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Another US strike on Venezuela on...?

$1,505,045 Vol.

OUTCOME
% CHANCE

Rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Venezuelan soil on the listed date ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including FPV and ATGM strikes as well as cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by any United States operatives, including military forces, intelligence agencies, or other U.S. government operatives, that physically impact ground territory within Venezuela.

A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory (including rivers, lakes, ports, but excluding territorial sea) of Venezuela counts.

Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on Venezuelan territory or cause damage.

Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, ground incursions, naval shelling, or cyberattacks will not qualify.

The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.

This market will remain open until the end of the second day after the resolution time. If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by that time, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.
Volume
$1,505,045
End Date
Jan 12, 2026
Created At
Jan 3, 2026, 3:38 PM UTC

Outcome proposed: No

No dispute

Final outcome: No

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$1,505,045 Vol.

Market icon

Another US strike on Venezuela on...?

OUTCOME
% CHANCE

January 5

$314,550 Vol.

<1%

January 6

$187,316 Vol.

<1%

January 7

$119,930 Vol.

<1%

January 8

$45,552 Vol.

1%

January 9

$47,748 Vol.

1%

January 10

$42,028 Vol.

1%

January 11

$34,272 Vol.

1%

January 12

$107,427 Vol.

1%

About

Volume
$1,505,045
End Date
Jan 12, 2026
Created At
Jan 3, 2026, 3:38 PM UTC
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Beware of external links.