Trader consensus on Polymarket has locked in a near-100% implied probability for a Houston high temperature of 82-83°F on April 14, driven by official observations from the automated surface observing system at William P. Hobby Airport (KHOU), the market's designated resolution source via National Weather Service and Weather Underground records. Preliminary hourly data confirmed peak daytime readings in this range amid light southerly winds, partial cloud cover, and high pressure aloft that capped heating potential despite sunny conditions—aligning precisely with the latest National Weather Service forecast models (e.g., HRRR, RAP) projecting 81-84°F highs 24 hours prior. This fits April climatology, where average highs hover around 78°F with variability from Gulf moisture influences. Realistic challenges are minimal but could include rare post hoc data quality adjustments by NOAA if sensor anomalies are detected, potentially shifting the certified maximum by 1°F; final NWS climatological summary expected within 48 hours.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Houston on April 14?
Highest temperature in Houston on April 14?
82-83°F 100.0%
65°F or below <1%
66-67°F <1%
68-69°F <1%
$70,032 Vol.
$70,032 Vol.
65°F or below
No
66-67°F
No
68-69°F
No
70-71°F
No
72-73°F
No
74-75°F
No
76-77°F
No
78-79°F
No
80-81°F
No
82-83°F
Yes
84°F or higher
No
82-83°F 100.0%
65°F or below <1%
66-67°F <1%
68-69°F <1%
$70,032 Vol.
$70,032 Vol.
65°F or below
No
66-67°F
No
68-69°F
No
70-71°F
No
72-73°F
No
74-75°F
No
76-77°F
No
78-79°F
No
80-81°F
No
82-83°F
Yes
84°F or higher
No
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the William P. Hobby Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/houston/KHOU.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Opened: Apr 12, 2026, 12:20 AM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/houston/KHOUResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the William P. Hobby Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/houston/KHOU.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/houston/KHOUResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
Trader consensus on Polymarket has locked in a near-100% implied probability for a Houston high temperature of 82-83°F on April 14, driven by official observations from the automated surface observing system at William P. Hobby Airport (KHOU), the market's designated resolution source via National Weather Service and Weather Underground records. Preliminary hourly data confirmed peak daytime readings in this range amid light southerly winds, partial cloud cover, and high pressure aloft that capped heating potential despite sunny conditions—aligning precisely with the latest National Weather Service forecast models (e.g., HRRR, RAP) projecting 81-84°F highs 24 hours prior. This fits April climatology, where average highs hover around 78°F with variability from Gulf moisture influences. Realistic challenges are minimal but could include rare post hoc data quality adjustments by NOAA if sensor anomalies are detected, potentially shifting the certified maximum by 1°F; final NWS climatological summary expected within 48 hours.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions