Name: Italian Referendum
Start: 2025-05-02T15:32:34.316038Z
End: 2025-12-31T12:00:00Z

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This is a market on the outcomes of upcoming referendums in Italy.

This market refers to the referendum titled “Italian Citizenship: Reducing the required legal residence time in Italy for foreign non-EU adults applying for Italian citizenship from 10 years to 5 years.” (see: https://www.esteri.it/en/servizi-consolari-e-visti/italiani-all-estero/votoestero/elezionipolitiche/referendum-abrogativi-2025/)

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the referendum passes with the requisite voter turnout threshold met. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."​

If the referendum is permanently canceled or delayed beyond December 31, 2025 ET this market will resolve to “No”. 

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of Italy, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.


Citizenship Residency Requirement

This market refers to the referendum titled “Italian Citizenship: Contract of employment with increasing protections – regulation of unlawful dismissals: Abolition." (see: https://www.esteri.it/en/servizi-consolari-e-visti/italiani-all-estero/votoestero/elezionipolitiche/referendum-abrogativi-2025/)

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the referendum passes with the requisite voter turnout threshold met. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."​

If the referendum is permanently canceled or delayed beyond December 31, 2025 ET this market will resolve to “No”. 

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of Italy, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.


Increasing Protections

This market refers to the referendum titled “Small businesses – dismissals and related compensation: Partial abolition." (see: https://www.esteri.it/en/servizi-consolari-e-visti/italiani-all-estero/votoestero/elezionipolitiche/referendum-abrogativi-2025/)

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the referendum passes with the requisite voter turnout threshold met. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."​

If the referendum is permanently canceled or delayed beyond December 31, 2025 ET this market will resolve to “No”. 

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of Italy, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.


Small businesses

This market refers to the referendum titled “Partial abolition of rules regarding the imposition of term limits on employment contracts, maximum duration, and conditions for extensions and renewals." (see: https://www.esteri.it/en/servizi-consolari-e-visti/italiani-all-estero/votoestero/elezionipolitiche/referendum-abrogativi-2025/)

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the referendum passes with the requisite voter turnout threshold met. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."​

If the referendum is permanently canceled or delayed beyond December 31, 2025 ET this market will resolve to “No”. 

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of Italy, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.


Stable Work

This market refers to the referendum titled “Exclusion of solidary responsibility of the client, contractor, and subcontractor for injuries suffered by employees of contracting or subcontracting companies, resulting from the specific risks of the activity of the contracting or subcontracting companies: Abolition." (see: https://www.esteri.it/en/servizi-consolari-e-visti/italiani-all-estero/votoestero/elezionipolitiche/referendum-abrogativi-2025/)

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the referendum passes with the requisite voter turnout threshold met. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."​

If the referendum is permanently canceled or delayed beyond December 31, 2025 ET this market will resolve to “No”. 

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of Italy, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.


Safe Work

Italian Referendum

This is a polymarket on whether the listed club will win the 2025–26 Serie A.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed club is officially crowned the winner of the 2025–26 Serie A. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No".

If at any point it becomes impossible for the listed club to win the league (e.g. they are mathematically eliminated), the market will resolve to "No".

If the 2025–26 Serie A season is canceled or not completed by October 1, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other".

The primary resolution source will be official information from Serie A. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Will Inter win the 2025–26 Serie A league?

This is a polymarket to predict which clubs finish in the top 4 of the Serie A standings for the 2025-26 season.

If the listed club officially finishes in the top 4 of the Serie A standings at the end of the season, the market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, it will resolve to "No".

If two or more clubs are tied on points for a top 4 position, resolution will follow the official Serie A tiebreaking procedures.

If the 2025-26 Serie A season is cancelled or not completed before October 1, 2026, this market will resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source will be official information from Serie A soccer. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Will AC Milan finish in the top 4 in the 2025-26 Serie A season?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Giorgia Meloni ceases to be the Prime Minister of Italy for any period of time between December 5, 2025 and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

An announcement of Giorgia Melon's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.

