Note on Middle East Markets: The promise of prediction markets is to harness the wisdom of the crowd to create accurate, unbiased forecasts for the most important events to society. That ability is particularly invaluable in gut-wrenching times like today. After discussing with those directly affected by the attacks, who had dozens of questions, we realized that prediction markets could give them the answers they needed in ways TV news and 𝕏 could not.

Market icon

How many Israeli strikes on Yemen by October 31?

Market icon

How many Israeli strikes on Yemen by October 31?

0 100.0%

1 <1%

2 <1%

3 <1%

Polymarket

$257,117 Vol.

0 100.0%

1 <1%

2 <1%

3 <1%

Polymarket

$257,117 Vol.

0

$75,702 Vol.

Yes

1

$47,171 Vol.

No

2

$74,254 Vol.

No

3

$22,071 Vol.

No

4

$18,156 Vol.

No

5+

$19,762 Vol.

No

This market will resolve according to the number of days (ET) on which Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Yemeni soil or any official Yemeni embassy or consulate between October 3, 3:00 PM ET, and October 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET.

If multiple strikes occur within 4 hours of each other, they will be counted as a single strike, regardless of whether the strikes span two days (e.g., if Israel strikes on September 15 at 10:00 PM ET and September 16 at 1 AM ET, this will count as a single strike for September 15). The timing of the strike will be based on the reported time of impact.

For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact Yemeni ground territory or any official Yemeni embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Yemeni soil is hit by an Israeli missile, this market will resolve to "Yes").

Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on Yemeni territory or cause damage.

Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.

The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$257,117
End Date
Oct 31, 2025
Market Opened
Oct 3, 2025, 3:47 PM ET
This market will resolve according to the number of days (ET) on which Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Yemeni soil or any official Yemeni embassy or consulate between October 3, 3:00 PM ET, and October 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. If multiple strikes occur within 4 hours of each other, they will be counted as a single strike, regardless of whether the strikes span two days (e.g., if Israel strikes on September 15 at 10:00 PM ET and September 16 at 1 AM ET, this will count as a single strike for September 15). The timing of the strike will be based on the reported time of impact. For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact Yemeni ground territory or any official Yemeni embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Yemeni soil is hit by an Israeli missile, this market will resolve to "Yes"). Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on Yemeni territory or cause damage. Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Outcome proposed: Yes

No dispute

Final outcome: Yes

Beware of external links.

Frequently Asked Questions

"How many Israeli strikes on Yemen by October 31?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 6 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "0" at 100%, followed by "1" at 0%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 100¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 100% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "How many Israeli strikes on Yemen by October 31?" has generated $257.1K in total trading volume since the market launched on Oct 3, 2025. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "How many Israeli strikes on Yemen by October 31?," browse the 6 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "How many Israeli strikes on Yemen by October 31?" is "0" at 100%, meaning the market assigns a 100% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "1" at 0%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "How many Israeli strikes on Yemen by October 31?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.