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Sports·American League

MLB: 2026 AL Hank Aaron Winner

Market icon
Sports·American League

MLB: 2026 AL Hank Aaron Winner

Aaron Judge 24.3%

Yordan Alvarez 14%

Bobby Witt Jr. 13%

Gunnar Henderson 13%

Polymarket
NEW

Aaron Judge 24.3%

Yordan Alvarez 14%

Bobby Witt Jr. 13%

Gunnar Henderson 13%

Polymarket
NEW

Aaron Judge

$217 Vol.

24%

Yordan Alvarez

$0 Vol.

14%

Bobby Witt Jr.

$209 Vol.

13%

Gunnar Henderson

$0 Vol.

13%

Cal Raleigh

$3,334 Vol.

11%

Julio Rodríguez

$0 Vol.

10%

José Ramírez

$0 Vol.

7%

Vladimir Guerrero Jr.

$0 Vol.

6%

Nick Kurtz

$0 Vol.

6%

Corey Seager

$0 Vol.

4%

This market will resolve to the player who wins the 2026 American League Hank Aaron Award. In the event of a tie, this market will resolve according to the official winner as determined by MLB rules. If multiple winners are announced then this market will resolve to the player whose listed last name comes first alphabetically. If the 2026 MLB season is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or there is otherwise no winner declared within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “Other”. The resolution source for this market will be official information from Major League Baseball; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Aaron Judge and Yordan Alvarez share the American League home run lead with eight apiece through three weeks of the 2026 season, powering trader consensus to a tight cluster atop the Hank Aaron Award market—Judge at 18.5% implied probability, Raleigh at 15.5%, and Henderson at 15.0%. Alvarez's league-best 1.214 OPS, .328 batting average, and 18 RBIs underscore his well-rounded offensive dominance aligning with award criteria emphasizing slugging, on-base percentage, and production, while Henderson's six homers and 14 RBIs reflect emerging power. Raleigh lags statistically (.163 AVG, two HRs) but retains support from prior campaigns; Witt Jr.'s zero homers despite solid contact highlight small-sample volatility in this 162-game grind, fostering competitive pricing among pedigreed sluggers.

This market will resolve to the player who wins the 2026 American League Hank Aaron Award.

In the event of a tie, this market will resolve according to the official winner as determined by MLB rules. If multiple winners are announced then this market will resolve to the player whose listed last name comes first alphabetically.

If the 2026 MLB season is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or there is otherwise no winner declared within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “Other”.

The resolution source for this market will be official information from Major League Baseball; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$3,760
End Date
Nov 13, 2026
Market Opened
Feb 19, 2026, 2:15 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve to the player who wins the 2026 American League Hank Aaron Award. In the event of a tie, this market will resolve according to the official winner as determined by MLB rules. If multiple winners are announced then this market will resolve to the player whose listed last name comes first alphabetically. If the 2026 MLB season is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or there is otherwise no winner declared within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “Other”. The resolution source for this market will be official information from Major League Baseball; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve to the player who wins the 2026 American League Hank Aaron Award. In the event of a tie, this market will resolve according to the official winner as determined by MLB rules. If multiple winners are announced then this market will resolve to the player whose listed last name comes first alphabetically. If the 2026 MLB season is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or there is otherwise no winner declared within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “Other”. The resolution source for this market will be official information from Major League Baseball; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Aaron Judge and Yordan Alvarez share the American League home run lead with eight apiece through three weeks of the 2026 season, powering trader consensus to a tight cluster atop the Hank Aaron Award market—Judge at 18.5% implied probability, Raleigh at 15.5%, and Henderson at 15.0%. Alvarez's league-best 1.214 OPS, .328 batting average, and 18 RBIs underscore his well-rounded offensive dominance aligning with award criteria emphasizing slugging, on-base percentage, and production, while Henderson's six homers and 14 RBIs reflect emerging power. Raleigh lags statistically (.163 AVG, two HRs) but retains support from prior campaigns; Witt Jr.'s zero homers despite solid contact highlight small-sample volatility in this 162-game grind, fostering competitive pricing among pedigreed sluggers.

This market will resolve to the player who wins the 2026 American League Hank Aaron Award.

In the event of a tie, this market will resolve according to the official winner as determined by MLB rules. If multiple winners are announced then this market will resolve to the player whose listed last name comes first alphabetically.

If the 2026 MLB season is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or there is otherwise no winner declared within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “Other”.

The resolution source for this market will be official information from Major League Baseball; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$3,760
End Date
Nov 13, 2026
Market Opened
Feb 19, 2026, 2:15 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve to the player who wins the 2026 American League Hank Aaron Award. In the event of a tie, this market will resolve according to the official winner as determined by MLB rules. If multiple winners are announced then this market will resolve to the player whose listed last name comes first alphabetically. If the 2026 MLB season is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or there is otherwise no winner declared within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “Other”. The resolution source for this market will be official information from Major League Baseball; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

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Frequently Asked Questions

"MLB: 2026 AL Hank Aaron Winner" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 10 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Aaron Judge" at 24%, followed by "Yordan Alvarez" at 14%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 24¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 24% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

"MLB: 2026 AL Hank Aaron Winner" is a newly created market on Polymarket, launched on Feb 19, 2026. As an early market, this is your opportunity to be among the first traders to set the odds and establish the market's initial price signals. You can also bookmark this page to track volume and trading activity as the market gains traction over time.

To trade on "MLB: 2026 AL Hank Aaron Winner," browse the 10 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "MLB: 2026 AL Hank Aaron Winner" is "Aaron Judge" at 24%, meaning the market assigns a 24% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Yordan Alvarez" at 14%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "MLB: 2026 AL Hank Aaron Winner" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.