Name: John Thune out as Senate Majority leader by October 31?
Start: 2025-10-01T13:14:42.449116Z
End: 2025-10-31T00:00:00Z

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This market will resolve to "Yes" if John Thune announces that he will resign from his position as Senate Majority Leader, or otherwise ceases to be Senate Majority Leader for any length of time, between October 1, and October 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Note that an announcement of his resignation before the resolution date will suffice to resolve this market to "Yes" regardless of if/when he actually steps down.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of the United States of America or official statements by John Thune or his representative, however a consensus of credible reporting will suffice.

John Thune out as Senate Majority leader by October 31?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Chuck Schumer remains the Minority Leader of the United States Senate without interruption from November 14, 2025 through March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Will Schumer remain Minority Leader through March 31?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Chuck Schumer remains the Minority Leader of the United States Senate without interruption from March 17, 2025, through December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Will Schumer remain Minority Leader through 2025?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Mitch McConnell formally announces an intention to step down or otherwise vacates his U.S. Senate seat before his current term is scheduled to end (January 3, 2027, 11:59 PM ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”

An announcement will qualify only if it indicates that McConnell will leave office prior to the scheduled end of his term. Statements reaffirming an existing plan to retire at the end of his term will not qualify.

The primary resolution sources will be official statements from Mitch McConnell, his office or representatives, and/or official communications from the U.S. Senate or government.

Will Mitch McConnell step down from the Senate before his term ends?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Mike Johnson announces that he will resign from his position as Speaker of the US House of Representatives, or otherwise ceases to be Speaker for any length of time, between December 4, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Note that an announcement of his resignation before the resolution date will suffice to resolve this market to "Yes" regardless of if/when he actually steps down.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of the United States of America or official statements by Mike Johnson or his representative, however a consensus of credible reporting will suffice.

Mike Johnson out as Speaker by December 31?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if President of the United States Donald Trump announces he has resigned or will resign the presidency by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."

If it becomes impossible for Donald Trump to resign or to announce his resignation (e.g., due to his removal from office by other means, etc.), this market will immediately resolve to "No."

For this market to resolve to "Yes," it is only necessary that Trump announce that he has resigned or will resign. Whether he actually resigns will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US federal government; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Will Trump resign by December 31, 2026?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if John Fetterman announces that he will resign from his position as  United States senator from Pennsylvania, or otherwise ceases to be Senator for any length of time, between May 6, and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Note that an announcement of his resignation before the resolution date will suffice to resolve this market to "Yes" regardless of if/when he actually steps down.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of the United States of America or official statements by Fetterman or his representative, however a consensus of credible reporting will suffice.

Fetterman out in 2025?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if John Fetterman announces he is resigning as a US Senator from Pennsylvania or otherwise ceases to be a US Senator from Pennsylvania for any length of time between November 14, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

If John Fetterman announces he is resigning but remains in office to a point outside this market's timeframe, the announcement will still qualify for an immediate "Yes" resolution.

The primary resolution source for this market will be information from John Fetterman or the government of the US, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Fetterman out before 2027?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if any house of any US state legislature holds a vote, as part of its standard legislative process, on a bill, resolution, or constitutional amendment whose main purpose is for the state to secede from the United States, or to otherwise declare its support for such a secession, by June 30, 2026 ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

A qualifying measure must clearly state its purpose as part of a process for the state to leave, withdraw from, dissolve political ties with, declare independence from, or otherwise terminate its membership in the United States; measures which merely study, explore, or explain a possibility of secession or independence will not qualify. Informal measures of consensus taking such as straw polls or whip counts will not qualify toward this market's resolution.

A vote on a resolution or other statement without binding legal effect but declaring the state's explicit support for secession will qualify toward this market's resolution.

Only a vote taken by a full chamber will qualify toward this market's resolution. Votes held by committees/subcommittees, etc., will not qualify.

This market's primary resolution source will be official records of qualifying votes from relevant state governments, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Any US state legislature votes on secession by June 30, 2026?

This market will resolve according to the winner of the Democratic Primary for United States Senator from Minnesota.

If no 2026 Minnesota Democratic Senate Primary takes place, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be the first announcement of the results from the Minnesota Democratic party, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.

