Name: Airdrops by September 30?
Start: 2024-06-26T18:46:13.19022Z
End: 2024-09-30T12:00:00Z

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This is a market on the likelihood of cryptocurrency airdrops occurring by September 30.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Berachain launches a token and announces they have performed an airdrop between September 8 and September 30, 2024, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For the purposes of this market "locked" tokens or non-swappable tokens will not suffice to resolve this market to "Yes".

The primary resolution source for this market is on-chain information and official information from the Berachain team, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Berachain

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Linea launches a token and announces they have performed an airdrop between September 8 and September 30, 2024, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For the purposes of this market "locked" tokens or non-swappable tokens will not suffice to resolve this market to "Yes".

The primary resolution source for this market is on-chain information and official information from the Linea team, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Linea

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Scroll launches a token and announces they have performed an airdrop between September 8 and September 30, 2024, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For the purposes of this market "locked" tokens or non-swappable tokens will not suffice to resolve this market to "Yes".

The primary resolution source for this market is on-chain information and official information from the Scroll team, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Scroll

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Farcaster launches a token and announces they have performed an airdrop between September 8 and September 30, 2024, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For the purposes of this market "locked" tokens or non-swappable tokens will not suffice to resolve this market to "Yes".

The primary resolution source for this market is on-chain information and official information from the Farcaster team, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Farcaster

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Rainbow launches a token and announces they have performed an airdrop between June 25 and September 30, 2024, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For the purposes of this market "locked" tokens or non-swappable tokens will not suffice to resolve this market to "Yes".

The primary resolution source for this market is on-chain information and official information from the Rainbow team, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Rainbow

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Puffer launches a token and announces they have performed an airdrop between June 25 and September 30, 2024, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For the purposes of this market "locked" tokens or non-swappable tokens will not suffice to resolve this market to "Yes".

The primary resolution source for this market is on-chain information and official information from the Puffer team, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Puffer

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Astaria launches a token and announces they have performed an airdrop between June 25 and September 30, 2024, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For the purposes of this market "locked" tokens or non-swappable tokens will not suffice to resolve this market to "Yes".

The primary resolution source for this market is on-chain information and official information from the Astaria team, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Astaria

This market will resolve to "Yes" if PartyDAO launches a token and announces they have performed an airdrop between June 25 and September 30, 2024, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For the purposes of this market "locked" tokens or non-swappable tokens will not suffice to resolve this market to "Yes".

The primary resolution source for this market is on-chain information and official information from the PartyDAO team, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

PartyDAO

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Aleo launches a token and announces they have performed an airdrop between June 25 and September 30, 2024, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For the purposes of this market "locked" tokens or non-swappable tokens will not suffice to resolve this market to "Yes".

The primary resolution source for this market is on-chain information and official information from the Aleo team, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Aleo

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Jumper launches a token and announces they have performed an airdrop between June 25 and September 30, 2024, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For the purposes of this market "locked" tokens or non-swappable tokens will not suffice to resolve this market to "Yes".

The primary resolution source for this market is on-chain information and official information from the Jumper team, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Jumper

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Pudgy Penguins launches a token and announces they have performed an airdrop between June 25 and September 30, 2024, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For the purposes of this market "locked" tokens or non-swappable tokens will not suffice to resolve this market to "Yes".

The primary resolution source for this market is on-chain information and official information from the Pudgy Penguins team, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Pudgy Penguins

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Zircuit launches a token and announces they have performed an airdrop between June 25 and September 30, 2024, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For the purposes of this market "locked" tokens or non-swappable tokens will not suffice to resolve this market to "Yes".

The primary resolution source for this market is on-chain information and official information from the Zircuit team, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Zircuit

This market will resolve to "Yes" if pump.fun launches a token and announces they have performed an airdrop between June 25 and September 30, 2024, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For the purposes of this market "locked" tokens or non-swappable tokens will not suffice to resolve this market to "Yes".

The primary resolution source for this market is on-chain information and official information from the pump.fun team, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

pump.fun

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Rabby launches a token and announces they have performed an airdrop between June 25 and September 30, 2024, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For the purposes of this market "locked" tokens or non-swappable tokens will not suffice to resolve this market to "Yes".

The primary resolution source for this market is on-chain information and official information from the Rabby team, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Rabby

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Swell launches a token and announces they have performed an airdrop between June 24 and September 30, 2024, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For the purposes of this market "locked" tokens or non-swappable tokens will not suffice to resolve this market to "Yes".

