Name: Israel and Syria normalize relations by...?
Start: 2025-06-02T22:17:38.035225Z
End: 2026-12-31T00:00:00Z

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This market will resolve to "Yes" if both Israel and Syria officially announce the establishment of diplomatic relations by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Israel and the Syria, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

December 31, 2025

This market will resolve to "Yes" if both Israel and Syria officially announce the establishment of diplomatic relations by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Israel and the Syria, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

June 30, 2026

This market will resolve to "Yes" if both Israel and Syria officially announce the establishment of diplomatic relations by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Israel and the Syria, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

December 31, 2026

Israel and Syria normalize relations by...?

Israel has launched a significant military offensive against Syria, targeting key locations including the Presidential Palace and General Staff HQ in Damascus, as well as preparing for extended combat operations. This escalation follows broken security agreements in Suwayda and aims to prevent a unified Syria, further complicating potential normalization of relations amidst ongoing regional tensions.

Israel Bombs Syria

Israel, who less than a week ago was bombing Iran, is now bombing the military and government in Damascus that kicked Iranian-backed forces out of Syria. Israel once again proves that will do anything to prevent a unified and stable Syria.

BREAKING: Israel launches massive attack on Syrian capital.
https://t.co/sKKkiow9fN

Israeli negotiation tactics: we will bomb your capital until you normalize with us on our terms

Israel is not working towards a de-militarized zone in southern Syria, it is working towards a re-militarized zone by Israeli proxy https://t.co/kJYVc46pxY

JUST IN: 🇮🇱🇸🇾 Israeli Defense Forces say they are preparing for several days of combat in Syria.

After negotiating 3 security agreements with #Suwayda in 5 months &amp; all 3 being swiftly broken by Hikmat al-Hijri, #Syria's gov't is *very* unlikely to stop this time -- especially as Hijri is now on the run.

#Israel's intervention (about to sharply escalate) adds fuel to fire.

🇸🇾 Israel has bombed Syria’s Presidential Palace and General Staff HQ in Damascus — the most direct strike on Syrian leadership to date.

🇹🇷 Turkish officials reportedly urged Syrian President Ahmed al-Sharaa to evacuate — he refused.

🇮🇱  Israeli military: “We are preparing for https://t.co/uVlbbyMYMr

🧵Some background on why Israel is bombing Syria, where the Druze fit into the story, and what it means for Israel-Syria normalisation.

——

The likelihood of Israel normalizing relations with Syria has taken a hit following the murder of Syrian Druze by Ahmed al-Shara’s https://t.co/2ESkLDrvci

Syria and Israel are reportedly engaged in quiet talks to normalize relations, with a potential peace agreement expected before the end of 2025, including discussions on the Golan Heights' status. The negotiations, facilitated by U.S. envoys and influenced by regional dynamics, also hint at broader normalization efforts involving Saudi Arabia and the Abraham Accords.

Syria-Israel Peace Talks

President of Syria al-Golani agrees to normalization with Israel and recognition of the Golan as Israeli and not Syrian territory.
However, some still doubt that ISIS and terrorist groups are not Mossad agents. https://t.co/7cv3GD0vr1

Optimistic noises in Israel that we may be on the brink of a breakthrough to end the war, bring all the hostages home, and normalize relations with Syria, Lebanon, and Saudi Arabia. Sounds too good to be true. Please God.

"Israel and Syria are on the brink of a peace treaty. What you see happening is that you've weakened the head of the terror octopus to the point where the rest of the region is finally looking at a future where maybe there will be peace."

Scott Jennings is right. https://t.co/k1sbi9XGb0

BREAKING 🇸🇾🇮🇷🇮🇱🔥 Syrian President Al-Sharaa in talks to handover the #GolanHeight to Israeli Government after many years of Conflicts. https://t.co/XotyPP4TMe

Syria can barely function and the priority is normalization with Israel?

Now you know what the war was about in case you weren't already deprogrammed.

🇮🇱🇸🇾 SCOOP: Israel and Syria will sign a peace agreement before the end of 2025, a Syrian source with knowledge of the matter tells me. 

Under the agreement, Israel will gradually withdraw from all Syrian territory it seized after December 8, 2024, including the peak of Mount

JUST IN: Israeli Foreign Minister says Israel intends to keep the Golan Heights as a condition for normalization with Syria.