Will Angie Craig be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Minnesota?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if any Federal or State jurisdiction of the United States formally charges or otherwise announces a criminal indictment of Governor Tim Walz by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

For the purposes of this market the District of Columbia and any county, municipality, or other subdivision of a State shall be included within the definition of a State.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from US governmental sources, however a wide consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Tim Walz charged by March 31?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US Senate passes a motion to invoke cloture and end debate on any part of the legislative process, with such a cloture motion receiving Yea votes from fewer than three-fifths of the Senators by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve "No".

Confirmations are considered part of the Senate’s “advice and consent” function, not part of the Senate’s “legislative process,” and will therefore not count towards this market's resolution.

The resolution source for this market will be official information from the U.S. government.

GOP uses 'Nuclear Option' to break filibuster by March 31, 2026?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Keir Starmer ceases to be the Prime Minister of the United Kingdom for any period of time between November 5, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

An announcement of Keir Starmer's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.

The resolution source for this market will be the government of the UK, however a consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.

Starmer out by December 31, 2026?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if at least one seat on the United States Supreme Court becomes vacant between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source for this market will be official announcements from the U.S. Government. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.  

Supreme Court vacancy in 2026?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Robert F. Kennedy Jr. (RFK Jr.) announces that he will resign from his position as United States Secretary of Health and Human Services (HHS), or otherwise ceases to be HHS Secretary for any length of time, between September 5, and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Note that an announcement of his resignation before the resolution date will suffice to resolve this market to "Yes" regardless of if/when he actually steps down.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of the United States of America or official statements by RFK Jr. or his representative, however a consensus of credible reporting will suffice.

RFK Jr. Out by December 31?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if John Fetterman leaves the Democratic Party by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

This includes switching to the Republican Party, registering as an Independent, or affiliating with any other political party. An official announcement from Fetterman stating that he is leaving the Democratic Party or will no longer caucus with the Democrats will qualify, regardless of when the change takes effect.

The primary resolution source will be an official announcement from John Fetterman or a change in his registration in government records. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.


Will John Fetterman leave the Democratic Party in 2025?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if, between the Democratic Party and the Republican Party, the Democratic Party becomes the favorite in the "Which party will win the Senate in 2026?" market (https://polymarket.com/event/which-party-will-win-the-senate-in-2026?tid=1764796601244) for any four-hour period ending by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET or earlier. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

The Democratic Party will be considered to have become the favorite for any four-hour period if it is ahead of the Republican Party in more individual minutes than the Republican Party is ahead of the Democratic Party during a qualifying time period.

A tie in the number of minutes will not qualify.

The resolution source will be the underlying minute-level price data for the “Which party will win the Senate in 2026?” market, which can be viewed using the bar chart on https://derivative.polymarket.com/index/2026-us-senate-election-democrats-flip-republicans-by or through the “Resolution” tab with the time set to show the four-hour window. Both interfaces display the same underlying data.

Note: This market will resolve according to the price scoring methodology of derivative.polymarket.com.

2026 U.S. Senate Election: Democrats flip Republicans by March 31?

This market will resolve according to the party that controls the Senate following the 2026 U.S. Senate elections scheduled for November 3, 2026.

Senate control is defined as having more than half of the voting Senate members, or half of the voting Senate members and the Vice Presidency.

If the outcome of this election is ambiguous given the above rules, this market will remain open until the Majority Leader of the US Senate is selected following the 2026 US general election, at which point it will resolve to the party the majority leader is affiliated with at the time of their election to that position. If the elected majority leader does not caucus with any listed party this market will resolve “Other”.

Determination of which party controls the Senate after the 2026 US Senate elections will be based on a consensus of credible reporting, or if there is ambiguity, final federal and/or state election authority certification or other final official determination of the 2026 election results.

Will the Republican Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Trump administration announces a new nominee for Chair of the Federal Reserve by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

An announcement within this market’s timeframe from Donald Trump or the Trump administration stating their intent to nominate a specific individual for Chair of the Federal Reserve will suffice to resolve this market, regardless of whether a formal nomination actually occurs. 

