Name: Airdrops by June 30?
Start: 2024-02-13T17:54:15.755Z
End: 2024-06-29T12:00:00Z

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This market will resolve to "Yes" if Rabby launches a token and announces they have performed an airdrop between February 13, 2024 and June 30, 2024, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For the purposes of this market "locked" tokens or non-swappable tokens will not suffice to resolve this market to "Yes".

The primary resolution source for this market is on-chain information and official information from the Rabby team, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Rabby

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Aleo launches a token and announces they have performed an airdrop between February 13, 2024 and June 30, 2024, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For the purposes of this market "locked" tokens or non-swappable tokens will not suffice to resolve this market to "Yes".

The primary resolution source for this market is on-chain information and official information from the Aleo team, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Aleo

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Rainbow launches a token and announces they have performed an airdrop between February 13, 2024 and June 30, 2024, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For the purposes of this market "locked" tokens or non-swappable tokens will not suffice to resolve this market to "Yes".

The primary resolution source for this market is on-chain information and official information from the Rainbow team, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Rainbow

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Blast launches a token and announces they have performed an airdrop between February 13, 2024 and June 30, 2024, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For the purposes of this market "locked" tokens or non-swappable tokens will not suffice to resolve this market to "Yes".

The primary resolution source for this market is on-chain information and official information from the Blast team, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Blast

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Base launches a token and announces they have performed an airdrop between February 13, 2024 and June 30, 2024, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For the purposes of this market "locked" tokens or non-swappable tokens will not suffice to resolve this market to "Yes".

The primary resolution source for this market is on-chain information and official information from the Base/Coinbase team, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Base

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Pudgy Penguins launches a token and announces they have performed an airdrop between February 13, 2024 and June 30, 2024, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For the purposes of this market "locked" tokens or non-swappable tokens will not suffice to resolve this market to "Yes".

The primary resolution source for this market is on-chain information and official information from the Pudgy Penguins team, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Pudgy Penguins

This market will resolve to "Yes" if zkSync launches a token and announces they have performed an airdrop between February 13, 2024 and June 30, 2024, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For the purposes of this market "locked" tokens or non-swappable tokens will not suffice to resolve this market to "Yes".

The primary resolution source for this market is on-chain information and official information from the zkSync team, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

zkSync

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Drift launches a token and announces they have performed an airdrop between February 13, 2024 and June 30, 2024, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For the purposes of this market "locked" tokens or non-swappable tokens will not suffice to resolve this market to "Yes".

The primary resolution source for this market is on-chain information and official information from the Drift team, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Drift

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Linea launches a token and announces they have performed an airdrop between February 13, 2024 and June 30, 2024, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For the purposes of this market "locked" tokens or non-swappable tokens will not suffice to resolve this market to "Yes".

The primary resolution source for this market is on-chain information and official information from the Linea team, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Linea

This market will resolve to "Yes" if LayerZero launches a token and announces they have performed an airdrop between February 13, 2024 and June 30, 2024, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For the purposes of this market "locked" tokens or non-swappable tokens will not suffice to resolve this market to "Yes".

The primary resolution source for this market is on-chain information and official information from the LayerZero team, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

LayerZero

This market will resolve to "Yes" if MarginFi launches a token and announces they have performed an airdrop between February 13, 2024 and June 30, 2024, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For the purposes of this market "locked" tokens or non-swappable tokens will not suffice to resolve this market to "Yes".

The primary resolution source for this market is on-chain information and official information from the MarginFi team, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

MarginFi

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Berachain launches a token and announces they have performed an airdrop between February 13, 2024 and June 30, 2024, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For the purposes of this market "locked" tokens or non-swappable tokens will not suffice to resolve this market to "Yes".

The primary resolution source for this market is on-chain information and official information from the Berachain team, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Berachain

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Scroll launches a token and announces they have performed an airdrop between February 13, 2024 and June 30, 2024, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For the purposes of this market "locked" tokens or non-swappable tokens will not suffice to resolve this market to "Yes".

