Name: Chess: Will Magnus Carlsen lose any regular game in the 2022 Tata Steel Masters?
Start: 2022-01-12T00:00:00Z
End: 2022-01-30T00:00:00Z

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The 84th edition of the Tata Steel Chess Tournament will take place from the 14th till the 30th of January 2022. 
 The event itself will take place in the venue ‘De Moriaan, located in Wijk aan Zee (NL). 

Fourteen players will play against each other in 13 rounds in a round-robin tournament. 

Only the 13 round-robin games will be considered for this market and Tie-Breaks will not be considered for this market.

If Magnus Carlsen loses any game this market will resolve “Yes.”
If Magnus Carlsen draws and/or wins every game this market will resolve “No”.

Chess: Will Magnus Carlsen lose any regular game in the 2022 Tata Steel Masters?

The 2025 FIDE World Rapid & Blitz Championships are scheduled for December 26-30, 2025 in Doha, Qatar.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Magnus Carlsen wins both the FIDE World Rapid Open Championship and the FIDE World Blitz Open Championship at this event. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

If Carlsen is eliminated from contention to win either the World Rapid Open Championship or the World Blitz Open Championship, this market will resolve immediately to “No”.

If 2025 FIDE World Rapid & Blitz Championships are cancelled, postponed after March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or there is otherwise no winner declared within this timeframe, this market will resolve to “No”.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the World Rapid and Blitz Championships tournament organizers (https://worldrapidandblitz2025.fide.com/); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Magnus Carlsen wins both World Rapid & Blitz Championships?

This market will resolve to the player who wins the 2025–2026 Speed Chess Championship, currently scheduled for October 13, 2025, to February 9, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

If the listed player is eliminated from the championship under the tournament's official rules, this market will resolve to “No.”

The resolution source for this market will be official information from Chess.com, though a consensus of credible reporting may also be used in case of discrepancies.

If the winner is not announced by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other.”

Will Magnus Carlsen win the 2025–2026 Speed Chess Championship?

This polymarket will resolve to "Yes" if Magnus Carlsen publicly apologizes to Hans Niemann by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No".

To qualify for a "Yes" resolution:

Magnus Carlsen must publicly apologize, mention Hans Niemann by name, and clearly express regret for the backlash or consequences Niemann faced related to the 2022 cheating controversy.

The apology must be made before December 31, 2025 at 11:59 PM ET and be publicly accessible.

Statements that are vague, do not name Niemann, or express only general regret will not qualify as "Yes" for this market. 

The primary resolution source will be official statements from Magnus Carlsen or his representatives. A consensus of credible reporting from reputable chess or news outlets may also be used.

Will Magnus Carlsen apologize to Hans Niemann in 2025?

The 2025 Tech Mahindra Global Chess League is scheduled for December 14-24, 2025 in Mumbai, India.

This market will resolve according to the listed team that wins the 2025 Tech Mahindra Global Chess League.

If a listed team is eliminated from this competition, the relevant market will resolve immediately to “No”.

If multiple teams tie as winners of the Tech Mahindra Global Chess League, this market will resolve according to the official tiebreak procedure used by the Tech Mahindra Global Chess League.

If this event is cancelled, postponed after March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or there is otherwise no winner declared within this timeframe, this market will resolve to “Other”.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Tech Mahindra Global Chess League (https://globalchessleague.com/); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Will Alpine SG Pipers win the 2025 Tech Mahindra Global Chess League?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed player officially qualifies for the 2026 FIDE World Chess Championship Candidates Tournament. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No".

If the 2026 FIDE World Chess Championship Candidates Tournament is cancelled or rescheduled past January 1, 2027, this market will resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the FIDE Candidates Tournament organizers; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Will Hikaru Nakamura qualify for the 2026 World Chess Championship Candidates Tournament?

This polymarket will resolve according to the player who wins the 2026 Masters Tournament.

If this player is eliminated from contention for The Masters based on the official rules of the tournament, the relevant market will resolve to "No".

In the event of a tie, this market will resolve according to the official winner as determined by The Masters official tournament rules.

If no winner is announced by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other".

The primary resolution sources will be the official results published by the PGA TOUR website and The Masters website. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Will Tom Kim win the 2026 Masters tournament?

The 2025 FIDE World Blitz Championship chess tournament is scheduled for December 29-30, 2025 in Doha, Qatar.

This market will resolve to the listed player who wins the 2025 FIDE World Blitz Open Championship.

If a listed player is eliminated from this tournament, the relevant market will resolve immediately to “No”.