Qualifying announcements must explicitly present the relevant individual as the nominee or future nominee for Chair of the Federal Reserve. Announcements of acting or interim appointments, or announcements which merely reveal potential candidates, will not qualify. Media reports, speculation, or other unofficial information will not qualify.

A formal presidential nomination of an individual to be Chair of the Federal Reserve, made before the listed date, 11:59 PM ET, will immediately resolve this market to “Yes”. Formal nominations are defined as the submission of a nomination message to the U.S. Senate.

The resolution sources for this market will be official announcements from Donald Trump or the Trump administration and official information from the U.S. Senate.

Will Donald Trump announce a new nominee for Chair of the Federal Reserve by March 31, 2026?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Graham Platner withdraws from or officially announces his withdrawal from the 2026 Maine U.S. Senate race, or announces the suspension of his 2026 Senate campaign, by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Graham Platner or his official/legal representatives, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Will Graham Platner drop out of Maine Senate race by December 31?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if, by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, any sitting member of the United States Congress resigns or is removed from their congressional seat and the cause of their departure is attributed to information contained in files related to Jeffrey Epstein released by the federal government during this market’s timeframe. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”

A qualifying resignation or removal must be caused by information included in newly released Epstein-related files. The cause of resignation or removal may be established through official statements from the departing Member of Congress or through a clear consensus of credible reporting. Resignations or removals driven by information already public before November 18, 2025, or by reasons unrelated to the content of the released Epstein-related files, will not qualify.

An announcement of resignation or removal made before April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET will qualify, even if the departure becomes effective afterward.

Only the resignation of a U.S. representative or Senator will count. The resignation or removal of a delegate to congress who does not hold full voting powers, e.g. Stacey Plaskett, will not count.

The resolution sources for this market will be official statements from the departing Member of Congress and a consensus of credible reporting.

U.S. Congress member out over Epstein files by April 30?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed individual officially announces that they are running for U.S. President in the 2028 United States presidential election by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

An announcement by the listed individual  will be sufficient to trigger a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they actually filed a nomination to run, or whether they actually file a nomination to run in the future.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements by the listed individual (ex: via speech, social media, etc.), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Will Corey Booker announce a Presidential run before 2027?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Susie Wiles ceases to be the White House Chief of Staff for any period of time between December 16, 2025, and the March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

An announcement of Wiles' resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.

The resolution source for this market will be official information from the Trump administration; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Susie Wiles out as White House Chief of Staff by March 31?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Kristi Noem ceases to be the U.S. Secretary of Homeland Security for any period of time between December 8, 2025, and the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

An announcement of Noem's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.

The resolution source for this market will be official information from the Trump administration; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Kristi Noem out as Secretary of Homeland Security by December 31?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelenskyy announces he has resigned or will resign the presidency by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."

If it becomes impossible for Volodymyr Zelenskyy to resign or to announce his resignation (e.g., due to his removal from office by other means, etc.), this market will immediately resolve to "No."

For this market to resolve to "Yes," it is only necessary that Zelenskyy announce that he has resigned or will resign. Whether he actually resigns will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Ukraine; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Zelensky resigns in 2025?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if at least one seat on the United States Supreme Court becomes vacant between January 1 and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source for this market will be official announcements from the U.S. Government. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.  

Supreme Court vacancy in 2025?

This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm South Dakota U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.

A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.

Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.

The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.

Will the Republicans win the South Dakota Senate race in 2026?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Pete Hegseth ceases to be the US Secretary of Defense for any period of time between December 1, 2025, and March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

An announcement of Hegseth's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.

The resolution source for this market will be official information from the Trump administration; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by March 31?

This market will resolve according to the winner of the Republican Primary for United States Senator from Minnesota.

If no 2026 Minnesota Republican Senate Primary takes place, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be the first announcement of the results from the Minnesota Republican party, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.

Will Royce White be the Republican nominee for Senate in Minnesota?

This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Minnesota U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.

A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.

Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.

The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.

Will the Democrats win the Minnesota Senate race in 2026?

This market will resolve according to the winner of the Democratic Primary for United States Senator from Maine.

If no 2026 Maine Democratic Senate Primary takes place, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be the first announcement of the results from the Maine Democratic party, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.