The resolution source for this market will be the government of Italy, however a consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.

Meloni out as Prime Minister of Italy by June 30?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Giorgia Meloni ceases to be the Prime Minister of Italy for any period of time between February 3 and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

An announcement of Giorgia Melon's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.

The resolution source for this market will be the government of Italy, however a consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.

Meloni out as Prime Minister of Italy in 2025?

This is a polymarket to predict which clubs are relegated from Serie A after the 2025–26 season.

If the listed club is officially relegated by Serie A following the 2025–26 season, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, it will resolve to "No".

If the 2025–26 Serie A season is canceled or not completed by October 1, 2026, this market will resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source will be official information from Serie A. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Will Pisa be relegated from Serie A after the 2025-26 season?

This is a polymarket to predict which player will finish as the top goal scorer in the 2025–26 Serie A season.

If the listed player finishes as the sole top goal scorer in the 2025–26 Serie A season, the market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, it will resolve to "No".

Only goals scored in Serie A matches will count. Goals scored in other competitions (e.g., Coppa Italia, Champions League, Europa League, international matches) will not count for this market.

If multiple players tie for the top goal scorer, the market will resolve to the player whose last name comes first alphabetically.

If the 2025–26 Serie A season is canceled or not completed by August 1, 2026, the market will resolve to "Other".

The primary resolution source will be official statistics from Serie A soccer. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Will Lautaro Martinez be the top goal scorer in the 2025-26 Serie A season?

Parliamentary elections are to be scheduled to be held in Slovenia in mid to late March 2026.

This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the next Slovenian National Assembly (Državni zbor) election. 

If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.

This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition in the Slovenian Parliament. If a named coalition dissolves, this market will resolve based on the seat total of the constituent party within that coalition that held the largest number of seats before the election.

This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Slovenian government, specifically the Slovenian Election Authority (Državna volilna komisija, DVK) (www.dvk-rs.si/).

Will the Slovenian Democratic Party (SDS) win the most seats in the 2026 Slovenian parliamentary election?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Emmanuel Macron convenes the electorate for a nationwide referendum by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."

To qualify, the Journal officiel de la République française must publish a presidential decree, signed by Emmanuel Macron, deciding to submit a text to a nationwide referendum, for example, through Article 11, Article 89, or via the référendum d’initiative partagée (RIP). Any such decree will qualify, even if the President did not support the initiative.

A mere public announcement from Emmanuel Macron will not suffice. Any referendum initiated through any procedure not requiring a presidential decree will not qualify.

If Emmanuel Macron ceases to be President of France before issuing a qualifying presidential decree, this market will resolve to "No" immediately.

This market will resolve as soon as a qualifying decree is officially published, regardless of when and whether a referendum is held.

The primary resolution source will be the Journal officiel "Lois et Décrets" on Légifrance (https://www.legifrance.gouv.fr/jorf/jo); however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Will Macron call a referendum by December 31?

This market will resolve according to the winner of the Republican Primary for United States Senator from Illinois.

If no 2026 Illinois Republican Senate Primary takes place, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be the first announcement of the results from the Illinois Republican party, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.

Will Don Tracy be the Republican nominee for Senate in Illinois?

This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Illinois gubernatorial election.

A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.

Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.

The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.

Will the Democrats win the Illinois governor race in 2026?

A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the listed candidate that wins this election.

This market includes any potential second round. If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".

This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).

Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?

This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Illinois U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.

A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.

Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.

The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.

Will the Democrats win the Illinois Senate race in 2026?

First-round presidential elections are scheduled to be held in Portugal on January 18, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the first-round turnout percentage, calculated as “Total votantes” divided by “Total inscritos”

If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.

If the results of the election aren’t known by May 31, 2026 ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.  

This market will resolve based on the result of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Portuguese government, specifically the National Election Commission (Comissão Nacional de Eleições, CNE) (https://www.cne.pt/).

Will turnout in the first round of the 2026 Portuguese presidential election be at least 44%?

