Name: Is Vivek Ramaswamy GCR?
Start: 2023-09-11T18:20:03.039Z
End: 2023-09-30T00:00:00Z

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This market will resolve to "Yes" if it is confirmed that Vivek Ramaswamy is behind the @GiganticRebirth and/or @GCRClassic Twitter/X accounts by September 30, 2023, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source will be information released by Vivek Ramaswamy or his official representative, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Is Vivek Ramaswamy GCR?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if @TheRoaringKitty posts between July 23, 10:40 AM ET, and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For the purposes of this market, all quote and reply posts count toward a "Yes" resolution, but reposts will not count.

The resolution source for this market will be Roaring Kitty's verified X account: https://x.com/TheRoaringKitty.

Please note, only the @TheRoaringKitty verified X account counts for this market, regardless of the URL for this profile. If Roaring Kitty posts from another account, it has no bearing on the resolution of this market.

Will Roaring Kitty tweet again by December 31?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if X relaunches Vine by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

"Relaunching Vine" is defined as launching a platform and/or feature that performs similar functions to Vine, and is branded as a "relaunch of Vine" by Elon Musk or X itself. Note - the relaunch must be live and broadly accessible to the public before the resolution date for this market to resolve to "Yes".

The primary resolution source will be the Vine platform, as well as official information from Elon Musk and X, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

X relaunches Vine in 2025?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Elon Musk (@elonmusk) changes his X profile picture by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source for this market will be Elon Musk's X account: https://x.com/elonmusk

For an example of what Elon Musk's X pfp was at the time of this market's inception, see this link: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/elonmuskpfp11072025.png


Will Elon Musk change his X profile picture by December 31?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Variational officially launches a governance token by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

The token must be actively and publicly transferable and tradable. Announcements alone do not qualify.

The primary resolution source for this market will be information from Variational (https://x.com/variational_io), however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Will Variational launch a token in 2025?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if OpenAI integrates advertisements into ChatGPT, GPT-4, GPT-4.1, GPT-5, or any successor general-purpose GPT model made publicly available by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Limited advertisement releases restricted to a specific region, model, or user group will qualify. The release must be publicly announced as accessible to the relevant users. Closed betas or fully private testing do not count.

Once implemented, the market will resolve to “Yes” immediately, regardless of whether the integration is later removed.

An announcement will not suffice to resolve this market to "Yes"; only the release of the advertisement integration will trigger a "Yes" resolution for this market.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

GPT ads by December 31?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if at any point any Google Gemini 3 model has at least the specified arena score based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text) by December 31, 2025, 12:00 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Results from the "Arena Score" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with the style control off will be used to resolve this market.

The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.

Will any Google Gemini 3 model score at least 1500 on LMArena by December 31?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if xAI's Grok 5 model is made available to the general public by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."

For this market to resolve to "Yes," Grok 5 must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be clearly defined and publicly announced by Anthropic as being accessible to the general public.

Grok 5 refers to a product explicitly named Grok 5 (e.g. Grok 5.0 would count), or one that is recognized as a successor to Grok 4 similar to the progression from Grok 2 to Grok 3. Products labeled as Grok 4.5 or similar will not count for this market's resolution.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from xAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.

Grok 5 released by March 31, 2026?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Gavin Newsom officially announces that he is running for U.S. President in the 2028 presidential election, by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."

For the purpose of resolving this market, an announcement by Gavin Newsom will be sufficient to trigger a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether he actually filed a nomination to run, or whether he actually files a nomination to run in the future.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements by Gavin Newsom (e.g., via speech, social media, etc.) or his official or legal representatives; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Will Gavin Newsom announce a Presidential run by December 31, 2026?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if MrBeast (@mrbeast) changes his X profile picture by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source for this market will be MrBeast's X account: https://x.com/mrbeast

For an example of what MrBeast's X pfp was at the time of this market's inception, see this link: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/mrbeastpfpdec.png

Will MrBeast change his X profile picture by December 31?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if credible reporting confirms that Elon Musk, either personally or through an entity led by him, enters into an agreement to buy OpenAI (or the nonprofit that controls OpenAI) by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

An announced agreement between Elon Musk and OpenAI will qualify for a “Yes” resolution, regardless of whether the acquisition is ultimately completed.

