, with potential for tropical influences or stalled fronts to elevate totals toward higher bins like 180-190 mm (11.5%). Market resolution awaits the official April 1-30 sum.
This market will resolve according to the total precipitation in mm in Hong Kong between April 1 and April 30, 2026, according to the Hong Kong Observatory.
The resolution source for this market will be the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Total Rainfall (mm)" figure for all days in April 2026 under the "Daily Extract" at the https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm link once figures are finalized for the specified range.
If the reported data falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
If the relevant data is not available by June 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
The resolution source for this market measures precipitation to 1 decimal place (e.g., 1.5), thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. Any revisions to precipitation recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Total Rainfall (mm)" figure for all days in April 2026 under the "Daily Extract" at the https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm link once figures are finalized for the specified range.
If the reported data falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
If the relevant data is not available by June 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
The resolution source for this market measures precipitation to 1 decimal place (e.g., 1.5), thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. Any revisions to precipitation recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$31,714End Date
Apr 30, 2026Market Opened
Mar 24, 2026, 6:33 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...With accumulated rainfall at the Hong Kong Observatory reaching just 60 mm through April 16—primarily from early-month showers including a 45.1 mm downpour on April 5—traders heavily favor below-average totals, pricing <130 mm at 36% implied probability despite the historical April norm of around 153 mm. Drier conditions over the past week have slowed accumulation to below the monthly pace, positioning 150-160 mm (22%) and 130-140 mm (15.5%) as next contenders amid uncertainty in the final 14 days. The Observatory's seasonal forecast anticipates normal to above-normal precipitation through June, but short-term outlooks signal moderate rain, with potential for tropical influences or stalled fronts to elevate totals toward higher bins like 180-190 mm (11.5%). Market resolution awaits the official April 1-30 sum.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions