Name: Next Government of Australia
Start: 2025-04-29T22:18:27.432581Z
End: 2025-05-03T12:00:00Z

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The 2025 Australian federal election will be held on 3 May 2025 to elect members of the 48th Parliament of Australia.

This market will resolve to the first governing party that forms the Australian Government after the next federal election and is able to command confidence in the House of Representatives.

The government will be considered formed once the Prime Minister is formally appointed by the Governor-General under non-caretaker circumstances and ministers are sworn in.

If no government is formed by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, or if a new federal election is officially called before that date without a government having been formed under the criteria above, this market will resolve to "Hung Parliament."

This market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve based on official information from the Australian government.

Note: The Liberal and the National Parties of Australia (Liberal–National Coalition) will be considered a single party, NOT a coalition for the purpose of this market. If this alliance breaks up prior to the election, the market for Liberal–National Coalition will be assigned to the Liberal Party. 

The 2025 Australian federal election will be held on 3 May 2025 to elect members of the 48th Parliament of Australia.

This market will resolve to the first governing party that forms the Australian Government after the next federal election and is able to command confidence in the House of Representatives.

The government will be considered formed once the Prime Minister is formally appointed by the Governor-General under non-caretaker circumstances and ministers are sworn in.

If no government is formed by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, or if a new federal election is officially called before that date without a government having been formed under the criteria above, this market will resolve to "Other".

This market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve based on official information from the Australian government.

Note: The Liberal and the National Parties of Australia (Liberal–National Coalition) will be considered a single party, NOT a coalition for the purpose of this market. If this alliance breaks up prior to the election, the market for Liberal–National Coalition will be assigned to the Liberal Party.

Labor majority

Labor minority

Liberal–National majority

Liberal–National minority

Other

Next Government of Australia 

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Liberal Party of Canada holds a majority of seats in the House of Commons for any period of time between December 12, 2025 and June 30, 2026, otherwise this market will resolve to "No".

This market will resolve to "No" if Parliament is dissolved before June 30, 2026. 

This markets resolution will be based solely on the number of seats held by the Liberal Party of Canada, not any alliance or coalition of which it may be a part.

The resolution source for this market will be official information from the Canadian government or a consensus of credible reporting.

Liberal majority in Canadian Parliament by June 30?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the next Canadian federal election is officially scheduled for a date prior to October 2029, by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For this market to resolve to "Yes" it is only necessary that the election date be declared, not that the election actually occur within the market timeframe. (e.g. if on December 23, 2025 an election is scheduled for April 23, 2026, this market will resolve to "Yes").

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the Canada, However a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Another Canada election called in 2025?

The 2025 Dutch general election is scheduled to take place on October 29, 2025.

This market will resolve to the first ruling coalition of parties that forms after the 2025 Dutch general election.

If the next Dutch Government after the election is not announced by October 31, 2026, this market will resolve to "No Coalition by October 31".

A party will only be considered part of the coalition if it signs the coalition agreement and provides at least one cabinet minister.

This market may resolve once the first government is officially announced and sworn in by the monarch, with ministers appointed under non-caretaker circumstances.

The following parties will be to be considered for this market: PVV, GroenLinks–PvdA, VVD, CDA, D66, JA21. All other parties (including but not limited to SP, BBB, NSC, DENK, PvdD, FvD, SGP, CU, and Volt) will not be considered. 

Resolution will be based on the listed option that most completely matches the parties included. If the coalition formed after the election includes all of the parties listed in a market option (along with any other parties), that option will resolve to “Yes” unless there exists another market option that more completely covers the coalition.

For example:

If the governing coalition includes GL–PvdA + VVD + CDA + JA21, but no option explicitly lists those four together, the market will resolve to “VVD + CDA + JA21”.

If the governing coalition includes PVV + VVD + CDA + D66, the option “PVV + VVD + CDA + D66” will resolve to “Yes”, while “PVV + VVD + CDA” will resolve to “No".

If the governing coalition does not match any listed option (e.g. the governing coalition is D66 + JA21) this market will resolve to “Other”. 