An agreement to merge with an entity led by Elon Musk will count toward "Yes" resolution.

The primary resolution source for this market is official information from Elon Musk, Sam Altman, and/or OpenAI however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Will Elon Musk buy OpenAI in 2025?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Grok has a native macOS desktop application publicly available for download in the U.S by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The application must be officially released by xAI (or Elon Musk via official xAI/Grok communication channels).

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from xAI, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Will Grok have a MacOS desktop app live by December 31?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if The Second Coming of Jesus Christ occurs by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.

Will Jesus Christ return in 2025?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if OpenAI's GPT-6 model is made available to the general public by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."

For this market to resolve to "Yes," GPT-6 must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be clearly defined and publicly announced by OpenAI as being accessible to the general public.

GPT-6 refers to a product explicitly named GPT-6 (e.g. ChatGPT-6o would count), or one that is recognized as a successor to GPT-5, similar to the progression from GPT-3 to GPT-4. Products labeled as GPT-5.5 or similar will not count for this market's resolution.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.

Will GPT-6 be released by December 31, 2026?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if OpenAI or an official representative of the company announces that it has created an artificial general intelligence (AGI) by December 31, 2025 ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI and/or its official representative, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.


OpenAI announces it has achieved AGI in 2025?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Ethereum (ETH) is not the second or first largest cryptocurrency by market capitalization at any point between March 9, and December 31, 2025 ET, according to CoinGecko. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source will be CoinGecko. If CoinGecko becomes permanently unavailable, another credible source will be chosen. If there is ambiguity, a consensus of credible reporting will be used.

ETH flipped in 2025?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if ChatGPT reaches 1 billion monthly active users (MAUs) during by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PMET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."

The primary resolution source will be official information from OpenAI, however a consensus of reputable sources including, major analytics firms (e.g. Similarweb, Sensor Tower), investor or regulatory disclosures, or reputable media may also be used. 

Will ChatGPT reach 1b monthly active users in 2025?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if OpenAI or an official representative of the company announces that it has created an artificial general intelligence (AGI) by December 31, 2026 ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI and/or its official representative, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

OpenAI announces it has achieved AGI before 2027?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if incontrovertible proof is publicly revealed that former presidential candidate John McAfee is still alive between January 23 and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.

Is John McAfee alive?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Trump Media & Technology Group (TMTG) buys any amount of $TRUMP (https://solscan.io/token/6p6xgHyF7AeE6TZkSmFsko444wqoP15icUSqi2jfGiPN), either directly or through a subsidiary, between July 21, and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source for this market will be announcements through official information from TMTG, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Will Trump Media buy $TRUMP in 2025?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Conrad Kramer ceases any employment or formal contractual involvement with OpenAI, for any length of time by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

This includes any termination, suspension, or withdrawal of his contractual or partnership obligations with OpenAI.

An official announcement of Conrad’s departure from OpenAI (e.g., a statement from OpenAI or Conrad indicating he will no longer be engaged with OpenAI) will qualify, regardless of when the announced departure takes effect.

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Will Conrad Kramer leave OpenAI by December 31, 2026?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if both Changpeng Zhao and Roger Ver receive a presidential pardon, commutation, or reprieve from Donald Trump by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source for whether the individual is pardoned or not will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Trump Crypto Pardon Parlay

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the MrBeast YouTube channel (https://www.youtube.com/@MrBeast) hits 500 million subscribers by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET.  Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source for this market will be the MrBeast YouTube channel (https://www.youtube.com/@MrBeast) or a consensus of credible reporting.

Will MrBeast hit 500 Million subscribers by Dec 31?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if GPT-5 achieves a score of 70% or greater on the FrontierMath Exam by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No".