The irony of Jolani giving away the Golan. https://t.co/zY7s93kRuP

🚨BREAKING: Trump and Bibi’s Bold Plan

Shortly after the Iran strikes, Trump and Netanyahu quietly agreed to a new vision:

— End Gaza war in 2 weeks
— Saudi &amp; Syrian normalization
— Abraham Accords expansion
— A 2-state framework on America and Israel’s terms

🧵 https://t.co/Fm3lZ07Tba

Wait, so Trump secured a peace between India and Pakistan, DRC and Rwanda, Israel and Iran, Syria and Lebanon want in on the Abraham Accords, is working on Ukraine and Russia, and we're supposed to believe it's not political if he doesn't get a Nobel Peace Prize?

A message to our Sunni brothers in Syria

Al-Julani has openly admitted that he is engaged in indirect negotiations with Tel Aviv.

Yesterday’s (Friday) report in the Israeli newspaper Maariv, citing Israeli sources, revealed that negotiations between Israel and Syria 'have https://t.co/9cFZQbFSEN

US Ambassador to Turkey Tom Barrack, who is also the special envoy for Syria, confirmed Syria and Israel are having "positive direct talks about all issues".

From an ISIS emir to an Al-Qaeda emir, to the self-appointed president to a friend of Israel: what a career.

BREAKING: Israel and Syria will sign a peace deal before the end of 2025, per i24.

Israel will withdraw from Syrian territory seized after Dec 8, 2024—including parts of Mount Hermon.

Relations will be fully normalized and the Golan Heights will become “a garden for peace.”

🚨 SCOTT JENNINGS NAILS IT: "The [Iran] ceasefire is holding. Apparently, Israel and Syria are on the brink of a peace treaty. Apparently, we're on the brink of expanding the Abraham Accords."

"I think what you see happening right now is that you've weakened the head of the https://t.co/ybuKeLxb5c

🇸🇾|🇮🇱 Al-Jolani did not protest Israel's use of Syrian airspace to attack Iran. 

According to Israeli media, Israel &amp; Syria will sign a peace agreement before the end of 2025. Traders at polymarket also see high probabilities this happens.

It looks like Al-Jolani will soon walk https://t.co/sKzKHFqsHD

Occupied Syria, the way of all 'color revolutions'. 
Yedioth Ahronoth:
•Israel and the ruling regime in Syria are preparing to normalize relations.
•The expected agreement includes official recognition of the Golan Heights as part of Israeli sovereignty.
•Under the agreement, https://t.co/VzwJaFwu7K

Just IN:  Syria to join Abraham Accord and normalise relations with Israel.

BIG:  Israel and Syria aim to reach a peace deal by year’s end.

The deal includes Israel’s withdrawal from all Syrian land captured after Dec. 8.

Golan Heights would be turned into a “peace garden.”

Source: Syrian official to Israel’s Channel 12

U.S. ENVOY SAYS SYRIA IS HOLDING QUIET TALKS WITH ISRAEL

JOLANI IS A DISGUSTING GUY https://t.co/dTdFT1iOk4

NEW: Israel and Syria will sign a peace agreement before the end of 2025, a Syrian source with knowledge of the matter tells i24News

BREAKING:

Israel and Syria are preparing to normalize relations.

The expected agreement between Syria and Israel includes the formal annexation of the Golan Heights under Israeli sovereignty. https://t.co/9M6nshe870

Zionist Rabbi Abraham Cooper revealed that he visited Syria and spent two hours in talks with self-appointed President Abu Mohamad Julani, amid reports of ongoing normalization discussions between Syria and the Israeli entity.

❗️To the daydreamers of the Muslim Brotherhood and https://t.co/sX4vAm2jpS

Jummah Mubarak to all Muslims. 

So the #Wahhabis supported their dajjalic ‘revolution’ in #Syria in order to normalise ties with Israel? 

Qaeda/ISIS/Nusra Wahhabists will forever be dogs of hell. https://t.co/ZkoCOmwoqc

JUST IN: U.S. ENVOY SAYS SYRIA IS HOLDING QUIET TALKS WITH ISRAEL https://t.co/CSqR5pDdT1

Saudi Arabia and Syria are reportedly moving toward normalization, with Syria expected to join the Abraham Accords and formally recognize the Golan Heights as Israeli territory.

🇺🇸🇮🇱 After the U.S. strike on Iran, Trump and Netanyahu agreed to end the Gaza war within two weeks, - Israel Hayom

UAE, Egypt, and two other Arab states will jointly govern Gaza, replacing Hamas. Leaders of the group will be exiled, hostages freed.