In the event that multiple market options each contain an equal number of coalition parties, the tie will be resolved in favor of the option whose listed parties together hold the greater number of seats in the newly elected House of Representatives. If this presents another tie, this market will resolve in favor of the listed coalition which received the greater number of valid votes.

This market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve based on official information from the Government of the Netherlands.

Will the next Dutch government be VVD + CDA + D66?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed party is a part of the first Dutch government formed after the 2025 general election scheduled to take place October 29. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

A party will only be considered part of the coalition if it signs the coalition agreement and provides at least one cabinet minister to the ruling government. Parties that merely provide external support (“gedoogsteun”) without holding ministerial positions will not qualify.

This market may resolve once the first government is officially announced and sworn in by the monarch, with ministers appointed under "non-caretaker circumstances."

If no government is formed by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or if another election is called without a government being formed this market will resolve to "No". 

The primary resolution source for this market will be the official announcements from the governing coalition; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Will D66 be part of the next Government of the Netherlands?

The ruling coalition of the Netherlands collapsed on June 3, 2025. New parliamentary elections are scheduled for October 29.

This market will resolve to the next individual who is officially appointed and sworn in as Prime Minister of the Netherlands following the 2025 parliamentary election.

To count for resolution, the individual must be formally sworn in. Any interim or caretaker Prime Minister will not count toward the resolution of this market.

If no such Prime Minister is sworn in by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of the Netherlands; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Will Rob Jetten become the next Prime Minister of the Netherlands?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the next Canadian federal election is officially scheduled for a date prior to October 2029, by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For this market to resolve to "Yes" it is only necessary that the election date be declared, not that the election actually occur within the market timeframe. (e.g. if on December 23, 2025 an election is scheduled for November 23, 2026, this market will resolve to "Yes").

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the Canada, However a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Another Canada election called by June 30?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Mark Carney announces he is resigning as head of the Liberal Party of Canada or otherwise ceases to be head of the Liberal Party of Canada for any length of time between April 28, and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET (inclusive). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

An announcement of Mark Carney's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.

The primary resolution source for this market will be information from Mark Carney or the Liberal Party of Canada, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Mark Carney out as leader of Liberals in 2025?

Legislative elections are schedule to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026. 

This market will resolve to the next individual who is officially appointed and sworn in as Prime Minister of Israel following the 2026 parliamentary election. If an election is called early, this market will immediately resolve to the individual who is officially appointed and sworn in after that election.

To count for resolution, the individual must be formally sworn in. Any interim or caretaker Prime Minister will not count toward the resolution of this market.

If no such Prime Minister is sworn in by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of Israel; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?

Parliamentary elections are expected to be held in Hungary in April or May 2026.

This market will resolve to the individual who is next officially appointed and confirmed as Prime Minister of Hungary following the 2026 parliamentary election.

To count for resolution, the individual must be formally elected and appointed to the role of Prime Minister. Any interim or caretaker Prime Minister will not count toward the resolution of this market.

If no such Prime Minister is confirmed by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other.”

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of Hungary; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar?

Legislative elections are expected to be held in Thailand on February 8, 2026.

This market will resolve to the next individual who is officially selected and appointed to be Prime Minister of Thailand following the 2026 general legislative election.

To count for resolution, the individual must be formally selected for the role of Prime Minister and appointed to the role by the king of Thailand. Any interim or caretaker Prime Minister will not count toward the resolution of this market.

If no such Prime Minister is selected and appointed by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other.”

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of Thailand; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Will Anutin Charnvirakul be the next prime minister of Thailand?

The Thai House of Representatives was dissolved on December 12, 2025, triggering a snap legislative election within 45-60 days to elect members of the Thai House of Representatives (Sapha Phuthaen Ratsadon).

This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the Thai House of Representatives as a result of this election.

If voting in the Thai legislative election does not occur by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition which received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.

This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition in the Thai House of Representatives.

This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Thai government, specifically the Thai Election Commission.

Will People’s Party (PPLE) win the most seats in the 2026 Thai legislative election?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if an America Party candidate wins a U.S. federal congressional or state gubernatorial election by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. 

