Spain commands 77.5% implied probability as trader consensus in the FIFA World Cup 2026 Group H winner market, driven by their Euro 2024 triumph, top-two FIFA ranking, and depth featuring Lamine Yamal, Pedri, and emerging recoveries like Mikel Merino despite striker Samu Aghehowa's February ACL sidelining him for the tournament. Uruguay trails at 18.5% on Marcelo Bielsa's high-intensity style, Darwin Nunez's threat, and solid March friendlies drawing England and Algeria, plus Luis Suárez hinting at a 39-year-old return. Saudi Arabia (3.6%) and debutants Cape Verde (0.4%), ranked 61st and 69th, lag due to weaker qualifiers, limited experience, and tougher fixtures against the group's powerhouses.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedSpain 78%
Uruguay 16%
Saudi Arabia 4.0%
Cape Verde <1%
$167,276 Vol.
$167,276 Vol.
Spain
78%
Uruguay
16%
Saudi Arabia
4%
Cape Verde
<1%
Spain 78%
Uruguay 16%
Saudi Arabia 4.0%
Cape Verde <1%
$167,276 Vol.
$167,276 Vol.
Spain
78%
Uruguay
16%
Saudi Arabia
4%
Cape Verde
<1%
If multiple teams tie as group winners, this market will resolve according to the official tiebreak procedure of the 2026 FIFA World Cup.
If the World Cup group stage is cancelled, postponed after September 30, 2026, or there is otherwise no winner declared for this group within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from FIFA (https://www.fifa.com/); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Market Opened: Dec 5, 2025, 7:01 PM ET
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...If multiple teams tie as group winners, this market will resolve according to the official tiebreak procedure of the 2026 FIFA World Cup.
If the World Cup group stage is cancelled, postponed after September 30, 2026, or there is otherwise no winner declared for this group within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from FIFA (https://www.fifa.com/); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...Spain commands 77.5% implied probability as trader consensus in the FIFA World Cup 2026 Group H winner market, driven by their Euro 2024 triumph, top-two FIFA ranking, and depth featuring Lamine Yamal, Pedri, and emerging recoveries like Mikel Merino despite striker Samu Aghehowa's February ACL sidelining him for the tournament. Uruguay trails at 18.5% on Marcelo Bielsa's high-intensity style, Darwin Nunez's threat, and solid March friendlies drawing England and Algeria, plus Luis Suárez hinting at a 39-year-old return. Saudi Arabia (3.6%) and debutants Cape Verde (0.4%), ranked 61st and 69th, lag due to weaker qualifiers, limited experience, and tougher fixtures against the group's powerhouses.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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