The primary resolution source for this market is on-chain information and official information from the Swell team, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Swell

This market will resolve to "Yes" if tokens from the Eigenlayer stakedrop are unlocked and live for trading/swapping by September 30, 2024, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source for this market is on-chain information and official information from the Eigenlayer team, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Eigenlayer

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Base launches a token and announces they have performed an airdrop between June 25 and September 30, 2024, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For the purposes of this market "locked" tokens or non-swappable tokens will not suffice to resolve this market to "Yes".

The primary resolution source for this market is on-chain information and official information from the Base team, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Base

This market will resolve to "Yes" if MetaMask launches a token and announces they have performed an airdrop between June 25 and September 30, 2024, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For the purposes of this market "locked" tokens or non-swappable tokens will not suffice to resolve this market to "Yes".

The primary resolution source for this market is on-chain information and official information from the MetaMask team, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

MetaMask

Airdrops

Airdrops by September 30?

This is a market on the likelihood and outcomes of cryptocurrency airdrops occurring in 2024.

Airdrops in 2024

Airdrops by June 30?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the named entity launches a token and announces they have performed an airdrop between April 1, 12:00 AM and June 30, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For the purposes of this market "locked" tokens or non-swappable tokens will not suffice to resolve this market to "Yes".

The primary resolution source for this market is on-chain information and official information from the named entity's team, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Airdrops in Q2 2025

This is a market on the likelihood and specifics of airdrop events occurring in the first quarter of 2025.

Airdrops in Q1 2025

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the named entity launches a token and announces they have performed an airdrop between July 1, 12:00 AM and August 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For the purposes of this market "locked" tokens or non-swappable tokens will not suffice to resolve this market to "Yes".

The primary resolution source for this market is on-chain information and official information from the named entity's team, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.


Airdrops in Q3 2025

This market will resolve to “No” if any of the following conditions are met between September 25, 2025, and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET:

- Base Airdrop occurs
- Metamask Airdrop occurs
- OpenSea Airdrop occurs
- Pump.fun Airdrop occurs

Otherwise, this market will resolve to “Yes”.

The full rules for this market can be found here: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/airdrop.png

Nothing Ever Happens: Airdrops Edition

This market will resolve to “Yes” immediately if all Pyth 1-minute candles for USR-USD for any 24-hour period are below 98 cents, for candles between 27 Oct ’25 15:00 and 31 Dec ’25 23:59 ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”

Below 98 cents means all candles in the period have a final “High” price below 0.98000 (i.e., 0.97999 or lower). A 24-hour period of USR below 98 cents that starts on the last day in 2025 will count.

The resolution source for this market is TradingView, specifically the USR-USD “High” prices currently available at https://tradingview.com/chart/?symbol=PYTH%3AUSRUSD with “1m” and “Candles” selected on the top bar. To see the “High” prices, mouse over particular candles and look at the value after “H” at the top of the chart.

Please note that this market is about the price according to Pyth USR-USD. If Pyth stops having the necessary USR information to resolve this market, a consensus of credible sources for whether USR was below 98 cents for 24 hours or more may be used to resolve this market.

USR depeg by December 31?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Ligher launches a token and performs an airdrop by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For the purposes of this market "locked" tokens or non-swappable tokens will not suffice to resolve this market to "Yes". Airdrops of NFTs will not qualify.

The primary resolution source for this market is on-chain information and official information from Lighter, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Will lighter perform an airdrop by December 31? 

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Pump.fun launches a token and performs an airdrop by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For the purposes of this market "locked" tokens or non-swappable tokens will not suffice to resolve this market to "Yes". Airdrops of NFTs will not qualify.

The primary resolution source for this market is on-chain information and official information from Pump.fun, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Will Pump.fun perform an airdrop by March 31? 

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Hyperliquid performs a second airdrop by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For the purposes of this market "locked" tokens or non-swappable tokens will not suffice to resolve this market to "Yes". Airdrops of NFTs will not qualify.

The primary resolution source for this market is on-chain information and official information from Hyperliquid, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Will Hyperliquid perform an airdrop by December 31, 2026? 

This market will resolve to “Yes” if all of the following conditions are met by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET:

- Grok has a native macOS desktop application publicly available for download
- OpenAI publicly releases a standalone web browser
- Apple releases a new AirTag product
- Google's Gemini 3.0 model is made available to the general public
- Grokipedia is made available to the general public

Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

This market will remain open until it is confirmed that at least one of the above conditions has not been met, or until all of the above conditions have been met.