Elections for the autonomous community of Extremadura’s unicameral assembly are scheduled for December 21, 2025.

This market will resolve according to the political party/coalition that wins the greatest number of seats in the Assembly of Extremadura (Asamblea de Extremadura) as a result of this election.

If voting in the next election for the Assembly of Extremadura does not occur by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.

This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the listed party or coalition.

In the case of a tie between this party/coalition and any other for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party/coalition whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order.

If a listed coalition splits into individual parties prior to this election and does not contest this election as a unified coalition, the corresponding market will represent the party formerly in that coalition that holds the greatest number of seats in the Assembly of Extremadura at the time of the split.

This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published by the Spanish Junta Electoral Central (JEC) (https://www.juntaelectoralcentral.es/cs/jec/inicio).

Will Partido Popular (PP) win the 2025 Extremadura regional election?

Far-right populist candidate for President of Romania Călin Georgescu has been charged as part of an ongoing investigation for election campaign fraud amidst a contentious election. You can read more about it here: https://www.romaniajournal.ro/society-people/law-crime/prosecutors-charge-calin-georgescu-with-incitement-fraud-promoting-fascist-ideas/

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Călin Georgescu is found guilty of any charges related to the 2024/2025 Romanian Presidential election by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

In the event that all charges are dropped or vacated, a mistrial is declared, or all ongoing investigations/cases are otherwise ended without a guilty verdict, this market will resolve to "No".

This market will resolve based on the first verdict rendered for each charge. Subsequent appeals, etc., will not count toward this market's resolution.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Romania, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Romanian politician Georgescu guilty in 2025?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the date of the next French legislative election is declared by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For this market to resolve to "Yes" it is only necessary that the election date be declared, not that the election actually occur within the market timeframe.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the France, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.


French election called by June 30, 2026?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the next Romanian parliamentary election is officially scheduled between July 10 and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."

This market is about whether a date for the next Romanian parliamentary election is formally announced within the stated timeframe. The date the election is scheduled to take place on will have no effect on the resolution to this market.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of Romania, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Romania Parliamentary Election called in 2025?

The next French presidential election is currently expected to be held around April 2027.  This market pertains to the outcome of the next French presidential election, regardless of whether it follows the scheduled end of the current term or is held earlier. 

The President of France is elected via a two-round system; a candidate must secure over 50% of the vote to win outright in the first round. If no candidate achieves this, the top two contenders advance to a runoff.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.

This market includes any potential second round. If, for any reason, the results of the election are not known by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the French Government, specifically the Ministry of the Interior (https://www.interieur.gouv.fr/).

Will Jordan Bardella win the 2027 French presidential election?

General elections are scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. If no candidate wins outright in the first round, the top two candidates proceed to a runoff.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed candidate advances to Brazil's presidential runoff election or otherwise wins outright in the first round. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

If the president is decided in the first round of the election or the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No".

This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).

Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva qualify for Brazil's presidential runoff?

This market will resolve to according to the candidate who wins the 2026 California gubernatorial election currently scheduled for November 3, 2026.

If the results of the election are not confirmed by July 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on official certification.

Will Eric Swalwell win the California Governor Election in 2026?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the next Spanish general election is scheduled between October 21, 2025, and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

This market is about whether a date for the next Spanish election is announced within the stated timeframe. The date the election is scheduled to take place on will have no effect on the resolution to this market.

The primary resolution source for this market is official information from the Government of Spain however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Spain snap election called by June 30, 2026?

This market will resolve to the country whose candidate for Eurovision 2026 wins.

If at any point it is impossible for the listed candidate to win Eurovision 2026 based on the rules of the competition (i.e. they are eliminated), this market may immediately resolve to "No".

If no winner is announced by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve "Other". All ties will be broken according to EBU's official Eurovision rules.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Eurovision (https://eurovision.tv/), including live footage of Eurovision 2026, however a consensus of credible reporting will suffice.

Will Israel win Eurovision 2026?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if all Italy, Bolivia, and DR Congo qualify for the 2026 FIFA World Cup.

