New York Governor Republican Primary Winner

Name: New York Governor Republican Primary Winner
Start: 2025-12-04T23:28:54.397Z
End: 2026-06-23T00:00:00.000Z

Elections·Primaries

New York Governor Republican Primary Winner

Bruce Blakeman 92%

Pat Hahn 4.4%

Elise Stefanik 2.7%

David Tulley <1%

$29,411 Vol.

Jun 23, 2026

Bruce Blakeman

$10,279 Vol.

92%

Pat Hahn

$2,568 Vol.

Elise Stefanik

$11,230 Vol.

David Tulley

$3,515 Vol.

Betsy McCaughey

$1,819 Vol.

<1%

Bruce Blakeman 92%

Pat Hahn 4.4%

Elise Stefanik 2.7%

David Tulley <1%

$29,411 Vol.

Jun 23, 2026

Bruce Blakeman

$10,279 Vol.

92%

Pat Hahn

$2,568 Vol.

Elise Stefanik

$11,230 Vol.

David Tulley

$3,515 Vol.

Betsy McCaughey

$1,819 Vol.

<1%

This market will resolve according to the winner of the Republican Primary for Governor of New York, scheduled to take place on June 23, 2026. Resolution will be based on the overall winner of the primary, including any potential second round or run-off. If no 2026 New York Gubernatorial Republican Primary takes place, this market will resolve to “Other.” The resolution source for this market will be the first official announcement of the results from the New York Republican Party; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.

Bruce Blakeman's commanding 91.5% implied probability in the 2026 New York Republican gubernatorial primary stems from his entrenched position as Nassau County Executive, robust fundraising exceeding $2 million early, and endorsements from key suburban GOP figures, positioning him as the establishment choice in a competitive field. Recent polls, such as a Siena survey showing him leading with 28% support, alongside minimal traction from challengers like Pat Hahn and Elise Stefanik—who remains focused on her congressional role—bolster trader consensus on his dominance. Upsets could arise from Stefanik entering the race with national Trump-aligned backing, a major scandal hitting Blakeman, or late surges via Trump endorsement shifts ahead of the June 2026 primary.

Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated Mar 22, 2026, 7:12 PM UTC

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Frequently Asked Questions

"New York Governor Republican Primary Winner" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 5 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Bruce Blakeman" at 92%, followed by "Pat Hahn" at 4%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 92¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 92% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "New York Governor Republican Primary Winner" has generated $29.4K in total trading volume since the market launched on Dec 4, 2025. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "New York Governor Republican Primary Winner," browse the 5 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "New York Governor Republican Primary Winner" is "Bruce Blakeman" at 92%, meaning the market assigns a 92% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Pat Hahn" at 4%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "New York Governor Republican Primary Winner" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.

Yes. You don't need to trade to stay informed. This page serves as a live tracker for "New York Governor Republican Primary Winner." The outcome probabilities update in real-time as new trades come in. You can bookmark this page and check the comments section to see what other traders are saying. You can also use the time-range filters on the chart to see how the odds have shifted over time. It's a free, real-time window into what the market expects to happen.

Polymarket odds are set by real traders putting real money behind their beliefs, which tends to surface accurate predictions. With $29.4K traded on “New York Governor Republican Primary Winner,” these prices aggregate the collective knowledge and conviction of thousands of participants — often outperforming polls, expert forecasts, and traditional surveys. Prediction markets like Polymarket have a strong track record of accuracy, especially as events approach their resolution date. For example, Polymarket has a one month accuracy score of 94%. For the latest stats on Polymarket’s prediction accuracy, visit the accuracy page on Polymarket.

To place your first trade on "New York Governor Republican Primary Winner," sign up for a free Polymarket account and fund it using crypto, a credit or debit card, or a bank transfer. Once your account is funded, return to this page, select the outcome you want to trade, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If you're new to prediction markets, click the "How it works" link at the top of any Polymarket page for a quick step-by-step walkthrough of how trading works.

On Polymarket, the price of each outcome represents the market's implied probability. A price of 92¢ for "Bruce Blakeman" in the "New York Governor Republican Primary Winner" market means traders collectively believe there is roughly a 92% chance that "Bruce Blakeman" will be the correct result. If you buy "Yes" shares at 92¢ and the outcome is correct, you receive $1.00 per share — a profit of 8¢ per share. If incorrect, those shares are worth $0.

The "New York Governor Republican Primary Winner" market is scheduled to resolve on or around Jun 23, 2026. This means trading will remain open and the odds will continue to shift as new information emerges until that date. The exact resolution timing depends on when the official result becomes available, as outlined in the "Rules" section on this page.

The "New York Governor Republican Primary Winner" market was recently created. Be one of the first to share your analysis by posting a comment below, or check back as the market grows to read what other traders think. You can also view the "Activity" tab for a real-time feed of recent trades.

Polymarket is the world's largest prediction market, where you can stay informed and profit from your knowledge of real-world events. Traders buy and sell shares on outcomes for topics ranging from politics and elections to crypto, finance, sports, tech, and culture, including markets like "New York Governor Republican Primary Winner." Prices reflect real-time, crowd-sourced probabilities backed by financial conviction, often providing faster and more accurate signals than polls, pundits, or traditional surveys.

New York Governor Republican Primary Winner

New York Governor Republican Primary Winner

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