Recent ensemble forecasts from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) and German Weather Service (DWD) cluster Munich’s August 18 maximum near 19–21 °C, supported by strengthening westerly flow, persistent cloud cover, and scattered showers that limit daytime solar heating. Operational models from AccuWeather and the UK Met Office align on a daytime high of 20 °C under mostly cloudy skies, well below the late-August climatological average of 22–23 °C. These consistent atmospheric conditions underpin the market’s 100 % implied probability on 20 °C. A realistic shift would require unexpected clearing and stronger insolation or model errors that allow temperatures to exceed the upper forecast range by late afternoon.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Munich on August 18?
Highest temperature in Munich on August 18?
20°C 100.0%
15°C or below <1%
16°C <1%
17°C <1%
$233,102 Vol.
$233,102 Vol.
Aug 18, 2026
15°C or below
No
16°C
No
17°C
No
18°C
No
19°C
No
20°C
Yes
21°C
No
22°C
No
23°C
No
24°C
No
25°C or higher
No
20°C 100.0%
15°C or below <1%
16°C <1%
17°C <1%
$233,102 Vol.
$233,102 Vol.
Aug 18, 2026
15°C or below
$11,542 Vol.
No
16°C
$17,038 Vol.
No
17°C
$15,740 Vol.
No
18°C
$20,112 Vol.
No
19°C
$47,217 Vol.
No
20°C
$17,611 Vol.
Yes
21°C
$23,254 Vol.
No
22°C
$21,540 Vol.
No
23°C
$14,845 Vol.
No
24°C
$25,832 Vol.
No
25°C or higher
$18,373 Vol.
No
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Munich Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Munich Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/de/munich/EDDM.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent ensemble forecasts from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) and German Weather Service (DWD) cluster Munich’s August 18 maximum near 19–21 °C, supported by strengthening westerly flow, persistent cloud cover, and scattered showers that limit daytime solar heating. Operational models from AccuWeather and the UK Met Office align on a daytime high of 20 °C under mostly cloudy skies, well below the late-August climatological average of 22–23 °C. These consistent atmospheric conditions underpin the market’s 100 % implied probability on 20 °C. A realistic shift would require unexpected clearing and stronger insolation or model errors that allow temperatures to exceed the upper forecast range by late afternoon.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Munich Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Munich Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/de/munich/EDDM.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Munich Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Munich Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/de/munich/EDDM.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 16, 2026, 12:56 AM ET
Volume
$233,102End Date
Aug 18, 2026Market Opened
Aug 16, 2026, 12:56 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/de/munich/EDDMResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Munich Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Munich Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/de/munich/EDDM.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent ensemble forecasts from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) and German Weather Service (DWD) cluster Munich’s August 18 maximum near 19–21 °C, supported by strengthening westerly flow, persistent cloud cover, and scattered showers that limit daytime solar heating. Operational models from AccuWeather and the UK Met Office align on a daytime high of 20 °C under mostly cloudy skies, well below the late-August climatological average of 22–23 °C. These consistent atmospheric conditions underpin the market’s 100 % implied probability on 20 °C. A realistic shift would require unexpected clearing and stronger insolation or model errors that allow temperatures to exceed the upper forecast range by late afternoon.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Munich Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Munich Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/de/munich/EDDM.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Munich Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Munich Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/de/munich/EDDM.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$233,102End Date
Aug 18, 2026Market Opened
Aug 16, 2026, 12:56 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/de/munich/EDDMResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
Recent ensemble forecasts from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) and German Weather Service (DWD) cluster Munich’s August 18 maximum near 19–21 °C, supported by strengthening westerly flow, persistent cloud cover, and scattered showers that limit daytime solar heating. Operational models from AccuWeather and the UK Met Office align on a daytime high of 20 °C under mostly cloudy skies, well below the late-August climatological average of 22–23 °C. These consistent atmospheric conditions underpin the market’s 100 % implied probability on 20 °C. A realistic shift would require unexpected clearing and stronger insolation or model errors that allow temperatures to exceed the upper forecast range by late afternoon.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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