Name: Largest Company end of 2025?
Start: 2024-12-30T18:12:03.686955Z
End: 2025-12-31T12:00:00Z

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This is a market on predicting which company will be the largest by market capitalization on December 31, 2025.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Nvidia is the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31, 2025, as of market close. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.

NVIDIA

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Microsoft is the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31, 2025, as of market close. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Microsoft

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple is the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31, 2025, as of market close. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Apple

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Alphabet (GOOG) is the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31, 2025, as of market close. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Alphabet

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Tesla is the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31, 2025, as of market close. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Tesla

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Amazon is the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31, 2025, as of market close. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Amazon

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Saudi Aramco is the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31, 2025, as of market close. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Saudi Aramco

Largest Company

Largest Company end of 2025?

This market will resolve to the largest company in the world by market cap on February 28, 2025, as of market close. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Largest company end of February?

This is a market on predicting which company will be the largest by market capitalization on January 31, 2025.

Largest company on January 31?

This is a market over which company will be the largest by market cap at market close on September 30, 2024.

Largest company on September 30?

This is a market on predicting which company will be the largest by market capitalization at the end of the year.

Largest Company end of 2024?

This market will resolve to the largest company in the world by market cap on February 7, 2025, as of market close. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Largest company next Friday?

This market will resolve to the largest company in the world by market cap on March 31, 2025, as of market close. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Largest company end of March?

This market will resolve to the largest company in the world by market cap on April 30, 2025, as of market close. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.


Largest company end of April?

Largest company end of May?

This market will resolve to the largest company in the world by market cap on July 31, 2025, as of market close. 

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.


Largest company end of July?

This market will resolve to the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30, 2025, as of market close. 

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.


Largest company end of June?

This market will resolve to the largest company in the world by market cap on August 31, 2025, as of market close. 

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.


Largest company end of August?

This market will resolve to the largest company in the world by market cap on September 30, 2025, as of market close. 

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.


Largest company end of September?

This market will resolve to the largest company in the world by market cap on October 31, 2025, as of market close. 

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.

arch Largest company end of October?

Largest company end of October?

This market will resolve to the largest company in the world by market cap on November 30, 2025, as of market close.

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Largest Company end of November?

This market will resolve to the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30, 2026, as of market close.

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Largest Company end of June?

This market will resolve to the largest company in the world by market cap on March 31, 2026, as of market close.

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Largest Company end of March?

This market will resolve to the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31, 2026, as of market close.

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Largest Company end of December 2026?

This market will resolve to the largest company in the world by market cap on January 31, 2026, as of market close.

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Largest Company end of January?

This market will resolve to the third-largest company in the world by market cap on December 31, 2025, as of market close.

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Will Alphabet be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?

This market will resolve to the second-largest company in the world by market cap on January 31, 2026, as of market close.

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Will Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on January 31?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Brian Armstrong is no longer serving as CEO of Coinbase for any length of time from the date of this market's inception, December 29, 2024 through December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

An announcement of Brian Armstrong's resignation/firing before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/firing goes into effect.

This market's primary resolution source will be official information from Coinbase and/or Brian Armstrong, however a consensus of credible reporting sources will also be used.

Brian Armstrong out as Coinbase CEO in 2025?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the "Gross" column on https://www.boxofficemojo.com/year/2025/?grossesOption=calendarGrosses shows 'A Minecraft Movie' (2025) as the film with the highest 2025 gross once data for December 31 is made available. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Note: This market is about the movie's domestic calendar gross in 2025 - dates outside of 2025 will not count toward this movie's gross.

In the event of an exact tie the film that comes first alphabetically will be considered the winner.

If there is no final data available by January 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.

Will A Minecraft Movie be the top grossing movie of 2025?

This market will resolve according to the market cap of Trump Media & Technology Group Corp. (DJT) as of market close on December 31, 2025.

