Name: How many acres will Palisades wildfire burn in total?
Start: 2025-01-09T17:51:06.55062Z
End: 2025-06-30T12:00:00Z

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This is a market on predicting the total acreage burned by the Palisades wildfire.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Palisades fire in California burns less than 20,000 acres in total. Otherwise this market will resolve to “No.”

This market will resolve based on the total number of acres the Palisades fire burnt once it is no longer active (100% contained). If the fire is still active as of December, 31, 2025, 11:59 PM PT, this market will resolve based on total number of acres burnt at that point. 

The resolution source is official updates from https://www.fire.ca.gov/. If the website for the California Department of Forestry and Fire Protection becomes unavailable, another credible source will be used.

<20,000

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Palisades fire in California burns between 50,000 (inclusive) and 60,000 (exclusive) acres in total. Otherwise this market will resolve to “No.”

This market will resolve based on the total number of acres the Palisades fire burnt once it is no longer active (100% contained). If the fire is still active as of December, 31, 2025, 11:59 PM PT, this market will resolve based on total number of acres burnt at that point. 

The resolution source is official updates from https://www.fire.ca.gov/. If the website for the California Department of Forestry and Fire Protection becomes unavailable, another credible source will be used.

50-60k

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Palisades fire in California burns between 20,000 (inclusive) and 30,000 (exclusive) acres in total. Otherwise this market will resolve to “No.”

This market will resolve based on the total number of acres the Palisades fire burnt once it is no longer active (100% contained). If the fire is still active as of December, 31, 2025, 11:59 PM PT, this market will resolve based on total number of acres burnt at that point. 

The resolution source is official updates from https://www.fire.ca.gov/. If the website for the California Department of Forestry and Fire Protection becomes unavailable, another credible source will be used.

20-30k

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Palisades fire in California burns between 30,000 (inclusive) and 40,000 (exclusive) acres in total. Otherwise this market will resolve to “No.”

This market will resolve based on the total number of acres the Palisades fire burnt once it is no longer active (100% contained). If the fire is still active as of December, 31, 2025, 11:59 PM PT, this market will resolve based on total number of acres burnt at that point. 

The resolution source is official updates from https://www.fire.ca.gov/. If the website for the California Department of Forestry and Fire Protection becomes unavailable, another credible source will be used.

30-40k

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Palisades fire in California burns between 40,000 (inclusive) and 50,000 (exclusive) acres in total. Otherwise this market will resolve to “No.”

This market will resolve based on the total number of acres the Palisades fire burnt once it is no longer active (100% contained). If the fire is still active as of December, 31, 2025, 11:59 PM PT, this market will resolve based on total number of acres burnt at that point. 

The resolution source is official updates from https://www.fire.ca.gov/. If the website for the California Department of Forestry and Fire Protection becomes unavailable, another credible source will be used.

40-50k

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Palisades fire in California burns between 60,000 or more acres in total. Otherwise this market will resolve to “No.”

This market will resolve based on the total number of acres the Palisades fire burnt once it is no longer active (100% contained). If the fire is still active as of December, 31, 2025, 11:59 PM PT, this market will resolve based on total number of acres burnt at that point. 

The resolution source is official updates from https://www.fire.ca.gov/. If the website for the California Department of Forestry and Fire Protection becomes unavailable, another credible source will be used.

60k+

How many acres will Palisades wildfire burn in total?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if SpaceX has between 160 (inclusive) and 179 (inclusive) launches in 2025. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No."

The resolution source is the FAA, specifically the number shown next to SpaceX when 2025 is selected here https://www.faa.gov/data_research/commercial_space_data.

Will SpaceX have between 160-179 launches in 2025?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if an earthquake with a magnitude of 6.5 or greater occurs within a 50-mile radius of Los Angeles, California (34.0522° N, 118.2437° W) between June 9 and December 31, 2025 at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Map (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/map/?extent=32.54681,-121.05835&extent=35.63944,-114.90601).

For the purposes of this market, The epicenter must fall within 50 miles of Los Angeles (34.0522° N, 118.2437° W), calculated as a straight-line distance from the epicenter to the reference point.

If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.

Magnitude 6.5+ earthquake in LA before 2026?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if, Paramount (directly or through a subsidiary) acquires control of Warner Bros. Discovery's studios and streaming businesses by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

Resolution will be based on official company communications and regulatory filings from Paramount and Warner Bros. Discovery (or any successor entities), supplemented as needed by a consensus of reporting from major reputable news outlets.