Qualifying releases during this market's timeframe will count, regardless of any subsequent reversal, rollback, or withdrawal of access.

The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Tech.pdf 

Tech Release Parlay

This market will resolve to “Yes” if all of the following conditions are met by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET:

- Monad launches a token
- MetaMask launches a token
- Lighter launches a token
- Opensea launches a token
- Meteora launches a token

This market will resolve to “No” if any of the above-specified projects do not launch a token during this market’s above-specified time frame.

For a qualifying launch, the token must be actively and publicly transferable and tradable. Announcements alone do not qualify.

The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the respective projects; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Token Launch Party Parlay

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Axiom officially launches a token by 11:59 PM ET on the date specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The token must be actively and publicly transferable and tradable. Announcements alone do not qualify

The primary resolution source for this market will be information from Axiom, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.


Will Axiom launch a token by December 31, 2026?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if MegaETH launches a token and performs an airdrop by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For the purposes of this market "locked" tokens or non-swappable tokens will not suffice to resolve this market to "Yes". Airdrops of NFTs will not qualify.

The primary resolution source for this market is on-chain information and official information from MegaETH, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Will MegaETH perform an airdrop by June 30? 

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Base officially launches a token by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The token must be actively and publicly transferable and tradable. Announcements alone do not qualify

The primary resolution source for this market will be information from Base, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.


Will Base launch a token by December 31, 2026?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the crypto token Hyperliquid ($HYPE) is listed for spot purchase on Coinbase by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source for this market will be Coinbase, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Hyperliquid listed on Coinbase in 2025?

This market will resolve to “No” if any of the following conditions are met between September 19, 2025, 6 PM ET, and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET:

- Artificial Intelligence is named TIME's Person of 2025
- GPT-5 scores above 40% on Humanity’s Last Exam
- AI wins IMO gold medal
- AI model scores ≥ 90% on FrontierMath Benchmark
- AI scores ≥85% on ARC-AGI-2

Otherwise, this market will resolve to “Yes”.

If resolution-relevant information regarding the events mentioned above is not available by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, this market will remain open until January 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. If by that date there is still no clear information indicating that one of the listed events has occurred,  this market will resolve to “Yes”.

The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/AI.png
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/AI2.png

Nothing Ever Happens: AI Edition

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the AI industry experiences an industry downturn by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For the purposes of this market, the AI industry will be considered to have experienced an industry downturn once at least three of the following events have occurred within 90 days of this market's specified timeframe:
- NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA) closing stock price is down 50% from its all-time high.
- iShares PHLX Semiconductor ETF (SOXX) closing stock price is down 40% from its all-time high.
- OpenAI, Inc. or Anthropic PBC declares bankruptcy.
- OpenAI, Inc. is acquired.
- H100 rental price falls to $1.00 or lower for five consecutive days, as shown on the SiliconData Silicon Index at:
https://www.silicondata.com/products/silicon-index.
- Major AI Hardware Supplier Collapse: Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Limited (TSM), ASML Holding N.V. (ASML), Broadcom Inc. (AVGO), Arista Networks, Inc. (ANET), or Super Micro Computer, Inc. (SMCI), closing stock price is down 50% from its all-time high.

This market may resolve immediately once three conditions have been met within 90 days of the specified timeframe.

This market will not resolve to "Yes" until three conditions have been met, regardless of reporting of an industry downturn or similar claims.

The primary resolution source will be official information from the respective companies and listing exchanges; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

AI Industry Downturn by December 31, 2026?

Robinhood, through a joint venture with Susquehanna International Group, recently acquired a majority stake in MIAXdx, a Commodity Futures Trading Commission-licensed Designated Contract Market and Derivatives Clearing Organization, signaling Robinhood’s intent to deepen its involvement in prediction markets (see: https://robinhood.com/us/en/newsroom/robinhood-prediction-markets-joint-venture/).

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Robinhood makes at least one MIAXdx-cleared prediction market user-tradable on their U.S. platform in any U.S. state by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

“MIAXdx-cleared” means the prediction market contract is listed on the MIAXdx Designated Contract Market and subject to MIAXdx clearing. Prediction markets offered by Robinhood through KalshiEX, ForecastEX, or any other exchange will not count.

Announcements alone do not qualify; the product must be operational.

Any rebranding or renaming of MIAXdx will not affect the resolution of this market.

The primary source of resolution for this market will be information from the Robinhood U.S. trading platform and a consensus of credible reporting.