The candidate may appear on the ballot as “America Party,” “Independent,” or with no party listed, as long as they have formally declared their affiliation with the America Party.

Expressions of interest, financial donations, or statements of ideological sympathy will not alone qualify unless accompanied by a clear claim of party affiliation.

Candidates listed on the ballot as members of another established party (e.g., Democrats, Republicans, Libertarians, etc.) will not qualify, even if they express support for or claim affiliation with the American Party or Elon Musk.

This market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting.

America Party wins a federal or gubernatorial election in 2025?

Legislative elections are expected to be held in Thailand in January or February, 2026. The Thai House of Representatives will select the next Prime Minister of Thailand following this election.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the next prime minister of Thailand is officially selected by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

Any prime minister formally selected by passing a vote in the Thai House of Representatives within this market’s timeframe will count, regardless of whether they have been officially appointed by the King of Thailand. Any interim or caretaker Prime Minister will not count toward the resolution of this market.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of Thailand; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Next Thai Prime Minister Chosen by March 31?

This market will resolve according to the party that controls the House of Representatives following the 2026 U.S. House elections scheduled for November 3, 2026.

House control is defined as having more than half of the voting members of the U.S. House of Representatives.

If the outcome of this election is ambiguous given the above rules, this market will remain open until the Speaker of the House is selected following the 2026 U.S. general election, at which point it will resolve to the party the Speaker is affiliated with at the time of their election to that position. If the elected Speaker does not caucus with any listed party this market will resolve “Other”.

Determination of which party controls the House after the 2026 U.S. House elections will be based on a consensus of credible reporting, or if there is ambiguity, final federal and/or state election authority certification or other final official determination of the 2026 election results.

Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the date of the next French legislative election is declared by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For this market to resolve to "Yes" it is only necessary that the election date be declared, not that the election actually occur within the market timeframe.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the France, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.


French election called by June 30, 2026?

This market will resolve according to the combined outcome of whether enhanced ACA premium tax credits will be extended in 2025 (https://polymarket.com/event/enhanced-aca-premium-tax-credits-extended-in-2025?) and according to which party will win the House in 2026 (https://polymarket.com/event/which-party-will-win-the-house-in-2026?).

The rules and resolution criteria are as follows:

1. Enhanced ACA premium tax credits extended in 2025?
Affordable Care Act (ACA) enhanced premium tax credits are set to expire at the end of 2025 if not extended by the federal government.

This market will resolve according to whether a bill extending the enhanced ACA premium tax credits beyond 2025 is signed into federal law by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. 

A qualifying bill may extend the enhanced ACA premium tax credits in any form, including shorter extensions, phased-down benefits, or narrowed eligibility, as long as the bill clearly continues enhanced premium tax credits that have wider eligibility and/or lower required income contributions relative to baseline ACA premium tax credits that would otherwise apply after 2025.

A bill replacing the ACA enhanced premium tax credits with an alternative form of healthcare subsidy, such as direct cash payments to a health savings account, will not qualify.

If the bill is signed into law before 2026, it will qualify to resolve this market, regardless of when it takes effect.

The primary source of resolution will be official information from the US federal government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

2. Which party will win the House in 2026?
This market will resolve according to the party that controls the House of Representatives following the 2026 U.S. House elections scheduled for November 3, 2026.

House control is defined as having more than half of the voting members of the U.S. House of Representatives.

If the outcome of this election is ambiguous given the above rules, this market will remain open until the Speaker of the House is selected following the 2026 U.S. general election, at which point it will resolve to the party the Speaker is affiliated with at the time of their election to that position. If the elected Speaker does not caucus with any listed party this market will resolve “Other”.

Determination of which party controls the House after the 2026 U.S. House elections will be based on a consensus of credible reporting, or if there is ambiguity, final federal and/or state election authority certification or other final official determination of the 2026 election results.

Will ACA premium tax credits not be extended and will the Democratic Party win the House in 2026?

Parliamentary elections are to be scheduled to be held in Hungary in early April 2026.

