Note on Middle East Markets: The promise of prediction markets is to harness the wisdom of the crowd to create accurate, unbiased forecasts for the most important events to society. That ability is particularly invaluable in gut-wrenching times like today. After discussing with those directly affected by the attacks, who had dozens of questions, we realized that prediction markets could give them the answers they needed in ways TV news and Twitter could not.
Note: As with all markets currently displayed on Polymarket, there are no fees on this market.
Israel x Hamas ceasefire cancelled before April?
$1,007,447 Vol.
Mar 31, 2025
Rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a either Israel or Hamas announce the cancelation of the ongoing ceasefire, or if a consensus of credible reporting confirms that the ceasefire is no longer in effect, by March 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
The primary solution resolution source will be official information from Hamas or the government of Israel however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
The primary solution resolution source will be official information from Hamas or the government of Israel however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$1,007,447
End Date
Mar 31, 2025
Resolver
0x6A9D222616...Comments (372)
Top Holders
Activity
Related
Beware of external links, they may be phishing attacks.
digital
1h ago
@TheJonBonJov... you are new to polymarket they just finish a 15 months war you really think they will attack within next 2 weeks ?
digital
2h ago
https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/israeli-strikes-kill-14-people-gaza-over-past-day-palestinian-medics-say-2025-03-16/ it's in the north of gaza it's only resistance pocket...
TheJonBonJovi
2h ago
https://www.ynetnews.com/article/s1moaovhjg
justbizz
2h ago
What is happening with invasion?
bpratt012
2h ago
oy vey oy vey watcha gonna do watcha gonna do when Bibi comes for you
Kickstand8
3h ago
All branches of the Israeli army were put on alert. A surprise meeting between the Chief of Staff of the Israeli Army and Netanyahu.
Kickstand8
4h ago
Israel’s Military censorship has allowed publication that Israel had identified an unusual event in the Gaza Strip that indicates Hamas is organizing for another attack on Israel.
michelleoboma
1d ago
ye im out of this market but I think anything can happen.gl
justbizz
1d ago
Good we dont want your flip floppin ass
michelleoboma
2d ago
Trump said no, see you all for the abrahams accord next month in saudi arabia.
denizz
2d ago
michelleoboma
2d ago
looks like you have a Big N position there,gl liquidating it ^_^/
denizz
2d ago
the Prime Minister instructed the negotiating team to prepare for the continuation of the talks in accordance with the mediators' response to Witkoff's proposal for the immediate release of 11 live abductees and half of the dead.
michelleoboma
2d ago
so like Ive been saying for weeks, hamas will not release 1 hostage without israel leaving gaza. Trump is now starting a war with yemen, how much longer can he say no to bibi? Id rather hold Yes than N here right now lol.
greengasper
2d ago
Israeli officials: Negotiations with Hamas have hit a wall due to extreme gaps between the position of Israel and the US and the position of Hamas.
justbizz
2d ago
Can someone tell me how the "ceasefire" is still going on? https://x.com/TimesofIsrael/status/1900894775919997305
GeorgiySelvestro...
3d ago
Shalom Hamas very soon 🤭🤭
justbizz
3d ago
In my humble opinion, I believe Israel is putting on a big show, making it look like they are trying their best to make a deal. Notice how in Doha they didnt send any real decision makers there? I am betting that soon they will do some type of false flag or reason to go back in, and use this as an illusion that they tried to make peace. Question is will they do that in two weeks? Who knows.
justbizz
3d ago
Are we cooked bros?
greengasper
3d ago
I hope if it's our shares that get cooked and not the deal, but unfortunately, I see no horizon
Yuvis
3d ago
Didn't Witkoff say anything about a deadline lol ?
greengasper
3d ago
No more negociations : Amichai Stein - i24 news correspondent: The negotiating team is scheduled to return from Qatar this evening.
greengasper
3d ago
Next step war : Prime Minister's Office: While Israel has accepted the Witkoff outline, Hamas continues to refuse and has not budged a millimeter. At the same time, it continues engaging in manipulation and psychological warfare. The Prime Minister will convene the ministerial team on Saturday night to receive a detailed report from the negotiating team, and to decide on the next steps for the release of the hostages.
greengasper
4d ago
In Israel, they say: "The offer that Hamas is publishing is very far from our demand for at least eight live hostages." Despite this, there is no way to assess whether Israel will accept the offer or not, since the Israeli effort is to bring about the release of all possible hostages. https://www.israelhayom.co.il/news/defense/article/17541443
avivei
3d ago
avivei
4d ago
no way israel will accept the offer hamas agreed on
michelleoboma
4d ago
trump is the only thing right now keeping the ceasefire alive...hamas isnt going to release a single hostage alive without israel agreeing to ending the war.
michelleoboma
5d ago
here we go, as expected,leaks are saying saudi arabia is now in qatar after being invited by the us. What is saudi arabia doing in qatar? its there to sweet talk bibi into agreeing to end war in exchange for saudi normalization. while im really upset about this developement and will likely lose this market, Im biggest Y holder on saudi normalisation which will be announced in april during trump meeting if israel agrees to end war this week.
michelleoboma
5d ago
israel is being taken for a ride by trump but bibi is a really smart man and knows he has no choice but to get on the ride and play nice(not like idiot zelensky).Next stop is normalization with the saudi that bibi will present to get reelected.
avivei
5d ago
so low😛😛😛
denizz
5d ago
Ynet: Cautious optimism from Doha: After Witkoff joined the talks, Israeli and American officials spoke of slight progress. The mediators proposed a mediation proposal for a small truce to allow time for negotiations, and the possibility of releasing 10 hostages is also being considered - but in several truces.
OneT
6d ago
Shalom Hamas
michelleoboma
6d ago
@denizz, I found this weeks trailer: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bkzZfvYNnBQ
denizz
6d ago
https://www.timesofisrael.com/liveblog_entry/hamas-showing-some-readiness-to-agree-to-long-extension-of-ceasefire-israeli-source-says/
justbizz
6d ago
This is kinda bs, ceasefire should already be done, this should be resolved alrready. https://x.com/gazanotice/status/1899479009886453973
michelleoboma
7d ago
the situation is fluid.
mr.ozi
7d ago
So is you're betting ;)
michelleoboma
7d ago
my profit too ^_^
justbizz
7d ago
I hope yall realize, Israel will NEVER agree to this. And Hamas wont agree to that (Tweet mk27 sent) https://x.com/PalestineChron/status/1899057479159251426 👇
justbizz
7d ago
Ceasefire basically already broken... Just a matter of time before its over. https://www.cbsnews.com/news/israel-strikes-gaza-ahead-new-talks-ceasefire-hamas/
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