Name: MLB Trade Deadline: Who Gets Dealt?
Start: 2025-07-22T17:12:18.633887Z
End: 2025-07-31T00:00:00Z

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This is a polymarket to predict whether the listed players will be traded by the 2025 MLB trade deadline, scheduled for July 31, 2025, at 6:00 PM ET.

The market will resolve to "Yes" for a player if they are traded by their current MLB team to another MLB team before 6:00 PM ET on July 31, 2025. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No".

Waiver claims, minor league assignments, free agent signings, or retirements do not count as trades. Only official trades involving a player’s rights being transferred from one MLB team to another will qualify.

If a player is traded and the trade is voided before the deadline, the market will resolve to "No". If the trade is voided after the deadline, it will resolve to "Yes".

The primary resolution source will be MLB.com and other official MLB transaction records. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Marcell Ozuna

Ryan McMahon

Nolan Arenado

Adolis Garcia

Steven Kwan

Eugenio Suarez

Cedric Mullins

Mark Vientos

Jarren Duran

Sandy Alcantara

Seth Lugo

Zac Gallen

Emmanuel Clase

Josh Naylor

Ryan O'Hearn

MLB Trade Deadline: Who Gets Dealt?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Ja Morant of the Memphis Grizzlies is traded to another NBA team before December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. 

Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source for this market will be official information from the NBA, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.


Will Ja Morant be traded in 2025?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Tua Tagovailoa of the Miami Dolphins is traded to any other team before the start of the 2026-2027 NFL regular season. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

The 2026-2027 NFL regular season will have started once the first snap has taken place in any 2026-2027 NFL regular season game.

If Tua Tagovailoa is released, retires, is not on an NFL roster as of the resolution date, or otherwise remains on the Dolphins through the start of the 2026-2027 NFL regular season, this market will resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Miami Dolphins; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Tua Tagovailoa traded by next season?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if, by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, sports event contracts listed by a CFTC-regulated Designated Contract Market (DCM), whether accessed directly or through a Futures Commission Merchant (FCM), are legally prohibited or blocked for users in at least one U.S. state or nationwide. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."

A qualifying ban must have gone into effect during the market window and may occur through any of the following:

CFTC Action: A final order, rule, or directive under Regulation 40.11 or other CFTC authority that results in the removal or suspension of sports event contracts, either nationally or within one or more states.

Court Order or Judgment: A temporary restraining order, preliminary injunction, permanent injunction, or final judgment issued by a U.S. federal or state court that has the effect of suspending or terminating user access to sports event contracts in one or more states or nationwide. This includes situations where a court denies an exchange’s claim of federal preemption and thereby allows a state to enforce its gambling laws against sports event contracts while adjudication is pending, leading to blocked access in that state.

State Enforcement Upheld by Courts: If a state action (such as a cease-and-desist order or regulatory enforcement) is challenged on preemption grounds and the court declines to enjoin the state, resulting in blocked access to sports event contracts in that state, this will qualify.

To resolve “Yes,” the block or ban must actually take effect (users lose access or ability to trade/maintain positions). Mere announcements, proposed rules, or pending litigation without effect do not qualify.

Voluntary pauses or withdrawals by a DCM or FCM, absent legal compulsion, do not qualify.

If a qualifying block takes effect and is implemented the market will still resolve “Yes” regardless if it is later stayed, reversed, or vacated. 

Actions ordered before the deadline but which take effect only after, will not qulaify. 

The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. 

Will sports prediction markets be banned in any U.S. state in 2025?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Supreme Court of the United States grants certiorari in a case explicitly concerning the legality, regulation, or jurisdictional authority over sports event contracts by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."

A case qualifies if it addresses at least one of the following: (1) whether contracts based on sporting event outcomes constitute regulated derivatives under the Commodity Exchange Act; (2) whether federal regulation via the Commodity Futures Trading Commission preempts state-level gambling laws as applied to such contracts; or (3) whether sports event contracts offered by federally licensed markets may legally be offered, restricted, or prohibited by federal or state authorities.

The certiorari grant must be publicly confirmed via the official SCOTUS docket or orders list, and verifiable through credible legal reporting or the Supreme Court’s official website. The case does not need to be heard, scheduled, or decided to qualify. 

The resolution source will be a consensus census of credible reporting. 

SCOTUS accepts sports event contract case by July 31, 2026?     

This market will resolve to "Yes" if President of the United States Donald Trump announces he has resigned or will resign the presidency by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."

If it becomes impossible for Donald Trump to resign or to announce his resignation (e.g., due to his removal from office by other means, etc.), this market will immediately resolve to "No."

For this market to resolve to "Yes," it is only necessary that Trump announce that he has resigned or will resign. Whether he actually resigns will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US federal government; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Will Trump resign by December 31, 2026?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump signs a bill into law or performs any executive action changing US tax law to eliminate the federal tax exemption on interest from municipal bonds by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

If the exemption is eliminated only for specific types or classes of municipal bonds (e.g., only newly issued bonds, only bonds from certain states or localities, or only bonds purchased after a certain date), it will still count toward a "Yes" resolution for this market.

If the bill is signed into law, or executive action is instituted before the resolution date, it will suffice to resolve this market to "Yes" regardless of when it takes effect.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US federal government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Will Trump remove municipal bond tax exemption in 2025?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States formally initiates a withdrawal from the World Trade Organization (WTO) or provides official written notice of withdrawal to the Director-General of the WTO by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

A notice of withdrawl refers to the submission of a written notice of withdrawal as per Article XV of the Marrakesh Agreement establishing the World Trade Organization (https://www.wto.org/english/res_e/publications_e/ai17_e/wto_agree_art15_oth.pdf).