This market will resolve according to the Epoch AI’s Frontier Math benchmarking leaderboard (https://epoch.ai/frontiermath) for Tier 1-3. Studies which are not included in the leaderboard (e.g. https://x.com/EpochAIResearch/status/1945905796904005720) will not be considered.

The primary resolution source will be information from EpochAI; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used. 

GPT-5 scores ≥ 70% on FrontierMath Benchmark by December 31?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump signs a bill into law or performs any executive action changing US tax law to eliminate capital gains tax on any cryptocurrency assets by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Such a bill must apply to US taxpaying persons in general; if a law applies only to specific companies or institutions, it will not qualify toward a "Yes" resolution to this market.

If capital gains is eliminated only for specific types or classes of crypto assets (e.g., only Bitcoin or Ethereum, only American issued cryptocurrencies, or only NFTs), it will still count toward a "Yes" resolution for this market.

If the bill is signed into law, or executive action is instituted before the resolution date, it will suffice to resolve this market to "Yes" regardless of when it takes effect.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US federal government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Trump eliminates capital gains tax on crypto in 2025?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if David Baszucki ceases to be CEO of Roblox for any length of time between August 14, and December 31, 2025 ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

An announcement of David Baszucki's resignation/firing before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/firing goes into effect.

This market's primary resolution source will be official information from Roblox and/or David Baszucki, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.


David Baszucki out as Roblox CEO in 2025?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Kraken completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) by the listed date ET, as confirmed by official company announcements and credible news sources. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."

The IPO refers to the first sale of stock by the listed company to the public on any recognized stock exchange.

If Kraken is acquired by another company that is already public, this market will immediately resolve to "No."

The resolution source for this market is a consensus of credible reporting.

Kraken IPO by March 31, 2026?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if incontrovertible proof is publicly revealed that Jeff Epstein, the New York financier, is still alive between July 13 and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.


Is Jeffrey Epstein alive?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the MrBeast YouTube channel (https://www.youtube.com/@MrBeast) hits the specified number of subscribers by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET.  Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source for this market will be the MrBeast YouTube channel (https://www.youtube.com/@MrBeast) or a consensus of credible reporting.

Will MrBeast hit 460 Million subscribers by December 31?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if credible reporting confirms that any entity enters into an agreement to acquire Snapchat by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

Mergers where Snapchat is subsumed by another entity will count toward a "Yes" resolution.

An announced agreement between Snapchat and an acquiring entity will qualify for a “Yes” resolution, regardless of whether the acquisition is ultimately completed.

The primary resolution source for this market is official information from Snapchat and/or its leadership, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Snapchat acquired in 2025?

This market will resolve based on the next earnings announcement of NVIDIA currently scheduled to take place on November 19, 2025 at 5:00 PM EST.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed term is mentioned by anyone during this event. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No".

Any usage of the term, regardless of context, will count toward the resolution of this market.

Pluralization/possessive of the term will count toward the resolution of this market; however, other forms will NOT count.

Instances where the term is used in a compound word will count regardless of context (e.g. joyful is not a compound word for "joy," however "killjoy" is a compounding of the words "kill" and "joy").

If this market requires a specified number of mentions of a person’s first or last name, a full-name mention will count as one mention (e.g., if a market is about “Joe / Biden 5+ times,” a mention of “Joe Biden” will count once).

A Q&A event will count toward the resolution of this market.

If this event is definitely cancelled, or otherwise is not aired by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source will be audio of the event.

Will NVIDIA say "Gaming" during earnings call?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Elon Musk's net worth, as listed on the Bloomberg Billionaires Index, reaches or exceeds $1 trillion at any point by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source for this market will be the Bloomberg Billionaires Index (https://www.bloomberg.com/billionaires/), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.


Elon Musk trillionaire in 2025?