The primary resolution source for this market is on-chain information and official information from the Scroll team, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Scroll

This market will resolve to "Yes" if EigenLayer launches a token and announces they have performed an airdrop by June 30, 2024, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For the purposes of this market "locked" tokens or non-swappable tokens will not suffice to resolve this market to "Yes".

The primary resolution source for this market is on-chain information and official information from the EigenLayer team, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Eigenlayer

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Swell launches a token and announces they have performed an airdrop by June 30, 2024, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For the purposes of this market "locked" tokens or non-swappable tokens will not suffice to resolve this market to "Yes".

The primary resolution source for this market is on-chain information and official information from the Swell team, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Swell

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Taiko launches a token and announces they have performed an airdrop by June 30, 2024, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For the purposes of this market "locked" tokens or non-swappable tokens will not suffice to resolve this market to "Yes".

The primary resolution source for this market is on-chain information and official information from the Taiko team, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Taiko

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Puffer Finance launches a token and announces they have performed an airdrop by June 30, 2024, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For the purposes of this market "locked" tokens or non-swappable tokens will not suffice to resolve this market to "Yes".

The primary resolution source for this market is on-chain information and official information from the Puffer Finance team, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Puffer

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Zircuit launches a token and announces they have performed an airdrop between February 26, 2024 and June 30, 2024, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For the purposes of this market "locked" tokens or non-swappable tokens will not suffice to resolve this market to "Yes".

The primary resolution source for this market is on-chain information and official information from the Zircuit team, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Zircuit

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Initia launches a token and announces they have performed an airdrop by June 30, 2024, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For the purposes of this market "locked" tokens or non-swappable tokens will not suffice to resolve this market to "Yes".

The primary resolution source for this market is on-chain information and official information from the Initia team (https://initia.xyz/), however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Initia

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Astaria launches a token and announces they have performed an airdrop between February 13, 2024 and June 30, 2024, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For the purposes of this market "locked" tokens or non-swappable tokens will not suffice to resolve this market to "Yes".

The primary resolution source for this market is on-chain information and official information from the Astaria team, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Astaria

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Argent launches a token and announces they have performed an airdrop between February 13, 2024 and June 30, 2024, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For the purposes of this market "locked" tokens or non-swappable tokens will not suffice to resolve this market to "Yes".

The primary resolution source for this market is on-chain information and official information from the Argent team, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Argent

This market will resolve to "Yes" if pump.fun launches a token and announces they have performed an airdrop between February 13, 2024 and June 30, 2024, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For the purposes of this market "locked" tokens or non-swappable tokens will not suffice to resolve this market to "Yes".

The primary resolution source for this market is on-chain information and official information from the pump.fun team, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

pump.fun

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Jumper launches a token and announces they have performed an airdrop between February 13, 2024 and June 30, 2024, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For the purposes of this market "locked" tokens or non-swappable tokens will not suffice to resolve this market to "Yes".

The primary resolution source for this market is on-chain information and official information from the Jumper team, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Jumper

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Zora launches a token and announces they have performed an airdrop between February 13, 2024 and June 30, 2024, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For the purposes of this market "locked" tokens or non-swappable tokens will not suffice to resolve this market to "Yes".

The primary resolution source for this market is on-chain information and official information from the Zora team, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Zora

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Foundation launches a token and announces they have performed an airdrop between February 13, 2024 and June 30, 2024, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For the purposes of this market "locked" tokens or non-swappable tokens will not suffice to resolve this market to "Yes".

The primary resolution source for this market is on-chain information and official information from the Foundation team, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Foundation

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Zerion launches a token and announces they have performed an airdrop between February 13, 2024 and June 30, 2024, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For the purposes of this market "locked" tokens or non-swappable tokens will not suffice to resolve this market to "Yes".

The primary resolution source for this market is on-chain information and official information from the Zerion team, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Zerion

This market will resolve to "Yes" if PartyDAO launches a token and announces they have performed an airdrop between February 13, 2024 and June 30, 2024, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For the purposes of this market "locked" tokens or non-swappable tokens will not suffice to resolve this market to "Yes".

