Market icon

How many 6.5 or above earthquakes by December 28?

$16,499 Vol.

1 42%

2 40%

3 22%

5 6%

OUTCOME
% CHANCE

Rules

This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 6.5 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between December 22, 12:00 AM ET, and December 28, 2025, 11:59 PM ET.

The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).

If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 5, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.

After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
Volume
$16,499
End Date
Dec 28, 2025
Created At
Dec 22, 2025, 8:54 PM UTC

Outcome proposed: No

No dispute

Final outcome: No

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Beware of external links.

$16,499 Vol.

Market icon

How many 6.5 or above earthquakes by December 28?

1 42%

2 40%

3 22%

5 6%

OUTCOME
% CHANCE

0

$16,285 Vol.

<1%

1

$5 Vol.

42%

2

$140 Vol.

40%

3

$0 Vol.

22%

4

$10 Vol.

2%

5

$0 Vol.

6%

>5

$59 Vol.

4%

About

Volume
$16,499
End Date
Dec 28, 2025
Created At
Dec 22, 2025, 8:54 PM UTC
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Beware of external links.