This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the next Hungarian National Assembly (Országgyűlés) election. 

If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.

This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition in the Hungarian Parliament. If a named coalition dissolves, this market will resolve based on the seat total of the constituent party within that coalition that held the largest number of seats before the election.

This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Hungarian government, specifically the Hungarian Election Authority (Nemzeti Választási Iroda) (valasztas.hu).

Will TISZA – Respect and Freedom Party (TISZA) win the most seats in the next Hungarian parliamentary election?

This market will resolve according to the first individual that ceases to occupy their listed office.

An announcement of a resignation/removal, or a scheduled departure from office due to the outcome of an election will not alone qualify.

Only permanent removal from office will qualify for resolution. Temporary removals, such as impeachment suspensions (e.g., Yoon Suk Yeol's recent impeachment), temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment, or any similar provisional transfers of power, will not count.

Additionally, if an individual continues in a caretaker or interim role (e.g., Gabriel Attal remaining as caretaker Prime Minister of France), they will not be considered to have ceased occupying the office for the purposes of this market.

If this criteria has not been met for any of the listed individuals by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”. No additional individuals will be added to this market after its creation.

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Will Dick Schoof be the next leader out before 2027?

Parliamentary elections are expected to be held in Latvia on October 3, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the listed political party or coalition that wins the greatest number of seats in the Latvian Parliament (Saeima) in the next Latvian Parliamentary election. 

In the event of a tie between multiple parties/coalitions for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.

This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition in the Latvian Parliament. If a named coalition dissolves and does not contest this election, the corresponding market will resolve based on the number of seats won by the constituent party within that coalition that held the largest number of seats before the election.

If the results of this election are not known definitively by June 30, 2027 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Latvian government, specifically the Latvian Central Election Commission (https://www.cvk.lv/lv).

Will Jaunā Vienotība (JV) win the most seats in the 2026 Latvian parliamentary election?

This market will resolve according to the combined outcome of whether there will be another US government shutdown by January 31 (https://polymarket.com/event/will-there-be-another-us-government-shutdown-by-january-31?) and according to which party will win the House in 2026 (https://polymarket.com/event/which-party-will-win-the-house-in-2026?).

The rules and resolution criteria are as follows:

1. Will there be another US government shutdown by January 31?
This market will resolve according to whether the U.S. Office of Personnel Management (OPM) announces another federal government shutdown due to a lapse in appropriations by January 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

Partial shutdowns count as shutdowns; announcements of office closures due to holidays or inclement weather do not qualify as a shutdown.

The resolution source for this market will be OPM’s Operating Status page (https://www.opm.gov/policy-data-oversight/snow-dismissal-procedures/current-status/).

2. Which party will win the House in 2026?
This market will resolve according to the party that controls the House of Representatives following the 2026 U.S. House elections scheduled for November 3, 2026.

House control is defined as having more than half of the voting members of the U.S. House of Representatives.

If the outcome of this election is ambiguous given the above rules, this market will remain open until the Speaker of the House is selected following the 2026 U.S. general election, at which point it will resolve to the party the Speaker is affiliated with at the time of their election to that position. If the elected Speaker does not caucus with any listed party this market will resolve “Other”.

Determination of which party controls the House after the 2026 U.S. House elections will be based on a consensus of credible reporting, or if there is ambiguity, final federal and/or state election authority certification or other final official determination of the 2026 election results.

Will there be no US government shutdown by January 31 and will the Democratic Party win the House in 2026?

This market will resolve according to the party that controls the Senate following the 2026 U.S. Senate elections scheduled for November 3, 2026.

Senate control is defined as having more than half of the voting Senate members, or half of the voting Senate members and the Vice Presidency.

If the outcome of this election is ambiguous given the above rules, this market will remain open until the Majority Leader of the US Senate is selected following the 2026 US general election, at which point it will resolve to the party the majority leader is affiliated with at the time of their election to that position. If the elected majority leader does not caucus with any listed party this market will resolve “Other”.

Determination of which party controls the Senate after the 2026 US Senate elections will be based on a consensus of credible reporting, or if there is ambiguity, final federal and/or state election authority certification or other final official determination of the 2026 election results.