The market capitalization of Trump Media & Technology Group Corp. (DJT) will be determined by checking Google Finance’s “Market Cap” metric for DJT at the time of market close for December 31, 2025 (https://www.google.com/finance/quote/DJT:NASDAQ).

If the market capitalization falls exactly between two listed brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.

If Trump Media & Technology Group Corp. (DJT) changes its name or is merged into another entity before this market’s check time, this market will resolve based on the market capitalization of the successor entity.

The resolution source for this market will be Google Finance’s “Market Cap” metric for DJT (https://www.google.com/finance/quote/DJT:NASDAQ). If this resolution source is not available at this market’s check time, this market will remain open until it becomes available again and resolve based on the figure reported at that time. If this resolution source becomes permanently unavailable, another credible source will be chosen to resolve this market.

Will $DJT's market cap be at least 5b

This market will resolve to the company which owns the model that has the top LiveBench “coding average” score, as based off the LiveBench AI model leaderboard (https://livebench.ai/#/), on December 31, 2025, 12:00 PM ET. 

If two models are tied for the top LiveBench coding average score at this market's check time, resolution will be based on whichever company's name, as it is described in this market group, comes first in alphabetical order.

The primary source of resolution for this market will be LiveBench’s AI leaderboard, specifically the “coding average” category, found at livebench.ai. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.

Will OpenAI have the best AI model for coding at the end of 2025?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the combined weight of the Magnificent Seven stocks (Apple, Microsoft, Amazon, Google (Alphabet Class A and C), Meta, Tesla, and Nvidia) in the S&P 500 index, calculated using the official S&P 500 index weighting formula, falls below 25% on any trading day (using market close prices) by the last day of trading in 2025. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."

The resolution source for this market will be daily closes prices applied to the weighting formula for the S&P 500. 

Magnificent 7 shrinks below 25% of S&P 500 in 2025?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased by 3.1 percent or more over the 12 month period ending with any month in 2025 according to the monthly Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reports. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source for this market will be the BLS Consumer Price Index reports released for each month of 2025 (https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm). Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.

This market may not resolve to "No" until the December 2025 report is issued. Once the December 2025 report is issued, any revisions to previously released CPI figures will not be counted toward this market's resolution. If the CPI report for December 2025 is not issued by January 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on CPI figures which have already been made available by the BLS.

Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly BLS CPI news release which reports inflation over 12 month periods to only one decimal point (e.g. 2.9%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.

Will inflation reach more than 3% in 2025?

This market will resolve according to the named people no longer serving as CEOs of their respective companies for any length of time between November 17, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. 

An announcement of the named CEO's resignation/firing before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/firing goes into effect.

This market's primary resolution source will be official information from the named CEOs and their respective companies, however a consensus of credible reporting sources will also be used.

Tim Cook out as Apple CEO before 2027?

This market will resolve to the movie with the second highest 2025 gross once data for December 31 is made available.

Data from the "Gross" column on https://www.boxofficemojo.com/year/2025/?grossesOption=calendarGrosses will be used to resolve this market.

Note: This market is about the movie's domestic calendar gross in 2025 - dates outside of 2025 will not count toward this movie's gross.

In the event of an exact tie the film that comes first alphabetically will be considered the winner.

If there is no final data available by January 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.

Will Lilo and Stitch be the second highest grossing movie of 2025?

This market will immediately resolve to "Yes" if the USDT marketcap is equal to or greater than the value specified in the title on any day by December 31, 2025. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."

This market will resolve based on CoinGecko's "historical data" section for USDT, currently available at https://www.coingecko.com/en/coins/tether/historical_data#panel respectively, specifically the daily "Market Cap" data.

The daily market cap data for any given date will be considered finalized once data for the following calendar day is published on CoinGecko’s “Historical Data” page.

This market will resolve based on the specified CoinGecko chart, not according to other sources or spot markets.

Will USDT market cap hit $200B by December 31?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if The Second Coming of Jesus Christ occurs by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.

Will Jesus Christ return in 2025?

