India Meteorological Department (IMD) observations from Chaudhary Charan Singh International Airport in Lucknow confirm a maximum temperature of 39.8°C on April 16, 2026, fitting squarely within the 40°C outcome bin used by the market, with departures +1.3°C above normal amid persistent clear skies and dry conditions across Uttar Pradesh. This positioning reflects strong alignment between real-time airport measurements, short-range forecast models predicting peaks around 40°C, and climatological norms for mid-April, where highs typically range 38–42°C under high-pressure dominance. Trader consensus at 100% implied probability underscores minimal uncertainty, as the diurnal heating cycle has peaked without convective activity or wind shifts to drive further increases. Realistic challenges would require an anomalous late-evening surge from unforecasted solar heating or data revisions in IMD's final bulletin, both low-probability given current atmospheric stability.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Lucknow on April 16?
Highest temperature in Lucknow on April 16?
40°C 100.0%
37°C or below <1%
38°C <1%
39°C <1%
$72,140 Vol.
$72,140 Vol.
37°C or below
No
38°C
No
39°C
No
40°C
Yes
41°C
No
42°C
No
43°C
No
44°C
No
45°C
No
46°C
No
47°C or higher
No
40°C 100.0%
37°C or below <1%
38°C <1%
39°C <1%
$72,140 Vol.
$72,140 Vol.
37°C or below
No
38°C
No
39°C
No
40°C
Yes
41°C
No
42°C
No
43°C
No
44°C
No
45°C
No
46°C
No
47°C or higher
No
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Chaudhary Charan Singh Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/in/lucknow/VILK.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Opened: Apr 14, 2026, 6:06 PM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/in/lucknow/VILKResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Chaudhary Charan Singh Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/in/lucknow/VILK.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/in/lucknow/VILKResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
India Meteorological Department (IMD) observations from Chaudhary Charan Singh International Airport in Lucknow confirm a maximum temperature of 39.8°C on April 16, 2026, fitting squarely within the 40°C outcome bin used by the market, with departures +1.3°C above normal amid persistent clear skies and dry conditions across Uttar Pradesh. This positioning reflects strong alignment between real-time airport measurements, short-range forecast models predicting peaks around 40°C, and climatological norms for mid-April, where highs typically range 38–42°C under high-pressure dominance. Trader consensus at 100% implied probability underscores minimal uncertainty, as the diurnal heating cycle has peaked without convective activity or wind shifts to drive further increases. Realistic challenges would require an anomalous late-evening surge from unforecasted solar heating or data revisions in IMD's final bulletin, both low-probability given current atmospheric stability.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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