Trader consensus on Polymarket has converged to a near-certain 100% implied probability for a highest temperature of 20°C in Shanghai on April 17, anchored by real-time observational data from Shanghai Pudong International Airport (ZSPD) METAR reports, which recorded a midday peak of 19-20°C under overcast conditions and light northerly winds suppressing further warming. This positioning reflects hourly measurements consistent with earlier China Meteorological Administration guidance forecasting highs around 20-21°C amid cooler spring patterns, below the April historical average of 19°C but aligned with recent cloudy persistence limiting solar heating. Realistic challenges would require an improbable late-afternoon surge past 21°C before daily resolution, with final official tallies from CMA expected shortly.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Shanghai on April 17?
Highest temperature in Shanghai on April 17?
20°C 100.0%
13°C or below <1%
14°C <1%
15°C <1%
$253,638 Vol.
$253,638 Vol.
13°C or below
No
14°C
No
15°C
No
16°C
No
17°C
No
18°C
No
19°C
No
20°C
Yes
21°C
No
22°C
No
23°C or higher
No
20°C 100.0%
13°C or below <1%
14°C <1%
15°C <1%
$253,638 Vol.
$253,638 Vol.
13°C or below
No
14°C
No
15°C
No
16°C
No
17°C
No
18°C
No
19°C
No
20°C
Yes
21°C
No
22°C
No
23°C or higher
No
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Opened: Apr 15, 2026, 12:06 AM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPDResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPDResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
Trader consensus on Polymarket has converged to a near-certain 100% implied probability for a highest temperature of 20°C in Shanghai on April 17, anchored by real-time observational data from Shanghai Pudong International Airport (ZSPD) METAR reports, which recorded a midday peak of 19-20°C under overcast conditions and light northerly winds suppressing further warming. This positioning reflects hourly measurements consistent with earlier China Meteorological Administration guidance forecasting highs around 20-21°C amid cooler spring patterns, below the April historical average of 19°C but aligned with recent cloudy persistence limiting solar heating. Realistic challenges would require an improbable late-afternoon surge past 21°C before daily resolution, with final official tallies from CMA expected shortly.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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