This is a market on how whether 'Wicked: For Good' (2025) will have the second-highest domestic gross on its opening weekend compared to all other movies released in 2025. The “Weekend Box Office Performance” table on https://www.the-numbers.com/movie/Wicked-For-Good-(2025)#tab=box-office will be used to resolve this market once the values for the 3-day opening weekend (November 21 - 23) are final (i.e. not studio estimates).

This market will resolve to "Yes" if 'Wicked: For Good' (2025) grosses the second-highest on its 3-day domestic opening weekend compared to any other movie in 2025. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend, regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.

Resolution will be based specifically on the figures provided for this movie's 3-day opening weekend (Friday, Saturday, Sunday), regardless of whether the movie has a 4 or 5-day opening weekend.

If two other movies' opening weekend box office performances surpass that of 'Wicked: For Good' (2025) after the respective numbers are finalized, this market may immediately resolve to "No".

If this movie's opening weekend box office performance ties with any other's, the movie whose title comes first in alphabetical order will rank higher.

If there is no final data available by January 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.

Will 'Wicked: For Good' have the second best domestic opening weekend in 2025?

This market will resolve to the movie with the third highest 2025 gross once data for December 31 is made available.

Data from the "Gross" column on https://www.boxofficemojo.com/year/2025/?grossesOption=calendarGrosses will be used to resolve this market.

Note: This market is about the movie's domestic calendar gross in 2025 - dates outside of 2025 will not count toward this movie's gross.

In the event of an exact tie the film that comes first alphabetically will be considered the winner.

If there is no final data available by January 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.

Will Superman be the third highest grossing movie of 2025?

This is a market on whether the market capitalization of Solana (SOL) will surpass that of Ethereum (ETH) within this market's timeframe, according to CoinGecko. This market will resolve based on CoinGecko's data for each coin, currently available at https://www.coingecko.com/en/coins/solana and https://www.coingecko.com/en/coins/ethereum respectively.

This market's timeframe spans from February 12, 2025, 10:00 AM ET, to December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET (inclusive).

This market will resolve to "Yes" if at any point within this market's timeframe SOL has a greater market cap than ETH according to CoinGecko. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

If CoinGecko stops showing relevant data through January 1, 2026, 12:00 PM ET, data from CoinMarketCap will be used instead.

Will SOL flip ETH in 2025?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Ethereum (ETH) is not the second or first largest cryptocurrency by market capitalization at any point between March 9, and December 31, 2025 ET, according to CoinGecko. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source will be CoinGecko. If CoinGecko becomes permanently unavailable, another credible source will be chosen. If there is ambiguity, a consensus of credible reporting will be used.

ETH flipped in 2025?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if SpaceX has between 160 (inclusive) and 179 (inclusive) launches in 2025. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No."

The resolution source is the FAA, specifically the number shown next to SpaceX when 2025 is selected here https://www.faa.gov/data_research/commercial_space_data.

Will SpaceX have between 160-179 launches in 2025?

This market will resolve according to the official closing price for Microsoft (MSFT) on the final trading day of 2025.

If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.

If the final trading day is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution. If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price.

In the event of a stock split, reverse stock split, or similar corporate action affecting the listed company during the listed time frame, this market will resolve based on split-adjusted prices as displayed on Yahoo Finance.

The target price will be adjusted proportionally to reflect any stock splits. Resolution will be based on the historical price data as shown on Yahoo Finance after any adjustments have been applied.

The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the Microsoft (MSFT) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/MSFT/history, published under "Historical Prices."

Will Microsoft (MSFT) close at $480–500 in 2025?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed company announces that it will file for bankruptcy or has filed for bankruptcy of any variety by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

An announcement will suffice for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether or not the actual filing occurs.

The announcement must be made through any of their official or verified channels, including a recorded or written statement by their CEO, legal representation, or any other individual or team that officially represents the company.

A definitive consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Will Workhorse announce bankruptcy before 2027?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if credible reporting confirms that any entity enters into an agreement to acquire the listed company by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

Mergers where the listed company is subsumed by another entity will count toward a "Yes" resolution.