Will Graham Platner be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Maine?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Mark Carney announces he is resigning as head of the Liberal Party of Canada or otherwise ceases to be head of the Liberal Party of Canada for any length of time between April 28, and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET (inclusive). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

An announcement of Mark Carney's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.

The primary resolution source for this market will be information from Mark Carney or the Liberal Party of Canada, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Mark Carney out as leader of Liberals in 2025?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the “Yes” option for 'Republican Party' in the "Which party will win the Senate in 2026?" market  (https://polymarket.com/event/which-party-will-win-the-senate-in-2026?) is priced over the listed value for any four-hour period ending by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET or earlier. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

A tie in the number of minutes will not suffice.

The resolution source will be the underlying minute-level price data for 'Republican Party' in the "Which party will win the Senate in 2026?" market, which can be viewed using the bar chart on https://derivative.polymarket.com/index/2026-us-senate-election-republican-odds-over-70-by-march-31 or through the “Resolution” tab with the time set to show the four-hour window. Both interfaces display the same underlying data.

Note: This market will resolve according to the price scoring methodology of derivative.polymarket.com.

2026 U.S. Senate Election: Republican Odds over 70% by March 31?

This market will resolve according to the winner of the Democratic Primary for United States Senator from Iowa.

If no 2026 Iowa Democratic Senate Primary takes place, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be the first announcement of the results from the Iowa Democratic party, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.

Will Josh Turek be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Iowa?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if at least one cabinet-level Donald Trump appointee from his second term leaves their position by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Voluntary resignations, removals, retirements, or departures for any reason will count.

Announcements alone will not qualify toward this market's resolution. An individual must actually have left their cabinet-level position.

Temporary or acting officials will not count toward this market's resolution.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Trump cabinet member out by December 31, 2026?

This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Nebraska U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.

A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.

Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.

The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.

Will the Republicans win the Nebraska Senate race in 2026?

The 2026 midterm elections for the US Senate is scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026. 

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Republicans hold fewer seats in the Senate for any state that Trump won in the 2024 US presidential election as a result of the 2026 midterm elections. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". 

Initial seat counts will be based on the composition of the US Senate as of November 2, 2026, 11:59PM ET.

This market's resolution will be solely based on the number of seats held by the Republican Party in the US Senate for any state won by Trump in the 2024 Presidential election. The loss of particular seat will not count towards a resolution for this market; only the total number of seats held by the Republican Party in a given state will be considered. (e.g. The loss of one of a state's seats by the Republican Party followed by the gain of the other seat would not be sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes".)

​​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 Senate elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the Senate elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.

For the purposes of this market, states won by Trump in the 2024 Presidential election include Alabama, Alaska, Arizona, Arkansas, Florida, Georgia, Idaho, Indiana, Iowa, Kansas, Kentucky, Louisiana, Michigan, Mississippi, Missouri, Montana, Nebraska, Nevada, North Carolina, North Dakota, Ohio, Oklahoma, Pennsylvania, South Carolina, South Dakota, Tennessee, Texas, Utah, West Virginia, Wisconsin, and Wyoming. This list is determined by the winner of the electoral votes for each state in the 2024 Presidential election. In states such as Maine and Nebraska, where electoral votes are allocated separately by congressional districts as well as to the statewide winner, only the electoral votes allocated to the statewide winner are considered.

This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).

Will Republicans lose a seat in the US Senate for any state Trump won in 2024?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Liberal Party of Canada holds a majority of seats in the House of Commons for any period of time between December 12, 2025 and June 30, 2026, otherwise this market will resolve to "No".

This market will resolve to "No" if Parliament is dissolved before June 30, 2026. 

This markets resolution will be based solely on the number of seats held by the Liberal Party of Canada, not any alliance or coalition of which it may be a part.

The resolution source for this market will be official information from the Canadian government or a consensus of credible reporting.

John Thune out as Senate Majority leader by October 31?

Market Context

John Thune out as Senate Majority leader by October 31?

Rules

John Thune out as Senate Majority leader by October 31?

Market Context

John Thune out as Senate Majority leader by October 31?

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