The primary resolution source for this market is on-chain information and official information from the PartyDAO team, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

PartyDAO

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Rysk launches a token and announces they have performed an airdrop between February 13, 2024 and June 30, 2024, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For the purposes of this market "locked" tokens or non-swappable tokens will not suffice to resolve this market to "Yes".

The primary resolution source for this market is on-chain information and official information from the Rysk team, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Rysk

This market will resolve to "Yes" if MetaMask launches a token and announces they have performed an airdrop between February 13, 2024 and June 30, 2024, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For the purposes of this market "locked" tokens or non-swappable tokens will not suffice to resolve this market to "Yes".

The primary resolution source for this market is on-chain information and official information from the MetaMask team, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

MetaMask

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Mantle launches a token and announces they have performed an airdrop between February 13, 2024 and June 30, 2024, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For the purposes of this market "locked" tokens or non-swappable tokens will not suffice to resolve this market to "Yes".

The primary resolution source for this market is on-chain information and official information from the Mantle team, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Mantle

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Backpack launches a token and announces they have performed an airdrop between February 13, 2024 and June 30, 2024, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For the purposes of this market "locked" tokens or non-swappable tokens will not suffice to resolve this market to "Yes".

The primary resolution source for this market is on-chain information and official information from the Backpack team, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Backpack

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Phantom launches a token and announces they have performed an airdrop between February 13, 2024 and June 30, 2024, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For the purposes of this market "locked" tokens or non-swappable tokens will not suffice to resolve this market to "Yes".

The primary resolution source for this market is on-chain information and official information from the Phantom team, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Phantom

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Magic Eden launches a token and announces they have performed an airdrop between February 13, 2024 and June 30, 2024, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For the purposes of this market "locked" tokens or non-swappable tokens will not suffice to resolve this market to "Yes".

The primary resolution source for this market is on-chain information and official information from the Magic Eden team, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Magic Eden

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Azuro launches a token and announces they have performed an airdrop between May 1, 2024 and June 30, 2024, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For the purposes of this market "locked" tokens or non-swappable tokens will not suffice to resolve this market to "Yes".

The primary resolution source for this market is on-chain information and official information from the Azuro team, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Azuro

Airdrops

Airdrops by June 30?

This is a market on the likelihood and outcomes of cryptocurrency airdrops occurring in 2024.

Airdrops in 2024

This is a market on the likelihood of cryptocurrency airdrops occurring by September 30.

Airdrops by September 30?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the named entity launches a token and announces they have performed an airdrop between April 1, 12:00 AM and June 30, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For the purposes of this market "locked" tokens or non-swappable tokens will not suffice to resolve this market to "Yes".

The primary resolution source for this market is on-chain information and official information from the named entity's team, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Airdrops in Q2 2025

This is a market on the likelihood and specifics of airdrop events occurring in the first quarter of 2025.

Airdrops in Q1 2025

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the named entity launches a token and announces they have performed an airdrop between July 1, 12:00 AM and August 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For the purposes of this market "locked" tokens or non-swappable tokens will not suffice to resolve this market to "Yes".

The primary resolution source for this market is on-chain information and official information from the named entity's team, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.


Airdrops in Q3 2025

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Ligher launches a token and performs an airdrop by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For the purposes of this market "locked" tokens or non-swappable tokens will not suffice to resolve this market to "Yes". Airdrops of NFTs will not qualify.

The primary resolution source for this market is on-chain information and official information from Lighter, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Will lighter perform an airdrop by December 31? 

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Hyperliquid performs a second airdrop by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For the purposes of this market "locked" tokens or non-swappable tokens will not suffice to resolve this market to "Yes". Airdrops of NFTs will not qualify.

The primary resolution source for this market is on-chain information and official information from Hyperliquid, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Will Hyperliquid perform an airdrop by December 31, 2026? 

This market will resolve to “No” if any of the following conditions are met between September 25, 2025, and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET:

- Base Airdrop occurs
- Metamask Airdrop occurs
- OpenSea Airdrop occurs
- Pump.fun Airdrop occurs

Otherwise, this market will resolve to “Yes”.

