Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns 100% implied probability to a highest temperature of 39°C in Lucknow on April 15, driven by the India Meteorological Department's (IMD) official bulletin from April 14 forecasting clear skies and a maximum around 39°C, with minimums near 22°C. This aligns with yesterday's observed peak of 38.1°C at Lucknow's Amausi Airport station—near normal for mid-April amid dry northwesterly winds (10-20 km/h) and low humidity (16-55%), limiting convective heating. Model consensus from IMD reflects stable anticyclonic conditions suppressing further intensification. Realistic challenges include a late-afternoon solar heating spike under prolonged clear skies or minor station microclimate variations pushing to 40°C, though current hourly observations (mid-30s°C) and evening cooldown trajectories make this unlikely; final IMD daily report will confirm the observed maximum.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Lucknow on April 15?
Highest temperature in Lucknow on April 15?
39°C 100.0%
37°C or below <1%
38°C <1%
40°C <1%
$93,913 Vol.
$93,913 Vol.
37°C or below
No
38°C
No
39°C
Yes
40°C
No
41°C
No
42°C
No
43°C
No
44°C
No
45°C
No
46°C
No
47°C or higher
No
39°C 100.0%
37°C or below <1%
38°C <1%
40°C <1%
$93,913 Vol.
$93,913 Vol.
37°C or below
No
38°C
No
39°C
Yes
40°C
No
41°C
No
42°C
No
43°C
No
44°C
No
45°C
No
46°C
No
47°C or higher
No
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Chaudhary Charan Singh Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/in/lucknow/VILK.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Opened: Apr 13, 2026, 12:18 AM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/in/lucknow/VILKResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Chaudhary Charan Singh Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/in/lucknow/VILK.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/in/lucknow/VILKResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns 100% implied probability to a highest temperature of 39°C in Lucknow on April 15, driven by the India Meteorological Department's (IMD) official bulletin from April 14 forecasting clear skies and a maximum around 39°C, with minimums near 22°C. This aligns with yesterday's observed peak of 38.1°C at Lucknow's Amausi Airport station—near normal for mid-April amid dry northwesterly winds (10-20 km/h) and low humidity (16-55%), limiting convective heating. Model consensus from IMD reflects stable anticyclonic conditions suppressing further intensification. Realistic challenges include a late-afternoon solar heating spike under prolonged clear skies or minor station microclimate variations pushing to 40°C, though current hourly observations (mid-30s°C) and evening cooldown trajectories make this unlikely; final IMD daily report will confirm the observed maximum.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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