If this event is cancelled, postponed after March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or there is otherwise no winner declared within this timeframe, this market will resolve to “Other”.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the World Rapid and Blitz Championships tournament organizers (https://worldrapidandblitz2025.fide.com/); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Will Magnus Carlsen win the 2025 FIDE World Blitz Open Championship?

The 2025 FIDE World Rapid Championship chess tournament is scheduled for December 26-28, 2025 in Doha, Qatar.

This market will resolve to the listed player who wins the 2025 FIDE World Rapid Open Championship.

If a listed player is eliminated from this tournament, the relevant market will resolve immediately to “No”.

If this event is cancelled, postponed after March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or there is otherwise no winner declared within this timeframe, this market will resolve to “Other”.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the World Rapid and Blitz Championships tournament organizers (https://worldrapidandblitz2025.fide.com/); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Will Magnus Carlsen win the 2025 FIDE World Rapid Open Championship?

The ICC T20 Men’s World Cup is scheduled to begin on February 7, 2026. Four of the twenty competing teams will advance through the group stage and Super 8 stage to reach the semifinals.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed national team advances to the semifinals of the 2026 ICC T20 Men’s World Cup. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

If at any point it becomes impossible for the listed team to reach the semifinals of the 2026 ICC T20 Men’s World Cup based on the rules of the tournament (e.g., they are eliminated in the group stage), this market will resolve immediately to “No”.

If the 2026 ICC T20 Men’s World Cup is permanently canceled or the tournament semifinalists are not definitively known by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM, this market will resolve to “No”.

The primary resolution source will be the ICC (https://www.icc-cricket.com/tournaments/mens-t20-world-cup-2026); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Will Australia reach the semifinals of the 2026 ICC Men’s T20 World Cup?

This market will resolve to “No” if any of the following conditions are met between September 19, 2025, 6 PM ET, and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET:

- Artificial Intelligence is named TIME's Person of 2025
- GPT-5 scores above 40% on Humanity’s Last Exam
- AI wins IMO gold medal
- AI model scores ≥ 90% on FrontierMath Benchmark
- AI scores ≥85% on ARC-AGI-2

Otherwise, this market will resolve to “Yes”.

If resolution-relevant information regarding the events mentioned above is not available by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, this market will remain open until January 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. If by that date there is still no clear information indicating that one of the listed events has occurred,  this market will resolve to “Yes”.

The full rules for this market can be found here:
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Nothing Ever Happens: AI Edition

This market will resolve according to the team that wins the 2025-2026 SEC Men's Basketball Regular Season Championship.

If two or more teams tie for the regular season championship, this market will resolve according to the team which receives a higher seed for the 2026 SEC Men's Basketball conference tournament.

If at any point it becomes impossible for a team to win the 2025-2026 SEC Men's Basketball Regular Season Championship based on the rules of the NCAA or SEC (e.g., they are mathematically eliminated), this market will immediately resolve to "No" for that team.

If for any reason no 2025-2026 SEC Men's Basketball regular season champion is declared by April 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

Official resolution will be based on the SEC’s official Men's Basketball results, as published on SECSports.com or NCAA.com, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Will Florida win the 2025-2026 SEC Men's Basketball regular season championship?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Jayson Tatum plays in any regular season or postseason NBA game during the 2025-2026 NBA season. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

"Playing" is defined as Jayson Tatum playing any amount of time in a game. Merely being on the active roster will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution.

The resolution source for this market will be official information from the NBA (https://www.nba.com/).

Will Jayson Tatum play a game this season?

This market will resolve according to the team that wins the 2025-2026 Big 10 Men's Basketball Regular Season Championship.

If two or more teams tie for the regular season championship, this market will resolve according to the team which receives a higher seed for the 2026 Big 10 Men's Basketball conference tournament.

If at any point it becomes impossible for a team to win the 2025-2026 Big 10 Men's Basketball Regular Season Championship based on the rules of the Big 10 or NCAA (e.g., they are mathematically eliminated), the corresponding market will immediately resolve to "No" for that team.

If for any reason no 2025-2026 Big 10 Men's Basketball regular season champion is declared by April 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

Official resolution will be based on the Big 10's official Men's Basketball results, as published on bigten.org or NCAA.com, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Will Michigan win the 2025-2026 Big 10 Men's Basketball regular season championship?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed team advances to the Round of 16 of the 2025–26 UEFA Champions League. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

If at any point it becomes impossible for the listed club to advance to the Round of 16 (e.g. they are mathematically eliminated from finishing in the top 24 of the league phase), the associated market will resolve to "No".

If the 2025–26 UEFA Champions League league phase is canceled or not completed by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source will be official information from UEFA. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Will Arsenal advance to the round of 16?