Will the Republican Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?

Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Scotland on May 7, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the Scottish Parliament  in this election.

If voting in the Scottish parliamentary election does not occur by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition which received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.

This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition in the Welsh Parliament. 

This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Welsh government, specifically the the Electoral Commission of Scotland (https://www.electoralcommission.org.uk/).

Will Scottish National Party win the most seats in the 2026 Scottish Parliament election?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if an America Party candidate appears on an official ballot in a U.S. federal congressional or state gubernatorial election by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. 

The candidate may appear on the ballot as “America Party,” “Independent,” or with no party listed, as long as they have formally declared their affiliation with the America Party.

Expressions of interest, financial donations, or statements of ideological sympathy will not alone qualify unless accompanied by a clear claim of party affiliation.

Candidates listed on the ballot as members of another established party (e.g., Democrats, Republicans, Libertarians, etc.) will not qualify, even if they express support for or claim affiliation with the American Party or Elon Musk.

This market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting.

America Party candidate on a federal or gubernatorial ballot in 2025?

The next French presidential election is currently expected to be held around April 2027.  This market pertains to the outcome of the next French presidential election, regardless of whether it follows the scheduled end of the current term or is held earlier. 

The President of France is elected via a two-round system; a candidate must secure over 50% of the vote to win outright in the first round. If no candidate achieves this, the top two contenders advance to a runoff.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.

This market includes any potential second round. If, for any reason, the results of the election are not known by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the French Government, specifically the Ministry of the Interior (https://www.interieur.gouv.fr/).

Will Jordan Bardella win the 2027 French presidential election?

This market will resolve according to the result of the 2026 United States midterm elections.

A party will be considered to have 'control' of the House of Representatives, if they win a majority of voting seats.

A party will be considered to have 'control' of the Senate if they have more than half of the voting Senate members, or half of the voting Senate members and the Vice President.

A candidate's party is determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time the 2026 United States midterm elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican Parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party that they most recently expressed their intent to caucus with at the time the 2026 United States midterm elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.

If control of the House is ambiguous given the above rules, this market will resolve according to the party affiliation of the first Speaker of the US House who is selected following the 2026 United States midterm elections. 

If control of the Senate is ambiguous given the above rules, this market will resolve according to the party affiliation of the first Majority Leader of the US Senate who is selected following the 2026 United States midterm elections.

The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called winners of the House and Senate in the 2026 United States midterm elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on the official certification.

2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, D House

Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Wales on May 7, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the Welsh Parliament (Senedd) in this election.

If voting in the Welsh parliamentary election does not occur by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition which received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.

This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition in the Welsh Parliament. 

This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Welsh government, specifically the Senedd Commission of Wales  (https://senedd.wales/).

Will Plaid Cymru win the most seats in the 2026 Welsh Senedd election?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the next Romanian parliamentary election is officially scheduled between July 10 and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."

This market is about whether a date for the next Romanian parliamentary election is formally announced within the stated timeframe. The date the election is scheduled to take place on will have no effect on the resolution to this market.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of Romania, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Romania Parliamentary Election called in 2025?

Parliamentary elections to elect all 125 seats of the National Assembly of Quebec are scheduled to take place in Quebec on October 5, 2026.

This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the National Assembly of Quebec as a result of this election.

If voting in the 2026 Quebec general election does not occur by January 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other".

In the event of a tie for the most seats won between this party and any other, this market will resolve in favor of the party that won the most valid votes in the respective election. If this also results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order.

This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party.

This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Élections Québec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca).

Will Parti Québécois win the most seats in the 2026 Quebec general election?

Parliamentary elections are to be scheduled to be held in Somaliland in late March 2026.

This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the next Somaliland House of Representatives (Golaha Wakiilada) election. 

If no election takes place by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No election before 2027".

If an election takes place but the results are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will remain open until the certified results are released. If the results are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.

This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the Somaliland Parliament. 

This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Somaliland government, specifically the Somaliland National Electoral Commission (Komishanka Doorashooyinka Qaranka) (slnec.net).

