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Sports·American League

MLB: 2026 AL Hank Aaron Winner

Market icon
Sports·American League

MLB: 2026 AL Hank Aaron Winner

Gunnar Henderson 28%

Yordan Alvarez 27%

Cal Raleigh 19%

Bobby Witt Jr. 18%

Polymarket
NEW

Gunnar Henderson 28%

Yordan Alvarez 27%

Cal Raleigh 19%

Bobby Witt Jr. 18%

Polymarket
NEW

Gunnar Henderson

$0 Vol.

28%

Yordan Alvarez

$0 Vol.

27%

Cal Raleigh

$0 Vol.

19%

Bobby Witt Jr.

$0 Vol.

18%

Nick Kurtz

$0 Vol.

11%

Julio Rodríguez

$0 Vol.

10%

Corey Seager

$0 Vol.

9%

Vladimir Guerrero Jr.

$0 Vol.

7%

José Ramírez

$0 Vol.

7%

Aaron Judge

$0 Vol.

19%

This market will resolve to the player who wins the 2026 American League Hank Aaron Award. In the event of a tie, this market will resolve according to the official winner as determined by MLB rules. If multiple winners are announced then this market will resolve to the player whose listed last name comes first alphabetically. If the 2026 MLB season is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or there is otherwise no winner declared within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “Other”. The resolution source for this market will be official information from Major League Baseball; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Gunnar Henderson tops trader consensus at 39.5% implied probability for the 2026 AL Hank Aaron Award, fueled by his elite 2024 breakout—37 home runs, 111 RBI, .280/.364/.529 slash line, and Silver Slugger at shortstop—positioning the 24-year-old Orioles infielder as the consensus top projected AL hitter per ZiPS and Steamer projections amid Baltimore's contention window. Cal Raleigh (19%) gains from catcher-leading power (34 HRs in 2024) and Mariners' lineup protection, while Aaron Judge (18.9%) defends his 2024 Hank Aaron title but faces age-33 regression risks after 58 homers. Bobby Witt Jr. (17%) and Yordan Alvarez (13%) reflect sustained speed-power and slugging prowess, with Royals prospect Nick Kurtz (10.5%) hyped post-2024 draft dominance in minors, though Arizona's NL affiliation tempers AL path. Recent offseason projections and 2024 stat leaders drive this crowded top tier.

Gunnar Henderson tops trader consensus at 39.5% implied probability for the 2026 AL Hank Aaron Award, fueled by his elite 2024 breakout—37 home runs, 111 RBI, .280/.364/.529 slash line, and Silver Slugger at shortstop—positioning the 24-year-old Orioles infielder as the consensus top projected AL hitter per ZiPS and Steamer projections amid Baltimore's contention window. Cal Raleigh (19%) gains from catcher-leading power (34 HRs in 2024) and Mariners' lineup protection, while Aaron Judge (18.9%) defends his 2024 Hank Aaron title but faces age-33 regression risks after 58 homers. Bobby Witt Jr. (17%) and Yordan Alvarez (13%) reflect sustained speed-power and slugging prowess, with Royals prospect Nick Kurtz (10.5%) hyped post-2024 draft dominance in minors, though Arizona's NL affiliation tempers AL path. Recent offseason projections and 2024 stat leaders drive this crowded top tier.

Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
This market will resolve to the player who wins the 2026 American League Hank Aaron Award. In the event of a tie, this market will resolve according to the official winner as determined by MLB rules. If multiple winners are announced then this market will resolve to the player whose listed last name comes first alphabetically. If the 2026 MLB season is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or there is otherwise no winner declared within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “Other”. The resolution source for this market will be official information from Major League Baseball; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Gunnar Henderson tops trader consensus at 39.5% implied probability for the 2026 AL Hank Aaron Award, fueled by his elite 2024 breakout—37 home runs, 111 RBI, .280/.364/.529 slash line, and Silver Slugger at shortstop—positioning the 24-year-old Orioles infielder as the consensus top projected AL hitter per ZiPS and Steamer projections amid Baltimore's contention window. Cal Raleigh (19%) gains from catcher-leading power (34 HRs in 2024) and Mariners' lineup protection, while Aaron Judge (18.9%) defends his 2024 Hank Aaron title but faces age-33 regression risks after 58 homers. Bobby Witt Jr. (17%) and Yordan Alvarez (13%) reflect sustained speed-power and slugging prowess, with Royals prospect Nick Kurtz (10.5%) hyped post-2024 draft dominance in minors, though Arizona's NL affiliation tempers AL path. Recent offseason projections and 2024 stat leaders drive this crowded top tier.

Gunnar Henderson tops trader consensus at 39.5% implied probability for the 2026 AL Hank Aaron Award, fueled by his elite 2024 breakout—37 home runs, 111 RBI, .280/.364/.529 slash line, and Silver Slugger at shortstop—positioning the 24-year-old Orioles infielder as the consensus top projected AL hitter per ZiPS and Steamer projections amid Baltimore's contention window. Cal Raleigh (19%) gains from catcher-leading power (34 HRs in 2024) and Mariners' lineup protection, while Aaron Judge (18.9%) defends his 2024 Hank Aaron title but faces age-33 regression risks after 58 homers. Bobby Witt Jr. (17%) and Yordan Alvarez (13%) reflect sustained speed-power and slugging prowess, with Royals prospect Nick Kurtz (10.5%) hyped post-2024 draft dominance in minors, though Arizona's NL affiliation tempers AL path. Recent offseason projections and 2024 stat leaders drive this crowded top tier.

Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated

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Frequently Asked Questions

"MLB: 2026 AL Hank Aaron Winner" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 10 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Cal Raleigh" at 19%, followed by "Aaron Judge" at 19%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 19¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 19% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

"MLB: 2026 AL Hank Aaron Winner" is a newly created market on Polymarket, launched on Feb 19, 2026. As an early market, this is your opportunity to be among the first traders to set the odds and establish the market's initial price signals. You can also bookmark this page to track volume and trading activity as the market gains traction over time.

To trade on "MLB: 2026 AL Hank Aaron Winner," browse the 10 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "MLB: 2026 AL Hank Aaron Winner" is "Cal Raleigh" at 19%, meaning the market assigns a 19% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Aaron Judge" at 19%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "MLB: 2026 AL Hank Aaron Winner" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.