An announced agreement between the listed company and an acquiring entity will qualify for a “Yes” resolution, regardless of whether the acquisition is ultimately completed.

The primary resolution source for this market is official information from the listed company and/or its leadership; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Will Nebius Group be acquired before 2027?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Colorado Avalanche win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

This market will resolve to “No” if it becomes impossible for this team to win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup based off the rules of the NHL.

The resolution source for this market will be information from the NHL.


Will the Colorado Avalanche win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup?

This market will resolve to the company that owns the model with the top LiveBench “coding average” score on the LiveBench AI model leaderboard (https://livebench.ai/#/) on March 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET. 

If two models are tied for the top LiveBench coding average score at this market's check time, resolution will be based on whichever company's name, as it is described in this market group, comes first in alphabetical order.

The primary source of resolution for this market will be LiveBench’s AI leaderboard, specifically the “coding average” category, found at livebench.ai. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.

Will Anthropic have the best AI model for coding on March 31?

This is a market on how whether 'Lilo & Stitch' (2025) will have the third-highest domestic gross on its opening weekend compared to all other movies released in 2025. The “Weekend Box Office Performance” table on https://www.the-numbers.com will be used to resolve this market once the values for the 3-day opening weekend are final (i.e. not studio estimates).

This market will resolve to "Yes" if 'Lilo & Stitch' (2025) grosses the third-highest on its 3-day domestic opening weekend compared to any other movie in 2025. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend, regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.

Resolution will be based specifically on the figures provided for this movie's 3-day opening weekend (Friday, Saturday, Sunday), regardless of whether the movie has a 4 or 5-day opening weekend.

If three other movies' opening weekend box office performances surpass that of 'Lilo & Stitch' (2025) after the respective numbers are finalized, this market may immediately resolve to "No".

If this movie's opening weekend box office performance ties with any other's, the movie whose title comes first in alphabetical order will rank higher.

If there is no final data available by January 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.

Largest Company end of 2025?

NVIDIA
$7,191,349 Vol.
96%
0123456789
%

Apple
$3,244,685 Vol.
3%
0123456789
%

Alphabet
$3,396,220 Vol.
<1%
0123456789
%

Microsoft
$2,872,292 Vol.
<1%
0123456789
%

Tesla
$11,637,882 Vol.
<1%

Amazon
$4,560,157 Vol.
<1%

Saudi Aramco
$25,059,341 Vol.
<1%

Market Context

Largest Company end of 2025?

Rules

Largest Company end of 2025?

Market Context

Largest Company end of 2025?

About

Related

Largest Company end of 2025?

NVIDIA$7,191,349 Vol.96%0123456789%buy Yes96.4¢buy No3.8¢

Apple$3,244,685 Vol.3%0123456789%buy Yes3.3¢buy No96.8¢

Alphabet$3,396,220 Vol.<1%0123456789%buy Yes0.4¢buy No99.7¢

Microsoft$2,872,292 Vol.<1%0123456789%buy Yes0.2¢buy No99.9¢

Tesla$11,637,882 Vol.<1%buy Yes0.1¢buy No0.0¢

Amazon$4,560,157 Vol.<1%buy Yes0.1¢buy No0.0¢

Saudi Aramco$25,059,341 Vol.<1%buy Yes0.1¢buy No0.0¢

Market Context

Largest Company end of 2025?

Rules

Largest Company end of 2025?

Market Context

Largest Company end of 2025?

About

Related

NVIDIA
$7,191,349 Vol.
96%
0123456789
%

Apple
$3,244,685 Vol.
3%
0123456789
%

Alphabet
$3,396,220 Vol.
<1%
0123456789
%

Microsoft
$2,872,292 Vol.
<1%
0123456789
%

Tesla
$11,637,882 Vol.
<1%

Amazon
$4,560,157 Vol.
<1%

Saudi Aramco
$25,059,341 Vol.
<1%