Note on Middle East Markets: The promise of prediction markets is to harness the wisdom of the crowd to create accurate, unbiased forecasts for the most important events to society. That ability is particularly invaluable in gut-wrenching times like today. After discussing with those directly affected by the attacks, who had dozens of questions, we realized that prediction markets could give them the answers they needed in ways TV news and 𝕏 could not.

Market icon

Israel next strike on Yemen on...?

September 25 99.9%

September 22  <1%

September 23 <1%

September 24 <1%

Polymarket

$1,195,480 Vol.

This market will resolve according to the first day ET Israel next initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Yemen soil or any official Yemen embassy or consulate.

This market will resolve to "No strike" if no qualifying strike is conducted by September 30, 2025, 11:59 PM ET.

For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact Yemen ground territory or any official Yemen embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Yemen soil is hit by an Israeli missile, this market will resolve to "Yes").

Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on Yemen territory or cause damage.

Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.

The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$1,195,480
End Date
Sep 30, 2025
Created At
Sep 22, 2025, 7:45 PM ET
This market will resolve according to the first day ET Israel next initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Yemen soil or any official Yemen embassy or consulate. This market will resolve to "No strike" if no qualifying strike is conducted by September 30, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact Yemen ground territory or any official Yemen embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Yemen soil is hit by an Israeli missile, this market will resolve to "Yes"). Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on Yemen territory or cause damage. Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Outcome proposed: No

No dispute

Final outcome: No

Beware of external links.

Note on Middle East Markets: The promise of prediction markets is to harness the wisdom of the crowd to create accurate, unbiased forecasts for the most important events to society. That ability is particularly invaluable in gut-wrenching times like today. After discussing with those directly affected by the attacks, who had dozens of questions, we realized that prediction markets could give them the answers they needed in ways TV news and 𝕏 could not.

Market icon

Israel next strike on Yemen on...?

September 25 99.9%

September 22  <1%

September 23 <1%

September 24 <1%

Polymarket

$1,195,480 Vol.

September 22

$470 Vol.

No

September 23

$6,401 Vol.

No

September 24

$87,074 Vol.

No

September 25

$492,308 Vol.

Yes

September 26

$102,464 Vol.

No

September 27

$83,878 Vol.

No

September 28

$91,081 Vol.

No

September 29

$86,672 Vol.

No

September 30

$96,296 Vol.

No

No Strike

$148,837 Vol.

No

Beware of external links.