This polymarket will resolve to the team that wins the 2025 Rolex Paris Masters Men’s Doubles Tournament.

The market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed pair wins the 2025 Rolex Paris Masters Men’s Doubles Tournament. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

If at any point it becomes impossible for this pair to win the tournament per the official rules of the 2025 Rolex Paris Masters, this market will resolve to “No”.

The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Will Harri Heliovaara and Henry Patten win the 2025 Rolex Paris Masters Men’s Doubles Tournament

The 2026 FIFA World Cup is a major soccer tournament held from June 11 to July 19, 2026, with games at multiple stadiums across North America. 

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Lionel Messi takes the field as a player in at least one official match for Argentina during the 2026 FIFA World Cup at the group stage or later. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Any on-field appearance as a player will qualify, in regulation, stoppage time, extra time, for a shootout, etc.

The primary resolution source for this market will be information from FIFA (https://www.fifa.com/), however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Will Lionel Messi play in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

This market will resolve according to the national team that wins the 2026 ICC T20 Men’s World Cup.

If at any point it becomes impossible for the listed team to win the 2026 ICC T20 Men’s World Cup based on the rules of the tournament (e.g., they are eliminated in the knockout stage), this market will resolve immediately to “No”.

If the 2026 ICC T20 Men’s World Cup is permanently canceled or has not been completed by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM, this market will resolve to “Other”.

The primary resolution source will be the ICC (https://www.icc-cricket.com/tournaments/mens-t20-world-cup-2026); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Will India win the 2026 ICC Men’s T20 World Cup?

This market will resolve according to the national team that finishes in second place (loses in the final) in the 2026 ICC T20 Men’s World Cup.

If at any point it becomes impossible for the listed team to finish in second place in the 2026 ICC T20 Men’s World Cup based on the rules of the tournament (e.g., they are eliminated in the group stage), this market will resolve immediately to “No”.

If the 2026 ICC T20 Men’s World Cup is permanently canceled or has not been completed by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM, this market will resolve to “Other”.

The primary resolution source will be the ICC (https://www.icc-cricket.com/tournaments/mens-t20-world-cup-2026); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Will India finish second in the 2026 ICC Men’s T20 World Cup?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Clay Mathematics Institute (CMI) officially announces that a Millennium Prize has been awarded for a solution to any of the six remaining Millennium Prize Problems, or otherwise that any one of these problems has been solved by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source will be official announcements from the Clay Mathematics Institute (https://www.claymath.org/millennium-problems/).

Will a Millennium Prize Problem be solved before the end of 2025?

This market will resolve according to the national team that wins the CAF Africa Cup of Nations Morocco 2025.

If at any point it becomes impossible for the listed team to win the CAF Africa Cup of Nations Morocco 2025 based on the rules of the tournament (e.g., they are eliminated in the knockout stage), this market will resolve immediately to “No”.

If the CAF Africa Cup of Nations Morocco 2025 is permanently canceled or has not been completed by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM, this market will resolve to “Other”.

The primary resolution source will be ESPN (https://www.espn.com/soccer/league/_/name/caf.nations); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Will Morocco win the CAF Africa Cup of Nations Morocco 2025?

This market will resolve according to the listed team/country that wins the silver medal for Men’s Ice Hockey at the 2026 Milano Cortina Winter Olympics.

If it becomes impossible for a listed team to win the 2026 Men’s Ice Hockey Olympic silver medal according to the rules of the competition (i.e., the team is eliminated), the corresponding market will immediately resolve to “No.”

If the 2026 Milano Cortina Winter Olympics are cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, or there is otherwise no silver medal for Men’s Ice Hockey awarded during this timeframe, this market will resolve to “Other”.

The resolution source will be official information from the International Olympic Committee (https://www.olympics.com/).

Will Canada win the Men's Ice Hockey silver medal at the 2026 Winter Olympics?

This market will resolve according to the bracket containing the number of the contestant who is announced as the winner of Beast Games.

The winner is defined as the contestant who is announced as the winner. If multiple players are announced as the winner, this market will resolve according to the contestant who wins the most prize money in the final episode. If multiple players tie for most prize money this money will resolve according to the winning contestant whose listed number is highest. 

If no winner is announced by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. 

The primary resolution source will be the final episode of the Beast Games, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Will a contestant numbered 151 - 175 win Beast Games: Season 2?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump is interviewed by Tucker Carlson between November 17, 2025 and February 28, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

An interview is defined as a scheduled, recorded conversation where Donald Trump answers questions posed by Tucker Carlson. Press conferences or media briefings held by the White House with Carlson in attendance will not count.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a credible consensus of reporting that Donald Trump has recorded an interview with Tucker Carlson before February 28, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, even if that interview is not yet released.