Robinhood launches prediction market through MIAXdx by March 31?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Phantom officially launches a token by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The token must be actively and publicly transferable and tradable. Announcements alone do not qualify

The primary resolution source for this market will be information from Phantom, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.


Will Phantom launch a token in 2025?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Kraken completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) by the listed date ET, as confirmed by official company announcements and credible news sources. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."

The IPO refers to the first sale of stock by the listed company to the public on any recognized stock exchange.

If Kraken is acquired by another company that is already public, this market will immediately resolve to "No."

The resolution source for this market is a consensus of credible reporting.

Kraken IPO by December 31, 2026?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Cristiano Ronaldo officially launches a token by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Only tokens which are confirmed to have been launched by Cristiano Ronaldo, either through posts from official social media channels, or otherwise confirmed by public statements will qualify.

The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Will Cristiano Ronaldo launch a token by December 31?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Rabby officially launches a token by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The token must be actively and publicly transferable and tradable. Announcements alone do not qualify

The primary resolution source for this market will be information from Rabby, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.


Will Rabby launch a token in 2025?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if USD.AI officially launches a governance token by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

The token must be actively and publicly transferable and tradable. Announcements alone do not qualify.

The primary resolution source for this market will be information from USD.AI (https://x.com/USDai_Official), however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Will USD.AI launch a token by March 31?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Abstract officially launches a token by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The token must be actively and publicly transferable and tradable. Announcements alone do not qualify

The primary resolution source for this market will be information from Abstract, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.


Will Abstract launch a token by December 31, 2026

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Infinex (https://infinex.xyz/) officially launches a token by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The token must be publicly announced and transferable on a blockchain. If a first such token launch occurs outside of this market's timeframe, this market will immediately resolve to "No".

The resolution source will be public announcements from Infinex.

Will Infinex launch a token by June 30, 2026?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if any weekly bar in the Kaito “Mindshare over time (L12M)” chart reaches a new all-time high at any point between November 19 and 11:59 PM ET on the date specified in the title. If no new all-time high occurs, the market will resolve to “No.”

The resolution source is the creator’s page on Kaito. The weekly bar chart can be viewed by clicking the creator’s name at: https://yaps.kaito.ai/ct-leaderboard

A weekly bar counts as long as its date range includes the target date. A weekly bar is considered finalized once a bar for the following week is published.

Only the weekly values shown in the L12M chart are used for resolution.

If the Kaito page is temporarily unavailable at resolution time, the market will remain open until it returns. If it becomes permanently unavailable, the market will resolve to “No.”

Cobie mindshare all time high by March 31?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Ostium Labs officially launches a token by 11:59 PM ET on the date specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The token must be actively and publicly transferable and tradable. Announcements alone do not qualify

The primary resolution source for this market will be information from Ostium Labs, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.


Will Ostium launch a token by December 31, 2026?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Aztec officially launches a token by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The token must be actively and publicly transferable and tradable. Announcements alone do not qualify

The primary resolution source for this market will be information from Aztec (https://aztec.network/), however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.


Will Aztec launch a token by December 31, 2026?

This market will resolve to “No” if any of the following conditions are met by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET:

- US confirms that aliens exist
- Conclusive proof becomes public that the Earth is flat
- Trump says the Moon Landing was faked

Otherwise, this market will resolve to “Yes”.

The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Nothing+Ever+Happens+Conspiracy+Edition.pdf

Nothing Ever Happens: Conspiracy Edition

This market will resolve to "Yes" if EdgeX officially launches a token by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The token must be actively and publicly transferable and tradable. Announcements alone do not qualify

The primary resolution source for this market will be information from EdgeX (https://www.edgex.exchange/en), however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.


Will edgeX launch a token in 2025?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Robinhood’s recently acquired Designated Contract Market (DCM), MIAXdx, self-certifies at least one sports-related event-based contract with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) at any point before March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

The primary resolution source will be official information released by the CFTC, Robinhood, or MIAXdx; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.


Robinhood self-certifies sports event contract by March 31? 

This market will resolve based on Anthropic's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.

If no IPO occurs by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by June 30, 2026".

Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.

If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.

Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.

In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on Anthropic’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.

Will Anthropic not IPO by June 30, 2026?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Unit (https://hyperunit.xyz/) officially launches a governance token by 11:59 PM ET on the date specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The token must be actively and publicly transferable and tradable. Announcements alone do not qualify

The primary resolution source for this market will be information from Unit, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.


