Israel x Hamas ceasefire before 2026?
$3,556,471 Vol.
Rules
Additional context
Updated Aug 18
A peace deal or political framework will qualify if it includes a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, effective on a specific date. Frameworks or agreements that outline terms for a future peace but do not include an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not count.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, between Israel and Hamas between March 19, and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET.
If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of whether the ceasefire officially starts afterwards.
An announced agreement to reinstate the previous agreed upon January 15th ceasefire deal will qualify.
Any form of informal agreement will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses will not count toward the resolution of this market.
This market's resolution will be based on official announcements from both Israel and Hamas, however a wide consensus of credible media reporting stating an official ceasefire agreement between Israel and Hamas has been reached will suffice.
Volume
$3,556,471
End Date
Dec 31, 2025
Resolver
0x6A9D22261...Outcome proposed: Yes
No dispute
Final outcome: Yes
$3,556,471 Vol.
Israel x Hamas ceasefire before 2026?
About
Additional context
Updated Aug 18
A peace deal or political framework will qualify if it includes a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, effective on a specific date. Frameworks or agreements that outline terms for a future peace but do not include an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not count.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, between Israel and Hamas between March 19, and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET.
If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of whether the ceasefire officially starts afterwards.
An announced agreement to reinstate the previous agreed upon January 15th ceasefire deal will qualify.
Any form of informal agreement will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses will not count toward the resolution of this market.
This market's resolution will be based on official announcements from both Israel and Hamas, however a wide consensus of credible media reporting stating an official ceasefire agreement between Israel and Hamas has been reached will suffice.
Volume
$3,556,471
End Date
Dec 31, 2025
Resolver
0x6A9D22261...Outcome proposed: Yes
No dispute
Final outcome: Yes
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.