Will the Waddani Party (Somaliland National Party) win the most seats in the next Somaliland parliamentary election?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the governing coalition consisting of CDU/CSU and SPD breaks by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM CET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”

For the purposes of this market, the coalition is considered broken if either CDU/CSU or SPD ceases to be a coalition partner in the federal government.

A coalition break may be evidenced by:
– a formal withdrawal from the coalition,
– the resignation or dismissal of all ministers from one party,
– or the appointment of a new federal government.

If all ministers affiliated with one of the coalition parties resign or are dismissed, this may signal that party’s withdrawal from the coalition, even if one or more individuals remain in office as independents or continue without representing the party.

If the coalition breaks and the sitting Chancellor remains in office with a new coalition or as a minority government, this market will still resolve to “Yes.”

The break date is the date on which it becomes officially confirmed that the coalition has broken; mere reports of negotiations, speculation, or indications of an impending break will not suffice.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the German government; however, a consensus of credible reporting from major reputable news outlets may also be used.

Will CDU/CSU–SPD German federal coalition break before 2027?

Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Sweden on September 13, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the Swedish Parliament (Riksdag) in this election.

If voting in the Swedish parliamentary election does not occur by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition which received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.

This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition in the Swedish Parliament. 

This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Swedish government, specifically the Swedish Election Authority (Valmyndigheten) (https://www.val.se/).

Will the Swedish Social Democratic Party (S) win the most seats in the 2026 Swedish parliamentary election?

Taiwanese local elections are scheduled to be held on November 28, 2026. 

This market will resolve according to the party whose official candidates win the most head of local government (mayor or magistrate) elections for Taiwan’s major special municipalities, counties, and cities during these elections.

A candidate will be considered an official candidate of a party if they are officially nominated by that party and are registered for the relevant election in affiliation with that party. Independent candidates will not count for any party.

Taiwan’s local governments include the following cities, special municipalities, and counties:

Cities/special municipalities (mayoral elections): Taipei City, New Taipei City, Taoyuan City, Taichung City, Tainan City, Kaohsiung City, Keelung City, Hsinchu City, Chiayi City

Counties (magistrate elections): Yilan County, Hsinchu County, Miaoli County, Changhua County, Nantou County, Yunlin County, Chiayi County, Pingtung County, Taitung County, Hualien County, Penghu County, Lienchiang County, Kinmen County

Only elections for the listed cities, special municipalities or counties will be counted for this market. A party will have won as soon as it becomes mathematically impossible for any other party to equal or surpass its number of wins in these elections.

In the case of a tie between two or more parties for the greatest number of relevant head of local government elections won, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose English name comes first in alphabetical order, as listed in this market group.

Resolution of this market will be based on the results of the relevant elections, once those results are official. This market will remain open until a party has won or until the results of all of the relevant elections are made official. If the results of any of the relevant 2026 Taiwanese local elections aren’t known by June 30, 2027 11:59 PM ET, the winning party will be determined based on the available results up to that point. If none of the results of the relevant 2026 Taiwanese local elections are known by that time, this market will resolve to “Other”.

This market will resolve based on the results of the elections as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Taiwanese government, specifically the Central Election Commission (https://db.cec.gov.tw/).

Will Kuomintang (KMT) win the most head of local government elections in the 2026 Taiwan local elections?

Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetehaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026.

This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the formal deliberative assembly of Berlin (Abgeordnetenhaus) as a result of this election.

If voting in the Berlin election for the Abgeordnetenhaus does not occur by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other".

In the case of a tie between this party or coalition and any other for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order.

This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition.

This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/)


Will CDU win the most seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the date for the next Polish parliamentary election is set between June 2 and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

This market is about whether a date for the next Polish election is announced within the stated timeframe. The date the election is scheduled to take place on will have no effect on the resolution to this market.

The primary resolution source for this market is official information from the Government of Poland however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Polish snap election called in 2025?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Keir Starmer ceases to be the Prime Minister of the United Kingdom for any period of time between November 5, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

An announcement of Keir Starmer's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.