Any action meeting these criteria will qualify for a “Yes” resolution regardless of if its implementation is immediately halted or delayed by judicial or other actions.

The resolution source will be official information from the US government and the WTO, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

US announces withdrawal from WTO in 2025?

This polymarket will resolve to "Yes" if the Cleveland Guardians, the team ownership, or Major League Baseball (MLB) officially announces that the team will change its name back to the Cleveland Indians by December 31, 2025, at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."

Only announcements of an official team name change to “Cleveland Indians,” or any name that explicitly includes the word “Indians” in the team name, will qualify. Speculative statements, informal statements of intent, or announcements of changes to mascots, logos, uniforms, or other team branding elements that do not constitute an official name change will not qualify.

Official announcements will qualify regardless of if or when the name change takes effect.

The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Will Cleveland change name to "Indians" in 2025? 

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States formally acquires any part of Canadian territory by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. 

Acquisition must be through official government action, such as annexation, treaty, or legislation.

The resolution source will be official information from the U.S. government however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.



Will the U.S. acquire Canadian territory in 2025?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Joe Burrow of the Cincinnati Bengals is traded to the New York Jets before the start of the first 2026 NFL preseason game. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

If Burrow is cut, retires, or is not on an NFL roster as of the resolution time, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source for this market will be official information from the Cincinnati Bengals and the New York Jets, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Joe Burrow traded to the Jets?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Abstract officially launches a token by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The token must be actively and publicly transferable and tradable. Announcements alone do not qualify

The primary resolution source for this market will be information from Abstract, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.


Will Abstract launch a token by December 31, 2026

This market will resolve to "Yes" if an official agreement on nuclear arms control or strategic nuclear weapons limitation is reached between the United States and the Russian Federation between December 9, 2025 and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

Only agreements that are publicly announced and acknowledged by both the U.S. and Russia will qualify. The agreement must pertain to nuclear arms control or limitation—such as a treaty, framework, or memorandum—addressing matters including (but not limited to) nuclear warheads, delivery systems, verification mechanisms, or strategic stability.

An extension, amendment, or replacement of the New START treaty will qualify, provided it is publicly announced as a concluded agreement by both parties within the time frame. Exploratory discussions or stated intent to extend without a finalized agreement will not qualify.

Agreements that include both the United States and Russia as named parties—whether bilateral or as part of a broader multilateral framework—will qualify, provided the agreement directly addresses nuclear arms control.

The agreement does not need to be ratified or implemented for this market to resolve "Yes"; a formal announcement of a concluded agreement is sufficient.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from the U.S. government (e.g., the White House, State Department) and/or the Russian Federation (e.g., the Kremlin, Ministry of Foreign Affairs). However, a clear and overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming that such an agreement has been reached will also qualify.

U.S. x Russia Nuclear deal by June 30?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if at least one seat on the United States Supreme Court becomes vacant between January 1 and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source for this market will be official announcements from the U.S. Government. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.  

MLB Trade Deadline: Who Gets Dealt?

Marcell Ozuna
$0 Vol.
No

Ryan McMahon
$225 Vol.
Yes

Nolan Arenado
$0 Vol.
No

Adolis Garcia
$0 Vol.
No

Steven Kwan
$0 Vol.
No

Eugenio Suarez
$457 Vol.
Yes

Cedric Mullins
$11 Vol.
Yes

Mark Vientos
$5 Vol.
No

Jarren Duran
$22 Vol.
No

Sandy Alcantara
$0 Vol.
No

Seth Lugo
$0 Vol.
No

Zac Gallen
$0 Vol.
No

Emmanuel Clase
$0 Vol.
No

Josh Naylor
$521 Vol.
Yes

Ryan O'Hearn
$10 Vol.
Yes

Market Context

MLB Trade Deadline: Who Gets Dealt?

Rules

MLB Trade Deadline: Who Gets Dealt?

Market Context

MLB Trade Deadline: Who Gets Dealt?

About

Related

MLB Trade Deadline: Who Gets Dealt?

Marcell Ozuna$0 Vol.Nocircle xmark

Ryan McMahon$225 Vol.Yescircle check

Nolan Arenado$0 Vol.Nocircle xmark

Adolis Garcia$0 Vol.Nocircle xmark

Steven Kwan$0 Vol.Nocircle xmark

Eugenio Suarez$457 Vol.Yescircle check

Cedric Mullins$11 Vol.Yescircle check

Mark Vientos$5 Vol.Nocircle xmark

Jarren Duran$22 Vol.Nocircle xmark

Sandy Alcantara$0 Vol.Nocircle xmark

Seth Lugo$0 Vol.Nocircle xmark

Zac Gallen$0 Vol.Nocircle xmark

Emmanuel Clase$0 Vol.Nocircle xmark

Josh Naylor$521 Vol.Yescircle check

Ryan O'Hearn$10 Vol.Yescircle check

Market Context

MLB Trade Deadline: Who Gets Dealt?

Rules

MLB Trade Deadline: Who Gets Dealt?

Market Context

MLB Trade Deadline: Who Gets Dealt?

About

Related

Marcell Ozuna
$0 Vol.
No

Ryan McMahon
$225 Vol.
Yes

Nolan Arenado
$0 Vol.
No

Adolis Garcia
$0 Vol.
No

Steven Kwan
$0 Vol.
No

Eugenio Suarez
$457 Vol.
Yes

Cedric Mullins
$11 Vol.
Yes

Mark Vientos
$5 Vol.
No

Jarren Duran
$22 Vol.
No

Sandy Alcantara
$0 Vol.
No

Seth Lugo
$0 Vol.
No

Zac Gallen
$0 Vol.
No

Emmanuel Clase
$0 Vol.
No

Josh Naylor
$521 Vol.
Yes

Ryan O'Hearn
$10 Vol.
Yes