Note on Middle East Markets: The promise of prediction markets is to harness the wisdom of the crowd to create accurate, unbiased forecasts for the most important events to society. That ability is particularly invaluable in gut-wrenching times like today. After discussing with those directly affected by the attacks, who had dozens of questions, we realized that prediction markets could give them the answers they needed in ways TV news and Twitter could not.

Note: As with all markets currently displayed on Polymarket, there are no fees on this market.

Market icon

Israel x Hamas ceasefire cancelled before April?

$1,088,284 Vol.

Mar 31, 2025

Yes

100% chance 54%

Source: Polymarket.com

Rules

Additional context

Updated Mar 18

The IDF has officially announced it is conducting extensive strikes on Hamas throughout the Gaza Strip (https://x.com/IDF/status/1901802698237935705). This qualifies to resolve this market to “Yes”.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if a either Israel or Hamas announce the cancelation of the ongoing ceasefire, or if a consensus of credible reporting confirms that the ceasefire is no longer in effect, by March 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".

The primary solution resolution source will be official information from Hamas or the government of Israel however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Volume

$1,088,284

End Date

Mar 31, 2025

Outcome proposed: Yes

No dispute

Final outcome: Yes

Comments (427)
Top Holders
Activity
Related

Beware of external links, they may be phishing attacks.

avivei

14m ago

should've gotten more

avivei

17m ago

haha

vehicle

vehicle

2h ago

Those IDF whales who bought Yes are eating good tonight

Euan

Euan

3h ago

what a useless clarification lol

username3

username3

3h ago

@Euan

There’s so much controversy with Middle East Markets that Polymarket is getting ahead of the drama haha

username3

username3

3h ago

W Polymarket adding a clarification

Euan

Euan

3h ago

tf

Verrissimus

let me farm reward Euan

aenews2

aenews2

3h ago

ggs, I proposed if anyone wants to dispute. But it's clearly over.

HolyMoses7

Official announcement by minister of defense.

username3

username3

3h ago

"Ceasefire over as Israel strikes Gaza after Hamas refused to release hostages, officials say" https://www.foxnews.com/world/ceasefire-over-israel-strikes-gaza-after-hamas-refused-release-hostages-officials-say

Kickstand8

NO holders falling for the Iranian-run Kickstand psy-op once again. The Ayatollah thanks you for your contributions to the Islamic republic.

Kickstand8

Palestinian report: Sounds of movement of ‘occupation’ tanks in eastern Gaza- this is not the border.

denizz

3h ago

Can be proposed imo

GeorgiySelvestrov

SHALOM HAMAS

dogeater

4h ago

where all no bettors?

denizz

4h ago

Wow

HolyMoses7

@denizz

lucky you sold your No yesterday :)

justbizz

justbizz

4h ago

@denizz

You shoulda listened to me earlier bro

justbizz

justbizz

4h ago

Hey polymarket can I have my money now thx

Car

Car

4h ago

Hi

@Car

Car, could you make me a birthday present? It's tomorrow

justbizz

justbizz

4h ago

check the comments bros I been shilling this, on to the next🫡

Kickstand8

Israel resumes military operations against Hamas in Gaza after the group rejected U.S. proposals for extending ceasefire, Israeli Prime Minister's office says

cashy

4h ago

gg

Kickstand8

Joever

HolyMoses7

its over

cashy

4h ago

Big airstrike campaign in the strip

Kickstand8

For the first time since the ceasefire: our planes launch a broad wave of attacks against terrorist infrastructure and terrorists in the Gaza Strip.

Kickstand8

https://x.com/ariel_oseran/status/1901789388347961567?s=46 BREAKING: Palestinians reporting Israeli airstrikes “all across the Gaza Strip.”

Kickstand8

Explosions in the northwestern areas of the Gaza Strip, in parallel with intensive flights of reconnaissance aircraft and warplanes.

digital

digital

6h ago

@TheJonBonJov... you are new to polymarket they just finish a 15 months war you really think they will attack within next 2 weeks ?

TheJonBonJovi

https://www.ynetnews.com/article/s1moaovhjg

justbizz

justbizz

7h ago

What is happening with invasion?

bpratt012

7h ago

oy vey oy vey watcha gonna do watcha gonna do when Bibi comes for you

Kickstand8

All branches of the Israeli army were put on alert. A surprise meeting between the Chief of Staff of the Israeli Army and Netanyahu.

cashy

4h ago

GeorgiySelvestrov

SHALOM HAMAS 🤭🤭

bpratt012

7h ago

@GeorgiySelve...

oy vey these amaleks

Kickstand8

Denizz flipped :)

justbizz

justbizz

8h ago

justbizz

justbizz

8h ago

@Kickstand8

Biggest no shill haha

Kickstand8

Israel’s Military censorship has allowed publication that Israel had identified an unusual event in the Gaza Strip that indicates Hamas is organizing for another attack on Israel.

Outcome: Yes