Trader consensus heavily favors Atlanta Hawks guard Nickeil Alexander-Walker at 53% implied probability for NBA Most Improved Player, driven by his breakout from 9.4 PPG and 25 MPG last season to 20.4 PPG, 3.8 APG, and 33 MPG on 39% three-point shooting this year, including a March surge of 23.1 PPG that powered Atlanta's 15-1 run to a 42-33 record. Jalen Duren trails at 21% after efficiently boosting from 11.8 PPG to 19.5 PPG with 10.6 RPG on 65% FG for Detroit, highlighted by recent 25 PPG/11 REB averages, though his role expansion was less drastic. Deni Avdija's 3% reflects Portland's scoring leap to 25 PPG, but frontrunners dominate amid end-of-season award scrutiny.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · UpdatedNickeil Alexander-Walker 62%
Jalen Duren 33.0%
Deni Avdija 3.1%
Jalen Johnson 1.6%
$238,454 Vol.
$238,454 Vol.
Nickeil Alexander-Walker
53%
Jalen Duren
20%
Deni Avdija
3%
Jalen Johnson
2%
Andrew Nembhard
<1%
Amen Thompson
<1%
Ausar Thompson
<1%
Michael Porter Jr.
<1%
Kevin Porter
<1%
Scoot Henderson
<1%
Jaden Ivey
<1%
Gradey Dick
<1%
Alperen Sengun
<1%
Josh Giddey
<1%
Shaedon Sharpe
<1%
Nikola Jovic
<1%
Reed Sheppard
<1%
Brandon Miller
<1%
Chet Holmgren
<1%
Trey Murphy III
<1%
Carlton Carrington
<1%
Jonathan Kuminga
<1%
Taylor Hendricks
<1%
Bennedict Mathurin
<1%
Matas Buzelis
<1%
Derrick White
<1%
Payton Pritchard
<1%
Victor Wembanyama
<1%
Cam Whitmore
<1%
Jay Huff
<1%
Kyle Filipowski
<1%
Kel'el Ware
<1%
Ryan Rollins
<1%
Keyonte George
<1%
Nickeil Alexander-Walker 62%
Jalen Duren 33.0%
Deni Avdija 3.1%
Jalen Johnson 1.6%
$238,454 Vol.
$238,454 Vol.
Nickeil Alexander-Walker
53%
Jalen Duren
20%
Deni Avdija
3%
Jalen Johnson
2%
Andrew Nembhard
<1%
Amen Thompson
<1%
Ausar Thompson
<1%
Michael Porter Jr.
<1%
Kevin Porter
<1%
Scoot Henderson
<1%
Jaden Ivey
<1%
Gradey Dick
<1%
Alperen Sengun
<1%
Josh Giddey
<1%
Shaedon Sharpe
<1%
Nikola Jovic
<1%
Reed Sheppard
<1%
Brandon Miller
<1%
Chet Holmgren
<1%
Trey Murphy III
<1%
Carlton Carrington
<1%
Jonathan Kuminga
<1%
Taylor Hendricks
<1%
Bennedict Mathurin
<1%
Matas Buzelis
<1%
Derrick White
<1%
Payton Pritchard
<1%
Victor Wembanyama
<1%
Cam Whitmore
<1%
Jay Huff
<1%
Kyle Filipowski
<1%
Kel'el Ware
<1%
Ryan Rollins
<1%
Keyonte George
<1%
If the listed player is not announced as a finalist for the 2025–26 Most Improved Player, this market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the NBA. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Market Opened: Oct 22, 2025, 1:35 AM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.nba.com/awardsResolver
0x2F5e3684c...If the listed player is not announced as a finalist for the 2025–26 Most Improved Player, this market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the NBA. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Resolution Source
https://www.nba.com/awardsResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus heavily favors Atlanta Hawks guard Nickeil Alexander-Walker at 53% implied probability for NBA Most Improved Player, driven by his breakout from 9.4 PPG and 25 MPG last season to 20.4 PPG, 3.8 APG, and 33 MPG on 39% three-point shooting this year, including a March surge of 23.1 PPG that powered Atlanta's 15-1 run to a 42-33 record. Jalen Duren trails at 21% after efficiently boosting from 11.8 PPG to 19.5 PPG with 10.6 RPG on 65% FG for Detroit, highlighted by recent 25 PPG/11 REB averages, though his role expansion was less drastic. Deni Avdija's 3% reflects Portland's scoring leap to 25 PPG, but frontrunners dominate amid end-of-season award scrutiny.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
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