This market will resolve to “No” if any of the following conditions are met between September 19, 2025, 6 PM ET, and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET:

- Artificial Intelligence is named TIME's Person of 2025
- GPT-5 scores above 40% on Humanity’s Last Exam
- AI wins IMO gold medal
- AI model scores ≥ 90% on FrontierMath Benchmark
- AI scores ≥85% on ARC-AGI-2

Otherwise, this market will resolve to “Yes”.

If resolution-relevant information regarding the events mentioned above is not available by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, this market will remain open until January 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. If by that date there is still no clear information indicating that one of the listed events has occurred,  this market will resolve to “Yes”.

The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/AI.png
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/AI2.png

Nothing Ever Happens: AI Edition

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Rabby officially launches a token by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The token must be actively and publicly transferable and tradable. Announcements alone do not qualify

The primary resolution source for this market will be information from Rabby, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.


Will Rabby launch a token in 2025?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if, at any point by November 15, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, Claude Sonnet 4.5 “Current Value” on the UnifAI’s Polyarena leaderboard exceeds that of Grok 4. Otherwise, it will resolve to “No.”

The resolution source will be the Portfolio Value History chart available at https://polyarena.unifai.network/.

Because data points may be recorded at slightly different times for each model, comparisons will be made using the latest available Grok value prior to each Claude data point. If both models have data points at the same timestamp, those values will be compared directly.

If the resolution source becomes temporarily unavailable during the market timeframe, this market will resolve once the corresponding data for that period becomes available.

If the resolution source becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to “No.”



Will Claude pass Grok by November 15 on the UnifAI Polyarena?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US government holds any amount of XRP in its reserves at any point between January 15, 2025, ET and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Note that the US government confiscating XRP does not count as holding XRP reserves.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US government and/or the US federal reserve, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

US national XRP reserve in 2025?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if all of the following conditions are met by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET:

- Grok has a native macOS desktop application publicly available for download
- OpenAI publicly releases a standalone web browser
- Apple releases a new AirTag product
- Google's Gemini 3.0 model is made available to the general public
- Grokipedia is made available to the general public

Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

This market will remain open until it is confirmed that at least one of the above conditions has not been met, or until all of the above conditions have been met.

Qualifying releases during this market's timeframe will count, regardless of any subsequent reversal, rollback, or withdrawal of access.

The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Tech.pdf 

Tech Release Parlay

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Humanity’s Last Exam leaderboard lists any Google Gemini 3 model with a score of at least the specified score by the specified January 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source will be the official Humanity’s Last Exam leaderboard https://scale.com/leaderboard/humanitys_last_exam.

Will Google Gemini 3 score at least 30% on Humanity’s Last Exam by January 31?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if it is announced that Meta Platforms, Inc. has reached a settlement with the Federal Trade Commission over the issues outlined in the Federal Trade Commission v. Meta Platforms, Inc. (Case No. 1:20-cv-03590-JEB) case by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to “No.”

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Will Meta settle with the FTC?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if it is announced that the Chrome web browser will be, has been, or is being acquired by or merged with OpenAI by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

An announcement by Google/Alphabet will qualify for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether the announced acquisition or merger actually occurs.

Partnerships, integrations, licensing deals, or other forms of collaboration between Chrome and OpenAI that do not constitute an acquisition or merger will not count toward a "Yes" resolution.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Google/Alphabet, or OpenAI; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Will OpenAI acquire Chrome by December 31?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Gavin Newsom is no longer serving as Governor of California for any length of time between January 13 and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

An announcement of Gavin Newsom's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.

This market's resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.


Gavin Newsom out as California Governor in 2025?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if President of the United States Donald Trump announces he has resigned or will resign the presidency by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."

If it becomes impossible for Donald Trump to resign or to announce his resignation (e.g., due to his removal from office by other means, etc.), this market will immediately resolve to "No."

For this market to resolve to "Yes," it is only necessary that Trump announce that he has resigned or will resign. Whether he actually resigns will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US federal government; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Is Vivek Ramaswamy GCR?

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Is Vivek Ramaswamy GCR?

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Is Vivek Ramaswamy GCR?

Market Context

Is Vivek Ramaswamy GCR?

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