Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 99.9% implied probability to a highest temperature of 74-75°F in Dallas on April 18, driven by confirmed observations from the National Weather Service's Automated Surface Observing System (ASOS) at Dallas Love Field station, the market's official resolution source. Preliminary daily summaries indicate the maximum reached this narrow bin amid cooler-than-normal conditions from a cold front that brought northerly winds, cloud cover, and highs well below the mid-April climatological average of 76°F at Dallas-Fort Worth. This aligns with ensemble model guidance from NOAA forecasting subdued warming potential. Realistic challenges are minimal post-event but could arise from rare final quality control revisions by NWS climatologists, such as sensor data adjustments, ahead of the official daily climate report expected within 24-48 hours.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Dallas on April 18?
Highest temperature in Dallas on April 18?
74-75°F 99.9%
76-77°F <1%
78-79°F <1%
80-81°F <1%
$229,806 Vol.
$229,806 Vol.
74-75°F
100%
76-77°F
<1%
78-79°F
<1%
80-81°F
<1%
82-83°F
<1%
84-85°F
<1%
86°F or higher
<1%
74-75°F 99.9%
76-77°F <1%
78-79°F <1%
80-81°F <1%
$229,806 Vol.
$229,806 Vol.
74-75°F
100%
76-77°F
<1%
78-79°F
<1%
80-81°F
<1%
82-83°F
<1%
84-85°F
<1%
86°F or higher
<1%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Dallas Love Field Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/dallas/KDAL.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Opened: Apr 16, 2026, 1:07 AM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/dallas/KDALResolver
0x69c47De9D...The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Dallas Love Field Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/dallas/KDAL.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/dallas/KDALResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 99.9% implied probability to a highest temperature of 74-75°F in Dallas on April 18, driven by confirmed observations from the National Weather Service's Automated Surface Observing System (ASOS) at Dallas Love Field station, the market's official resolution source. Preliminary daily summaries indicate the maximum reached this narrow bin amid cooler-than-normal conditions from a cold front that brought northerly winds, cloud cover, and highs well below the mid-April climatological average of 76°F at Dallas-Fort Worth. This aligns with ensemble model guidance from NOAA forecasting subdued warming potential. Realistic challenges are minimal post-event but could arise from rare final quality control revisions by NWS climatologists, such as sensor data adjustments, ahead of the official daily climate report expected within 24-48 hours.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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