Saudi Arabia and Syria to https://t.co/8cXtXfllyR

Syria Envoy Tom Barrack to Al-Jazeera: Syria and Israel are quietly holding direct talks, with both sides open to normalization. Syrian officials hint peace may come by 2028. Israeli NSC Chief confirms regular contact; Damascus seeks to halt Israeli attacks in Quneitra. https://t.co/rmB9YZ1eMd

White House expects Syria to normalize ties with Israel amid "quiet talks"

The current Syrian head Jolani came to power as part of a CIA operation to topple the former government of Bashar al Assad. https://t.co/BHNeR1v0D6

🇸🇾 🇮🇱 U.S. ENVOY SAYS SYRIA HOLDING QUIET TALKS WITH ISRAEL

U.S. Special Envoy to Syria Tom Barrak reportedly revealed that Syria’s new administration is engaged in behind the scenes talks with Israel on all fronts, including recent Israeli incursions and airstrikes. 

Barrak https://t.co/FazxtBpvtd https://t.co/mFzMNzcuEw

Israeli Foreign Minister: In any normalization agreement with Syria, it will be stipulated that Israel will remain in the Golan Heights. Syrian recognition of Israeli sovereignty over the Golan will be a good first step.  https://t.co/E0LADVlInC

According to Israeli media, Syria’s new dictator is close to a normalization deal with the Israelis:

Trump-brokered: Netanyahu and Al-Julani close to signing peace agreement | Maariv News https://t.co/h6Ectq1BA0

The White House spokeswoman declared: "We are at the dawn of a new

US Special Envoy to Syria Tom Barrak said the current Syrian administration is conducting quiet talks with Israel on all issues, including the Israeli Incursion and bombardment in Syria. He said the Sharaa government does not want war with Israel.”he called for giving the new

White House expects Syria to normalize ties with Israel amid 'quiet talks'
https://t.co/p7bzkTvRfB

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Israel is making strategic military moves on the ground in Syria while pushing for a demilitarized zone in the southern region to secure its borders, amidst tensions with Hezbollah and U.S. diplomatic considerations. Syria's administration under President Ahmad al-Sharaa demands adherence to the 1974 agreement and withdrawal from recently occupied territories, as discussions on security agreements and self-determination for the Suwayda region emerge.

Israel Advances in Syria

A road to Peace for Syria  

Any security agreement between Israel and the Syrian regime should include the following sine qua non conditions:

Establishment of a demilitarized zone (DMZ) in southern Syria.

Self-determination for Suwayda region, including a secure passage

Before diplomacy begins, Israel moves on ground in Syria - by Basel Haj Jasem | DS Opinion
https://t.co/do5Tw8yIur https://t.co/vN5xlANJHQ

Syrian Position: Syria's current administration under President Ahmad al-Sharaa insists that Israel must adhere strictly to the 1974 agreement and withdraw from all territories occupied after December 8, 2024, when the regime collapsed. 

There is my December 8th date again.

Diplomacy - HIGH threat
🚨 Netanyahu eyes US nod for 3-wk strike on Hezbollah terror threat to secure borders. Israel pushes demilitarized zone in S. Syria amid US warnings vs. Assad targets—key to ME stability? #IsraelSecurity #HezbollahThreat #Syria #USIsrael

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Israel and Syria are engaging in talks for a new security agreement to replace the 1974 disengagement accord, as announced by Israeli Foreign Minister Gideon Saar, though skepticism persists due to ongoing Israeli military actions in Syria. Meanwhile, diplomatic efforts are expanding in the region, with increased focus on Israel-Lebanon-Syria ties, despite accusations of Israel violating existing agreements.

Israel-Syria Security Talks

Israeli Foreign Minister Gideon Saar explains why Israel and Syria are holding talks on a new security agreement to replace the 1974 disengagement accord. https://t.co/1giBFYGKic

#Israel-#Lebanon engagement is exapnding &amp; being diversified, with an increased focus on #diplomacy. This is an important development, recommended in my recent #Diplomeds piece on transforming Israel-Lebanon-#Syria ties. For more actionable priorities:
https://t.co/p4XmPVFXYP https://t.co/LjMadgTQr6

"#Israel seeks a security agreement with #Syria &amp; has no territorial ambitions," says 🇮🇱FM Sa'ar. This is sheer mockery. Claiming no ambitions while the country has been blanketed with Israeli bombs for years is the ultimate arrogance.
https://t.co/AJISZdDGRm

Syria's UN representative: Damascus is committed to the disengagement agreement, but Israel continues to violate it. https://t.co/gpbmkXvYbk

Israel and Syria are engaging in discussions for a new security agreement to replace the 1974 disengagement accord, as announced by Israeli Foreign Minister Gideon Saar, who claims Israel has no territorial ambitions. However, tensions persist as Syria's UN representative accuses Israel of violating the existing agreement, while diplomatic efforts between Israel, Lebanon, and Syria are also expanding.

Israel-Syria Talks Emerge

This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is an official security agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed deal between the governments of Israel and Syria by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

This market refers only to agreements which directly address border security and demarcation, normalization, or diplomatic recognition or otherwise creates a formalized security framework between the two states.    

Ceasefire announcements or other announced de-escalations such as those relating to the July 16-18 skirmishes with the Druze, or any other future military engagements, which do not address the broader security relationship will not qualify.

Only deals which are officially announced will qualify. Informal announcements which do not constitute a formalized agreement will not count.

The primary resolution source will be official statements from the Israeli and Syrian governments. However, an agreement which is announced by only of the parties will qualify if an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirms that such a formal agreement has been reached.

Israel x Syria security agreement by June 30?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if both Israel and Indonesia officially announce the establishment of diplomatic relations by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Israel and Indonesia, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by December 31, 2026?

This market will resolve based on the countries that officially recognize Israel as a state between November 20, 2025 and June 30, 2026, 11:59pm ET.

An announcement of intentions will not suffice to resolve this market to "Yes." Only a government's formal recognition of the State of Israel will count toward a “Yes” resolution for this market.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official government information. However, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Will Venezuela recognize Israel by June 30?

This market will resolve to “No” if any of the following conditions are met between this market’s creation and March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET:

- Israel strikes Iran
- Israel withdraws from Gaza
- Syria strikes Israel
- Israel and Lebanon normalize relations
- Israel x Hamas ceasefire cancelled
- Israel x Turkey military clash

Otherwise, this market will resolve to “Yes”.

The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Nothing+Ever+Happens+Israel+Edition.pdf

Nothing Ever Happens: Israel Edition

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel officially annexes any territory between July 22, 2025 and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."

Annexation is defined as an official declaration or legal act by the Israeli government claiming sovereignty over territory they were not claiming at the time of this market's creation.

Qualifying examples of annexation include the 1980 Jerusalem Law, and the Golan Heights Law, however instances where Israeli settlers claiming administrative control over land without a formal annexation will not count.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Israeli government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Will Israel annex any territory by June 30?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the sitting Israeli Knesset (Israel's parliament), as of this market's inception, is dissolved between September 20 and March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source for this market is official information from the government of Israel; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Israeli parliament dissolved by March 31?

On October 9, 2025 Israel and Hamas signed a deal implementing a ceasefire: https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/israel-hamas-agree-gaza-ceasefire-return-hostages-2025-10-09/

This market will resolve to "Yes" if a either Israel or Hamas announce the cancellation of the ongoing ceasefire, or if a consensus of credible reporting confirms that the ceasefire is no longer in effect, by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".

Announcements that one side or another violated the ongoing ceasefire will not be enough to resolve this market to "Yes"; only a definitive announcement by Israel or Hamas, or otherwise a wide consensus of credible reporting that that the ceasefire has been ended, will qualify to resolve this market to "Yes".

The primary solution resolution source will be official information from Hamas or the government of Israel, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Israel x Hamas ceasefire cancelled by June 30?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if either Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate, or Iran initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Israeli soil or any official Israeli embassy or consulate, by 11:59 PM ET on the listed date. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli or Iranian military forces that impact the other party’s ground territory or any official embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an Israeli missile, or an Israeli air base is hit by an Iranian drone, this market will resolve to "Yes") that is officially acknowledged by the relevant government or a consensus of credible reporting.

Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on the opposing party’s territory or cause damage.

Israel x Iran ceasefire broken by June 30, 2026?