The resolution source for this market will be the government of the UK, however a consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.

Starmer out by December 31, 2026?

The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the party distribution of governors as a result of the 2026 midterm elections.

This market will resolve based on the results of all gubernatorial elections, including special elections, that are scheduled to occur in November 2026 as of October 31, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that runoff is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources.

If a governorship is vacant but a corresponding election will not be held in November 2026, that seat will be considered held by the party of the seat's most recent incumbent.

A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the November 2026 gubernatorial elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.

The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called all relevant gubernatorial elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on the official certification.

Will the Republican Party hold exactly 24 or 25 governorships after the 2026 midterm elections?

General elections are scheduled to be held in Ethiopia on June 1, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the next Ethiopian House of Peoples' Representatives election. 

If the results are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.

This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the Ethiopian Parliament.

This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Ethiopian government, specifically the National Election Board of Ethiopia (NEBE) (nebe.org.et/en).

Will the Prosperity Party (Prosperity) win the most seats in the 2026 Ethiopian general election?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if a referendum on Alberta's independence from Canada is passed by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM.

Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Any referendum that establishes Alberta's desire for independence, sets a framework for independence, or establishes independence from Canada will qualify.

The primary resolution source for this market is official information from the government of Alberta, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Will Alberta vote for independence in 2025?

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TX-35 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.

​​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.

This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).

Will the Republican Party win the TX-35 House seat?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the next Japanese general election is scheduled between November 10, 2025, and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

This market is about whether a date for the next Japanese election is announced within the stated timeframe. The date the election is scheduled to take place will have no effect on the resolution of this market.

The primary resolution source for this market is official information from the Government of Japan; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Japanese Snap Election Called by June 30, 2026?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the 25th Knesset, which is the sitting parliament of Israel, is dissolved between May 12 and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source for this market is official information from the State of Israel, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.


Israel parliament dissolved in 2025?

The 2025 Central African Republic general election is scheduled to be held on December 28, 2025, to elect the 140 members of the National Assembly (CAR’s unicameral parliament).

This market will resolve according to the party that controls the most seats in the Central African Republic National Assembly as a result of the next Central African parliamentary election.

If initial voting in the next Central African parliamentary election does not occur by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

This market may remain open to consider any second-round votes held to determine winners in individual single-member constituencies, as long as the remaining undecided seats can still change which party wins the most seats overall, or maximally until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, after which the market will resolve based on the results available at that time.

In the case of a tie between this party and any other for the most seats held, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order.

This market’s resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by this party, not any coalition of which it may be a part.

This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Government of the Central African Republic, specifically the National Elections Authority (https://www.ane-rca.org/).

Will the United Hearts Movement win the most seats in the 2025 Central African Republic National Assembly election?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Pakistan’s Prime Minister, Shehbaz Sharif, is removed from power for any length of time between January 1 and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif will be considered removed from power if he announces his resignation, is dismissed, detained, disqualified, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from fulfilling his duties as Prime Minister of Pakistan within this market's timeframe.

The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Next Government of Australia

Labor majority
$1,633,443 Vol.
Yes

Labor minority
$683,791 Vol.
No

Liberal–National majority
$548,073 Vol.
No

Liberal–National minority
$442,236 Vol.
No

Other
$55,434 Vol.
No

Market Context

Next Government of Australia

Rules

Next Government of Australia

Market Context

Next Government of Australia

About

Related

Next Government of Australia

Labor majority$1,633,443 Vol.Yescircle check

Labor minority$683,791 Vol.Nocircle xmark

Liberal–National majority$548,073 Vol.Nocircle xmark

Liberal–National minority$442,236 Vol.Nocircle xmark

Other$55,434 Vol.Nocircle xmark

Market Context

Next Government of Australia

Rules

Next Government of Australia

Market Context

Next Government of Australia

About

Related

Labor majority
$1,633,443 Vol.
Yes

Labor minority
$683,791 Vol.
No

Liberal–National majority
$548,073 Vol.
No

Liberal–National minority
$442,236 Vol.
No

Other
$55,434 Vol.
No