Name: Over $4 billion inflows in spot Bitcoin ETFs on first day of trading?
Start: 2024-01-11T00:29:58.676Z
End: 2024-01-31T00:00:00Z

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On Jan 10 Bloomberg Intelligence predicted there would be over $4 billion of inflows in spot Bitcoin ETFs on the first day of trading (https://x.com/BBGIntelligence/status/1745187694928376233).

This market will resolve to "Yes" if there are $4 billion or more of combined inflows into bitcoin spot ETFs on their first day of trading. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No."

This market's resolution source will be a consensus of credible sources. This market may stay open until the value of inflows is known.

Over $4 billion inflows in spot Bitcoin ETFs on first day of trading?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if net Bitcoin ETF flows in 2025 are greater than $33.6B (the total net flows recorded in 2024). Otherwise, it will resolve to “No.”

Net flows for 2025 will be calculated by subtracting the cumulative flow shown on January 1, 2025 from the cumulative flow shown on December 31, 2025.

A daily cumulative flow data point on Farside will be considered finalized once the data point for the following day is published.

The resolution source is Farside’s Bitcoin Spot ETF Total Cumulative Flow chart available at https://farside.co.uk/btc/

This market resolves solely according to the cumulative flow values displayed on Farside, not according to other ETF flow sources.

If Farside becomes permanently unavailable, the market will resolve using other credible and publicly verifiable sources.

Will Bitcoin ETFs attract more flows in 2025 than in 2024?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if any wallet labeled as belonging to Satoshi Nakamoto on Arkham’s Intel Explorer shows an “Outflow” or “Swaps” transaction before December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”

The resolution source for this market is Arkham’s Intel Explorer, specifically the entity page for Satoshi Nakamoto available at https://intel.arkm.com/explorer/entity/satoshi-nakamoto

If Arkham becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on a consensus of credible sources.




Over $4 billion inflows in spot Bitcoin ETFs on first day of trading?

Market Context

Over $4 billion inflows in spot Bitcoin ETFs on first day of trading?

Rules

Over $4 billion inflows in spot Bitcoin ETFs on first day of trading?

Market Context

Over $4 billion inflows in spot Bitcoin ETFs on first day of trading?

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