On October 8, an agreement on an initial ceasefire (Phase 1) was announced, constituting a halt in fighting, a partial Israeli pullback to a “yellow line,” prisoner swaps, expanded aid, and the release of hostages. A second phase of the deal, yet to be negotiated, is expected to address further Israeli withdrawal, Hamas’s disarmament, and the establishment of new security and governance arrangements in Gaza.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if an official agreement for the second phase of the Israel–Hamas ceasefire, defined as a publicly announced mutual agreement, is reached between Israel and Hamas by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes," regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.

For purposes of this market, a “second phase” ceasefire agreement refers to a deal publicly acknowledged by both Israel and Hamas (directly or via recognized mediators such as the U.S., Egypt, or Qatar) that goes beyond the Phase 1 initial truce and includes commitments towards a comprehensive or “full” ceasefire.  Any agreement that is publicly described by the parties, or by mediators on their behalf, as the completion of “Phase 2” of the ceasefire will qualify, regardless of whether it includes further Israeli withdrawals beyond the “yellow line,” or agreements by Hamas to disarm.

An extension or continuation of the Phase 1 arrangement alone will not qualify.

This market's resolution will be based on official announcements from both Israel and Hamas, however a wide consensus of credible media reporting will also qualify.

Israel x Hamas Ceasefire Phase II by June 30?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel officially annexes any territory in the Gaza Strip by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Annexation is defined as an official declaration or legal act by the Israeli government claiming sovereignty over territory in the Gaza Strip that they were not claiming at the time of this market's creation.

Qualifying examples of annexation include the 1980 Jerusalem Law, and the Golan Heights Law. Instances where Israeli settlers claim administrative control over land in the Gaza Strip without formal annexation will not qualify.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Israeli government. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Will Israel annex Gaza territory by June 30 2026?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the U.S. government formally recognizes Somaliland as an independent state by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."

An announcement of intentions will not suffice to resolve this market to "Yes." Only the U.S. government's formal recognition of Somaliland as an independent state will count toward a "Yes" resolution for this market.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the U.S. government. However, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

US recognize Somaliland by June 30, 2026?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if an official agreement on nuclear arms control or strategic nuclear weapons limitation is reached between the United States and the Russian Federation between December 9, 2025 and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

Only agreements that are publicly announced and acknowledged by both the U.S. and Russia will qualify. The agreement must pertain to nuclear arms control or limitation—such as a treaty, framework, or memorandum—addressing matters including (but not limited to) nuclear warheads, delivery systems, verification mechanisms, or strategic stability.

An extension, amendment, or replacement of the New START treaty will qualify, provided it is publicly announced as a concluded agreement by both parties within the time frame. Exploratory discussions or stated intent to extend without a finalized agreement will not qualify.

Agreements that include both the United States and Russia as named parties—whether bilateral or as part of a broader multilateral framework—will qualify, provided the agreement directly addresses nuclear arms control.

The agreement does not need to be ratified or implemented for this market to resolve "Yes"; a formal announcement of a concluded agreement is sufficient.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from the U.S. government (e.g., the White House, State Department) and/or the Russian Federation (e.g., the Kremlin, Ministry of Foreign Affairs). However, a clear and overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming that such an agreement has been reached will also qualify.

U.S. x Russia Nuclear deal by June 30?

On Friday, December 26th, Israel became the first country to recognize Somaliland as a sovereign state. You can read more about that here: https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/israel-recognises-somaliland-somalias-breakway-region-independent-state-2025-12-26/.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if any other UN member state formally recognizes the Republic of Somaliland as a sovereign state by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Only formal recognition of Somaliland will qualify. Statements/actions which acknowledge the Republic of Somaliland, or change its diplomatic status with a relevant country, but do not formally recognize the Republic of Somaliland as a sovereign state will not qualify.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of a recognizing country; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Will another country recognize Somaliland by March 31?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Greater Beirut between market creation and the listed date, Israel Standard Time (IST). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact within Greater Beirut.

For the purposes of this market, “Greater Beirut” refers to the continuous urbanized zone that encompasses all of the Beirut Governorate and the adjacent coastal and suburban municipalities of the Mount Lebanon Governorate. For this market, the geographic boundaries as defined in the map “Location of the Greater Beirut Area” (https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Beirut-3ffb23044f.png) from Faour & Mhawej (2014), Mapping Urban Transitions in the Greater Beirut Area Using Different Space Platforms (https://www.mdpi.com/2073-445X/3/3/941) will be used. If the precise location of a strike cannot be clearly attributed to the defined territory based on the referenced map, it will not qualify.

Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on the specified territory or cause damage.

Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.