Will Unit launch a token by December 31, 2026?

This market will immediately resolve to "Yes" if any TradingView 1 minute candle for BTC.D between Sept 5, 2025, 15:30 and December 31, 2025, 23:59 in the ET timezone has a final "High" value of 70.00% or higher. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."

The resolution source for this market is TradingView, specifically the BTC.D "High" percentage currently available at https://www.tradingview.com/chart/?symbol=CRYPTOCAP%3ABTC.D with “1m” and “Candles” selected on the top bar.

Please note that this market is about the percentage according to TradingView BTC.D, not according to other sources or spot markets.

Will Bitcoin Dominance hit 70% before 2026?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Based’s cumulative Polymarket revenue is equal to or greater than the value specified in the title by December 31, 2026 ET. Otherwise, the market will resolve to “No”.

The resolution source for this market is the Based revenue bar chart available at https://dune.com/datadashboards/based-statistics, using the “Cumulative Revenue” value displayed when hovering over the daily data point.

This market will resolve as soon as the cumulative revenue shown on the dashboard is equal to or greater than the value specified in the title, or once the value for Dec 31, 2026 is finalized and no earlier value has met or exceeded that threshold.

If the resolution source becomes permanently unavailable, the market will resolve based on on-chain data, Based official communication, or other reliable crypto sources.

Will Based Polymarket revenue hit $1M before 2027?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if official information released by Bybit, official representatives of Bybit (e.g. lawyers, spokespeople, etc.), or a consensus of credible reporting announces by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET that Bybit is insolvent or is filing/has filed for any variety of bankruptcy. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Bybit insolvent in 2025?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Pacifica (https://x.com/pacifica_fi) officially launches a governance token by 11:59 PM ET on the date specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

The token must be actively and publicly transferable and tradable. Announcements alone do not qualify.

The primary resolution source for this market will be information from Pacifica, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Will Pacifica launch a token by December 31 2026?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if OpenAI publicly announces and launches a new consumer hardware product by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". 

A "consumer hardware product" is defined as a physical device intended for direct use by individual consumers, rather than enterprise or developer tools. The product must be newly introduced and not a rebrand, update, or iteration of any previously released device.

Examples that would qualify include an AI-powered wearable, smart home assistant, or augmented reality device. Developer tools, AI chips, or servers marketed exclusively for enterprise use would not qualify.

The resolution source will be official information from OpenAI.

Will OpenAI launch a new consumer hardware product by December 31, 2026?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple releases a new AirTag product by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

A qualifying product must be named "AirTag" and be recognized as a successor to the original AirTag product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 14 and iPhone 15. A new AirTag product released without a number, under a designation other than AirTag 2 will qualify if it retains the original functions of the AirTag and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.

In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Will Apple release AirTag 2 by June 30?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if OpenAI completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) by the listed date ET, as confirmed by official company announcements and credible news sources. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The IPO refers to the first sale of stock by the listed company to the public on any recognized stock exchange.

If OpenAI is acquired by another company that is already public, this market will immediately resolve to "No."

The resolution source for this market is a consensus of credible reporting.

Will OpenAI IPO by December 31 2026?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Felix Protocol officially launches a token by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The token must be actively and publicly transferable and tradable. Announcements alone do not qualify

The primary resolution source for this market will be information from Felix Protocol, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.


Will Felix Protocol launch a token by December 31, 2026?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if $PUP (https://www.coingecko.com/en/coins/pup-token) receives a perp listing on any centralized or decentralized exchange by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, it will resolve to “No.”

A listing will count if it is live and publicly accessible for trading.

The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Will $PUP receive a perp listing by March 31?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Grok has a native macOS desktop application publicly available for download in the U.S by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The application must be officially released by xAI (or Elon Musk via official xAI/Grok communication channels).

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from xAI, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Will Grok have a MacOS desktop app live by December 31?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Opensea officially launches a token by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The token must be publicly announced and transferable on a blockchain. If a first such token launch occurs outside of this market's timeframe, this market will immediately resolve to "No".

The resolution source will be public announcements from Opensea.

Will Opensea launch a token by December 31? 

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Sentient officially launches a token by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The token must be actively and publicly transferable and tradable. Announcements alone do not qualify

The primary resolution source for this market will be information from Sentient (https://www.sentient.xyz/), however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.