The resolution source for this market will be publicly available video footage of the interview; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Will Tucker Carlson interview Trump by February 28?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if s1mple, the professional counter-strike player, announces his retirement from professional competitive esports by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

An announcement from s1mple that he is retiring will qualify even if his official retirement has not yet occurred.

Breaks, periods of inactivity, transitions to another game, or transitions to streaming will not count unless s1mple explicitly announces his retirement from professional competitive esports. 

The resolution source will be official announcements from s1mple, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Will s1mple retire by June 30?

Arman Tsarukyan is scheduled to face Shara “Bullet” Magomedov in a Hype Fighting Championship grappling match in Armenia on December 30, 2025.

This market will resolve to “Tsarukyan” if Arman Tsarukyan is officially declared the winner against Shara Magomedov in this match.

This market will resolve to “Magomedov” if Shara Magomedov is officially declared the winner against Arman Tsarukyan in this match.

If this match ends in a draw, is canceled, is postponed after January 31, 2026, or there is otherwise no winner declared within this timeframe, this market will resolve to “Draw/Not Completed”.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the match organizers; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Will Arman Tsarukyan win against Shara Magomedov?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if, by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, sports event contracts listed by a CFTC-regulated Designated Contract Market (DCM), whether accessed directly or through a Futures Commission Merchant (FCM), are legally prohibited or blocked for users in at least one U.S. state or nationwide. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."

A qualifying ban must have gone into effect during the market window and may occur through any of the following:

CFTC Action: A final order, rule, or directive under Regulation 40.11 or other CFTC authority that results in the removal or suspension of sports event contracts, either nationally or within one or more states.

Court Order or Judgment: A temporary restraining order, preliminary injunction, permanent injunction, or final judgment issued by a U.S. federal or state court that has the effect of suspending or terminating user access to sports event contracts in one or more states or nationwide. This includes situations where a court denies an exchange’s claim of federal preemption and thereby allows a state to enforce its gambling laws against sports event contracts while adjudication is pending, leading to blocked access in that state.

State Enforcement Upheld by Courts: If a state action (such as a cease-and-desist order or regulatory enforcement) is challenged on preemption grounds and the court declines to enjoin the state, resulting in blocked access to sports event contracts in that state, this will qualify.

To resolve “Yes,” the block or ban must actually take effect (users lose access or ability to trade/maintain positions). Mere announcements, proposed rules, or pending litigation without effect do not qualify.

Voluntary pauses or withdrawals by a DCM or FCM, absent legal compulsion, do not qualify.

If a qualifying block takes effect and is implemented the market will still resolve “Yes” regardless if it is later stayed, reversed, or vacated. 

Actions ordered before the deadline but which take effect only after, will not qulaify. 

The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. 

Will sports prediction markets be banned in any U.S. state in 2025?

This market will resolve according to the team that wins the 2025-2026 ACC Men's Basketball Regular Season Championship.

If two or more teams tie for the regular season championship, this market will resolve according to the team which receives a higher seed for the 2026 ACC Men's Basketball conference tournament.

If at any point it becomes impossible for a team to win the 2025-2026 ACC Men's Basketball Regular Season Championship based on the rules of the ACC or NCAA (e.g., they are mathematically eliminated), the corresponding market will immediately resolve to "No" for that team.

If for any reason no 2025-2026 ACC Men's Basketball regular season champion is declared by April 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

Official resolution will be based on the ACC’s official Men's Basketball results, as published on theacc.com or NCAA.com, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Will Miami win the 2025-2026 ACC Men’s Basketball regular season championship?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if all Italy, Bolivia, and DR Congo qualify for the 2026 FIFA World Cup.

If at any point it becomes impossible for one of these teams to qualify for the FIFA World Cup based on the rules of FIFA (e.g., they cannot reach the required number of points to advance from their group or qualify for playoffs), this market will resolve immediately to “No”.

If the 2026 FIFA World Cup is permanently canceled or the qualifying stage has not been completed by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM, this market will resolve to “No”.

The resolution source for this market will be FIFA.  (https://www.fifa.com/en/tournaments/mens/worldcup).

Chess: Will Magnus Carlsen lose any regular game in the 2022 Tata Steel Masters?

Market Context

Chess: Will Magnus Carlsen lose any regular game in the 2022 Tata Steel Masters?

Rules

Chess: Will Magnus Carlsen lose any regular game in the 2022 Tata Steel Masters?

Market Context

Chess: Will Magnus Carlsen lose any regular game in the 2022 Tata Steel Masters?

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