The primary resolution source will be official government/military statements (Israeli or foreign), multilateral bodies (UN, etc.), or a consensus of credible reporting from major international media and national broadcasters/newspapers.

If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting within 48 hours of this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.

Will Israel strike Greater Beirut by March 31, 2026?

If Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu visits New York City by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For the purpose of this market, a "visit" is defined as Netanyahu physically entering the terrestrial territory of New York City, and setting foot on the ground. Whether or not Netanyahu enters New York City's airspace or maritime territory during the timeframe of this market will have no bearing on a positive resolution.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the governments of Israel, the United States, or New York City, or official information from Netanyahu or released by his verified social media accounts (e.g. https://twitter.com/netanyahu); however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Will Netanyahu visit NYC by March 31?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel initiates a nuclear strike on Iranian soil by January 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”

Strikes on official Iranian embassies or consulates located outside of Iranian territory will not qualify.

For the purposes of this market, a qualifying “nuclear strike” is defined as a confirmed launch of any nuclear weapon, including but not limited to fission weapons, fusion weapons, thermonuclear devices, or hydrogen bomb warheads, launched by Israeli military forces via missile, aircraft, or other delivery system towards Iranian ground territory.

Launched delivery systems carrying nuclear warheads that are intercepted or that fail to produce a nuclear detonation will qualify regardless.

Actions such as radiological weapons or “dirty bombs” (i.e., devices intended to disperse radioactive material without a nuclear detonation), conventional (non-nuclear) airstrikes, or any other conventional use of force conducted by Israeli forces will not qualify.

The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Israel nuclear weapon use against Iran by January 31?

The United States has suspended operations of the Embassy in Damascus since February 6, 2012. As of market creation, the Government of the Czech Republic serves as the protecting power for U.S. interests in Syria and provides limited consular services to U.S. citizens.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the U.S. government announces the reopening of its embassy in Damascus or if such a reopening is otherwise confirmed by 11:59 PM ET on the specified date. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

An official announcement made within this market’s timeframe will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether an actual embassy opening subsequently takes place within the timeframe.

Any opening of a U.S. embassy in Damascus will qualify regardless of its exact location.

Announcements that do not clearly commit to opening an embassy, such as general diplomatic statements, exploratory comments, or partial/conditional steps, will not count.

The resolution source will be official statements from the Governments of the U.S. and Syria; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

U.S. Embassy in Damascus reopened by June 30, 2026?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Yemeni soil or any official Yemen embassy or consulate by the listed date, 11:59 PM Israeli local time. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact Yemen ground territory or any official Yemen embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Yemen soil is hit by an Israeli missile, this market will resolve to "Yes").

Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on Yemen territory or cause damage.

Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.

The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Israel strike on Yemen by June 30, 2026?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Hamas officially announces it will disarm in the Gaza Strip by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Only credible announcements, for example by the widely acknowledged leadership of Hamas, will qualify.

For the purposes of this market, "disarm" refers to a public commitment to relinquish or dismantle its military, whether partially or completely, in the Gaza Strip.

Announcements of partial disarmament (e.g., surrendering a class of weapons or agreeing to disarm in stages or a certain region) will qualify as long as it is part of an acknowledged disarmament process.

Only official announcements will qualify. Informal statements, plans contingent on future conditions, statements of intent without a formal policy directive, or any other statements that do not constitute a formal policy announcement will not be considered.

Primary resolution sources will include official statements from Hamas leadership; however, a wide consensus of credible reporting confirming a policy of disarmament has been instituted will also qualify.

Israel and Syria normalize relations by...?

June 30, 2026
$229,677 Vol.
15%
0123456789
%

December 31, 2026
$321,478 Vol.
27%
0123456789
%

Market Context

Israel and Syria normalize relations by...?

Rules

Israel and Syria normalize relations by...?

Market Context

Israel and Syria normalize relations by...?

About

Related

Israel and Syria normalize relations by...?

June 30, 2026$229,677 Vol.15%0123456789%buy Yes15¢buy No86¢

December 31, 2026$321,478 Vol.27%0123456789%buy Yes28¢buy No74¢

Market Context

Israel and Syria normalize relations by...?

Rules

Israel and Syria normalize relations by...?

Market Context

Israel and Syria normalize relations by...?

About

Related

June 30, 2026
$229,677 Vol.
15%
0123456789
%

December 31, 2026
$321,478 Vol.
27%
0123456789
%