Trader consensus has locked in at 100% implied probability for a highest temperature of 23°C in Cape Town on April 14, backed by official observational data from the South African Weather Service (SAWS) stations, including Cape Town International Airport and urban monitoring sites, which recorded peak readings of exactly 23°C amid partly cloudy skies and moderate southerly winds. This aligns with autumnal cooling patterns in Cape Town's Mediterranean climate, where April daily maxima average 23–25°C, following pre-event forecast model consensus from SAWS and ECMWF ensembles predicting subdued highs due to a strengthening high-pressure ridge. Scenarios challenging this near-certainty—such as a rare post-hoc data revision from sensor calibration issues or an unverified outlier reading—remain highly improbable given uniform agreement across verified records, with no updates expected.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Cape Town on April 14?
Highest temperature in Cape Town on April 14?
23°C 100.0%
18°C or below <1%
19°C <1%
20°C <1%
$24,488 Vol.
$24,488 Vol.
18°C or below
No
19°C
No
20°C
No
21°C
No
22°C
No
23°C
Yes
24°C
No
25°C
No
26°C
No
27°C
No
28°C or higher
No
23°C 100.0%
18°C or below <1%
19°C <1%
20°C <1%
$24,488 Vol.
$24,488 Vol.
18°C or below
No
19°C
No
20°C
No
21°C
No
22°C
No
23°C
Yes
24°C
No
25°C
No
26°C
No
27°C
No
28°C or higher
No
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Cape Town International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/za/matroosfontein/FACT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Opened: Apr 12, 2026, 12:20 AM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/za/matroosfontein/FACTResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Cape Town International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/za/matroosfontein/FACT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/za/matroosfontein/FACTResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
Trader consensus has locked in at 100% implied probability for a highest temperature of 23°C in Cape Town on April 14, backed by official observational data from the South African Weather Service (SAWS) stations, including Cape Town International Airport and urban monitoring sites, which recorded peak readings of exactly 23°C amid partly cloudy skies and moderate southerly winds. This aligns with autumnal cooling patterns in Cape Town's Mediterranean climate, where April daily maxima average 23–25°C, following pre-event forecast model consensus from SAWS and ECMWF ensembles predicting subdued highs due to a strengthening high-pressure ridge. Scenarios challenging this near-certainty—such as a rare post-hoc data revision from sensor calibration issues or an unverified outlier reading—remain highly improbable given uniform agreement across verified records, with no updates expected.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated


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