Will Sentient launch a token in 2025?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the 30-Year Fixed Rate Mortgage Average in the United States falls below 6.00% at any point between September 2 and December 31, 2025. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

If, for any reason, there is no data point for this market's resolution date on either of the sources listed below, information for the nearest previously available date will be used.

The primary resolution source for this market is Freddie Mac, specifically https://www.freddiemac.com/pmms. The data that will be looked at is the "30Y FRM" as indicated on the graph titled "Primary Mortgage Market Survey®". If the resolution source is unavailable, https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/MORTGAGE30US will be looked at instead. If both sources are unavailable, other credible reporting may be used.

30-year mortgage rate below 6% by December 31?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump signs any federal legislation or performs any executive action that creates a ‘DOGE dividend’ by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Any cash transfer, tax credit, or other comparable financial transfer which is referred to as a DOGE dividend, or which is otherwise directly funded by savings created by the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) will qualify.  

Any bill signed into law or executive action taken within this market's time frame will qualify, regardless of when the law or action goes into effect.

This market's primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible information will also be used.

Will Trump create a DOGE dividend in 2025? 

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Cloudflare experiences any incident classified as Critical (red) by January 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

Qualifying incidents may include outages and other issues that Cloudflare may classify as Critical.

Revisions to the impact classification of any such incident will be considered as long as those revisions are published within this market’s timeframe.

If an incident is ongoing at this market’s resolution time, the market may remain open until that incident receives an official impact classification, and it will resolve based on the first such classification published, regardless of subsequent revisions or corrections.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Cloudflare (for example, on cloudflarestatus.com or cloudflarestatus.com/history); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Airdrops by September 30?

Berachain
$37,842 Vol.
No

Linea
$28,076 Vol.
No

Scroll
$78,961 Vol.
No

Farcaster
$52,244 Vol.
No

Rainbow
$178,541 Vol.
No

Puffer
$103,505 Vol.
No

Astaria
$126,958 Vol.
No

PartyDAO
$46,922 Vol.
No

Aleo
$306,662 Vol.
No

Jumper
$54,601 Vol.
No

Pudgy Penguins
$33,936 Vol.
No

Zircuit
$109,784 Vol.
No

pump.fun
$55,554 Vol.
No

Rabby
$62,601 Vol.
No

Swell
$244,247 Vol.
No

Eigenlayer
$1,508,246 Vol.
Yes

Base
$303,960 Vol.
No

MetaMask
$326,464 Vol.
No

Market Context

Airdrops by September 30?

Rules

Airdrops by September 30?

Market Context

Airdrops by September 30?

About

Related

Airdrops by September 30?

Berachain$37,842 Vol.Nocircle xmark

Linea$28,076 Vol.Nocircle xmark

Scroll$78,961 Vol.Nocircle xmark

Farcaster$52,244 Vol.Nocircle xmark

Rainbow$178,541 Vol.Nocircle xmark

Puffer$103,505 Vol.Nocircle xmark

Astaria$126,958 Vol.Nocircle xmark

PartyDAO$46,922 Vol.Nocircle xmark

Aleo$306,662 Vol.Nocircle xmark

Jumper$54,601 Vol.Nocircle xmark

Pudgy Penguins$33,936 Vol.Nocircle xmark

Zircuit$109,784 Vol.Nocircle xmark

pump.fun$55,554 Vol.Nocircle xmark

Rabby$62,601 Vol.Nocircle xmark

Swell$244,247 Vol.Nocircle xmark

Eigenlayer$1,508,246 Vol.Yescircle check

Base$303,960 Vol.Nocircle xmark

MetaMask$326,464 Vol.Nocircle xmark

Market Context

Airdrops by September 30?

Rules

Airdrops by September 30?

Market Context

Airdrops by September 30?

About

Related

Berachain
$37,842 Vol.
No

Linea
$28,076 Vol.
No

Scroll
$78,961 Vol.
No

Farcaster
$52,244 Vol.
No

Rainbow
$178,541 Vol.
No

Puffer
$103,505 Vol.
No

Astaria
$126,958 Vol.
No

PartyDAO
$46,922 Vol.
No

Aleo
$306,662 Vol.
No

Jumper
$54,601 Vol.
No

Pudgy Penguins
$33,936 Vol.
No

Zircuit
$109,784 Vol.
No

pump.fun
$55,554 Vol.
No

Rabby
$62,601 Vol.
No

Swell
$244,247 Vol.
No

Eigenlayer
$1,508,246 Vol.
Yes

Base
$303,960 Vol.
No

MetaMask
$326,464 Vol.
No