If at any point it becomes impossible for one of these teams to qualify for the FIFA World Cup based on the rules of FIFA (e.g., they cannot reach the required number of points to advance from their group or qualify for playoffs), this market will resolve immediately to “No”.

If the 2026 FIFA World Cup is permanently canceled or the qualifying stage has not been completed by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM, this market will resolve to “No”.

The resolution source for this market will be FIFA.  (https://www.fifa.com/en/tournaments/mens/worldcup).

FIFA World Cup 2026 Qualification Longshots Parlay

Parliamentary elections are expected to be held in Latvia on October 3, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the listed political party or coalition that wins the greatest number of seats in the Latvian Parliament (Saeima) in the next Latvian Parliamentary election. 

In the event of a tie between multiple parties/coalitions for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.

This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition in the Latvian Parliament. If a named coalition dissolves and does not contest this election, the corresponding market will resolve based on the number of seats won by the constituent party within that coalition that held the largest number of seats before the election.

If the results of this election are not known definitively by June 30, 2027 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Latvian government, specifically the Latvian Central Election Commission (https://www.cvk.lv/lv).

Will Sociāldemokrātiskā Partija “Saskaņa” (S) win the most seats in the 2026 Latvian parliamentary election?

This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Michigan U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.

A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.

Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.

The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.

Will the Democrats win the Michigan Senate race in 2026?

Presidential elections are scheduled to be held in Portugal on 18 or 25 January 2026, with a possible second round on 8 or 15 February 2026. A second round will be held if no candidate secures more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round.

This market will resolve according to the listed candidate that wins this election. 

This market includes any potential second round. If the result of this election isn't known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".

This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Portuguese government, specifically the National Election Commission (Comissão Nacional de Eleições, CNE) (https://www.cne.pt/).

Will Luís Marques Mendes win the 2026 Portugal presidential election?

Parliamentary elections are to be scheduled to be held in Hungary in early April 2026.

This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the next Hungarian National Assembly (Országgyűlés) election. 

If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.

This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition in the Hungarian Parliament. If a named coalition dissolves, this market will resolve based on the seat total of the constituent party within that coalition that held the largest number of seats before the election.

This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Hungarian government, specifically the Hungarian Election Authority (Nemzeti Választási Iroda) (valasztas.hu).

Will TISZA – Respect and Freedom Party (TISZA) win the most seats in the next Hungarian parliamentary election?

Presidential elections are scheduled to be held in Portugal on 18 or 25 January 2026, with a possible second round on 8 or 15 February 2026. A second round will be held if no candidate secures more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round.

This market will resolve according to the listed candidate that receives the second-highest number of valid votes in the first round of this election. 

If the result of this election isn't known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".

This market will resolve based on the result of the first round of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Portuguese government, specifically the National Election Commission (Comissão Nacional de Eleições, CNE) (https://www.cne.pt/).

Will André Ventura win 2nd place in the 1st round of the 2026 Portugal presidential election?

This market will resolve according to the winner of the Democratic Primary for United States Senator from Illinois.

If no 2026 Illinois Democratic Senate Primary takes place, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be the first announcement of the results from the Illinois Democratic party, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.

Will Raja Krishnamoorthi be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Illinois?

Presidential elections are scheduled to be held in Portugal on 18 or 25 January 2026, with a possible second round on 8 or 15 February 2026. A second round will be held if no candidate secures more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if any candidate wins this election in the first round. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

If the result of the first round of this election isn't known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No".

This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Portuguese government, specifically the National Election Commission (Comissão Nacional de Eleições, CNE) (https://www.cne.pt/).

Will any presidential candidate win outright in the first round of the Portuguese election?

Presidential elections are scheduled to be held in Portugal on 18 or 25 January 2026, with a possible second round on 8 or 15 February 2026. A second round will be held if no candidate secures more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round.

This market will resolve according to the listed candidate that receives the highest number of valid votes in the first round of this election.

If the result of this election isn't known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".