Will Paramount close Warner Bros. acquisition by end of 2026?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Pacifica (https://x.com/pacifica_fi) officially launches a governance token by 11:59 PM ET on the date specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

The token must be actively and publicly transferable and tradable. Announcements alone do not qualify.

The primary resolution source for this market will be information from Pacifica, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Will Pacifica launch a token by December 31 2026?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater or equal to 5 kilotons of TNT equivalent between May 28, and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.

The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2026, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.

5kt meteor strike in 2025?

This market will resolve to according to the candidate who wins the 2026 California gubernatorial election currently scheduled for November 3, 2026.

If the results of the election are not confirmed by July 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on official certification.

Will Eric Swalwell win the California Governor Election in 2026?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater or equal to 10 kilotons of TNT equivalent between May 28, and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.

The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2026, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.


Major meteor strike (10kt+) in 2025?

This is a polymarket to predict whether the listed NFL team will win more than their projected number of games in the 2025–26 regular season.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed team wins more than their projected number of regular season games. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No".

If the team becomes mathematically unable to exceed their projected win total before the season ends, this market will resolve to "No".

If the 2025–26 NFL regular season is canceled or not completed by May 31, 2026, this market will resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source will be official information from the NFL. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Will the Green Bay Packers win 10 or more regular season games?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Gävle Goat, a traditional Christmas display erected annually in Gävle, Sweden, is set on fire by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM CET. The fire must be confirmed by an official Gävle Goat social media account, the City of Gävle's official website, or a consensus of credible reporting. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".

If the Gävle Goat is destroyed by other means this will not  qualify.

Will the Gävle Goat burn in 2025?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed team wins more than their listed projected number of regular-season games. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No".

If the team becomes mathematically unable to exceed their projected win total before the season ends, this market will resolve to "No".

The primary source of resolution will be official information from the NBA. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Will the Miami Heat win more than 37.5 regular season games in 2025–26?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Based’s cumulative Polymarket revenue is equal to or greater than the value specified in the title by December 31, 2026 ET. Otherwise, the market will resolve to “No”.

The resolution source for this market is the Based revenue bar chart available at https://dune.com/datadashboards/based-statistics, using the “Cumulative Revenue” value displayed when hovering over the daily data point.

This market will resolve as soon as the cumulative revenue shown on the dashboard is equal to or greater than the value specified in the title, or once the value for Dec 31, 2026 is finalized and no earlier value has met or exceeded that threshold.

If the resolution source becomes permanently unavailable, the market will resolve based on on-chain data, Based official communication, or other reliable crypto sources.

Will Based Polymarket revenue hit $1M before 2027?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if it is announced that Warner Bros. Discovery's studios and streaming businesses will be, have been, or are being acquired by or merged with Paramount Global by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

An official announcement will qualify for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether the merger or acquisition is ultimately completed.

Any merger or acquisition will qualify regardless of whether it regards all of Warner Bros. Discovery's studios and streaming businesses or only a subset of those businesses (including, for example, HBO / Max, Warner Bros. Pictures, Warner Bros. Television, or related streaming platforms and content libraries).

The primary resolution source for this market is official information from Paramount Global and/or Warner Bros. Discovery; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

How many acres will Palisades wildfire burn in total?

<20,000
$24,204 Vol.
No

20-30k
$67,571 Vol.
Yes

30-40k
$31,786 Vol.
No

40-50k
$52,011 Vol.
No

50-60k
$39,982 Vol.
No

60k+
$45,053 Vol.
No

Market Context

How many acres will Palisades wildfire burn in total?

Rules

How many acres will Palisades wildfire burn in total?

Market Context

How many acres will Palisades wildfire burn in total?

About

Related

How many acres will Palisades wildfire burn in total?

<20,000$24,204 Vol.Nocircle xmark

20-30k$67,571 Vol.Yescircle check

30-40k$31,786 Vol.Nocircle xmark

40-50k$52,011 Vol.Nocircle xmark

50-60k$39,982 Vol.Nocircle xmark

60k+$45,053 Vol.Nocircle xmark

Market Context

How many acres will Palisades wildfire burn in total?

Rules

How many acres will Palisades wildfire burn in total?

Market Context

How many acres will Palisades wildfire burn in total?

About

Related

<20,000
$24,204 Vol.
No

20-30k
$67,571 Vol.
Yes

30-40k
$31,786 Vol.
No

40-50k
$52,011 Vol.
No

50-60k
$39,982 Vol.
No

60k+
$45,053 Vol.
No