This market will resolve based on the result of the first round of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Portuguese government, specifically the National Election Commission (Comissão Nacional de Eleições, CNE) (https://www.cne.pt/).

Will André Ventura win the 1st round of the 2026 Portugal presidential election?

This market will resolve according to the winner of the Republican Primary for Governor of Illinois, scheduled to take place on March 17, 2026. Resolution will be based on the overall winner of the primary, including any potential second round or run-off.

If no 2026 Illinois Gubernatorial Republican Primary takes place, this market will resolve to “Other.”

The resolution source for this market will be the first official announcement of the results from the Illinois Republican Party; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.

Will Max Solomon win the 2026 Illinois Governor Republican primary election?

General elections are scheduled to be held in Peru on April 12, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who wins the next Peruvian Presidential election. 

This market includes any potential second round. 

If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Peruvian government, specifically the National Elections Jury of Peru (Jurado Nacional de Elecciones) (portal.jne.gob.pe/portal).

Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the date of the next UK general election is declared by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For this market to resolve to "Yes" it is only necessary that the election date be declared, not that the election actually occur within the market timeframe.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United Kingdom, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Will the next UK election be called by June 30, 2026?

This is a polymarket to predict which clubs finish in the top 4 of the La Liga standings for the 2025–26 season.

If the listed club officially finishes in the top 4 of the La Liga standings at the end of the season, the market will resolve to "Yes." Otherwise, it will resolve to "No."

If two or more clubs are tied on points for a top 4 position, resolution will follow the official La Liga tiebreaking procedures.

If the 2025–26 La Liga season is canceled or not completed before October 1, 2026, this market will resolve to "No."

The primary resolution source will be official information from La Liga. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Will Barcelona finish in the top 4 of the La Liga 2025–26 standings?

Presidential elections are scheduled to be held in Portugal on 18 or 25 January 2026, with a possible second round on 8 or 15 February 2026. A second round will be held if no candidate secures more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round. The two candidates with the greatest number of votes in the first round will advance to the second round.

This market will resolve according to the listed candidates that qualify for the second round of this election. 

If the result of the first round of this election isn't known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No".

If a candidate secures more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round, this market will resolve to "No".

This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Portuguese government, specifically the National Election Commission (Comissão Nacional de Eleições, CNE) (https://www.cne.pt/).

Will Luís Marques Mendes qualify for the second round of the 2026 Portugal presidential election?

Presidential elections are scheduled to be held in Brazil on October 4, 2026. A second round will be held if no candidate secures more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if any candidate wins this election in the first round. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

If the result of the first round of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No".

This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).

Will any presidential candidate win outright in the first round of the Brazil election?

Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetehaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026.

This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the formal deliberative assembly of Berlin (Abgeordnetenhaus) as a result of this election.

If voting in the Berlin election for the Abgeordnetenhaus does not occur by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other".

In the case of a tie between this party or coalition and any other for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order.

This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition.

This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/)


Italian Referendum

Citizenship Residency Requirement
$58,502 Vol.
No

Increasing Protections
$31,010 Vol.
No

Small businesses
$62,986 Vol.
No

Stable Work
$34,043 Vol.
No

Safe Work
$36,870 Vol.
No

Market Context

Italian Referendum

Rules

Italian Referendum

Market Context

Italian Referendum

About

Related

Italian Referendum

Citizenship Residency Requirement$58,502 Vol.Nocircle xmark

Increasing Protections$31,010 Vol.Nocircle xmark

Small businesses$62,986 Vol.Nocircle xmark

Stable Work$34,043 Vol.Nocircle xmark

Safe Work$36,870 Vol.Nocircle xmark

Market Context

Italian Referendum

Rules

Italian Referendum

Market Context

Italian Referendum

About

Related

Citizenship Residency Requirement
$58,502 Vol.
No

Increasing Protections
$31,010 Vol.
No

Small businesses
$62,986 Vol.
No

Stable Work
$34,043 Vol.
No

Safe Work
$36,870 Vol.
No