The full rules for this market can be found here: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/airdrop.png

Nothing Ever Happens: Airdrops Edition

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Monad launches a token and performs an airdrop by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For the purposes of this market "locked" tokens or non-swappable tokens will not suffice to resolve this market to "Yes". Airdrops of NFTs will not qualify.

The primary resolution source for this market is on-chain information and official information from Monad, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Will Monad perform an airdrop by June 30?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Axiom officially launches a token by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The token must be actively and publicly transferable and tradable. Announcements alone do not qualify

The primary resolution source for this market will be information from Axiom, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.


Will Axiom launch a token in 2025?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Pump.fun launches a token and performs an airdrop by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For the purposes of this market "locked" tokens or non-swappable tokens will not suffice to resolve this market to "Yes". Airdrops of NFTs will not qualify.

The primary resolution source for this market is on-chain information and official information from Pump.fun, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Will Pump.fun perform an airdrop by March 31? 

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Infinex (https://infinex.xyz/) officially launches a token by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The token must be publicly announced and transferable on a blockchain. If a first such token launch occurs outside of this market's timeframe, this market will immediately resolve to "No".

The resolution source will be public announcements from Infinex.

Will Infinex launch a token by June 30, 2026?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Elizabeth Holmes officially launches a token by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Only tokens which are confirmed to have been launched by Elizabeth Holmes either through posts from official social media channels, or otherwise confirmed by public statements will qualify.

The token must be actively and publicly transferable and tradable. Announcements alone do not qualify.

The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Will Elizabeth Holmes launch a coin by December 31?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if all of the following conditions are met by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET:

- Grok has a native macOS desktop application publicly available for download
- OpenAI publicly releases a standalone web browser
- Apple releases a new AirTag product
- Google's Gemini 3.0 model is made available to the general public
- Grokipedia is made available to the general public

Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

This market will remain open until it is confirmed that at least one of the above conditions has not been met, or until all of the above conditions have been met.

Qualifying releases during this market's timeframe will count, regardless of any subsequent reversal, rollback, or withdrawal of access.

The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Tech.pdf 

Tech Release Parlay

This market will resolve to "Yes" if MegaETH launches a token and performs an airdrop by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For the purposes of this market "locked" tokens or non-swappable tokens will not suffice to resolve this market to "Yes". Airdrops of NFTs will not qualify.

The primary resolution source for this market is on-chain information and official information from MegaETH, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Will MegaETH perform an airdrop by June 30? 

This market will resolve to "Yes" if, before June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, xAI releases a Diffusion Large Language Model (dLLM). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Any xAI dLMM will be considered to be released if it is launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be clearly defined and publicly announced by xAI as being accessible to the general public.

A Diffusion Large Language Model (dLLM) is any model for which official publicly released documentation, such as a model card, technical paper, or official statements from its developers, clearly identifies diffusion or iterative denoising as a central part of its text-generation or decoding process.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from xAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.

Will xAI release a dLLM by June 30?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Phantom officially launches a token by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The token must be actively and publicly transferable and tradable. Announcements alone do not qualify

The primary resolution source for this market will be information from Phantom, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.


Will Phantom launch a token in 2025?

As of market creation, Zoom Communications is estimated to release earnings on November 24, 2025. The Street consensus estimate for Zoom Communications’s non-GAAP EPS for the relevant quarter is $1.44 as of market creation. This market will resolve to "Yes" if Zoom Communications reports non-GAAP EPS greater than $1.44 for the relevant quarter in its next quarterly earnings release. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No." The resolution source will be the non-GAAP EPS listed in the company’s official earnings documents. 

If Zoom Communications releases earnings without non-GAAP EPS, then the market will resolve according to the non-GAAP EPS figure reported by SeekingAlpha. If no such figure is published within 96h of market close (4:00:00pm ET) on the day earnings are announced, the market will resolve according to the GAAP EPS listed in the company’s official earnings documents; or, if not published there, according to the GAAP EPS provided by SeekingAlpha. If no GAAP EPS number is available from either source at that time, the market will resolve to “No.” (For the purposes of this market, GAAP EPS refers to diluted GAAP EPS, unless it is not published, in which case it refers to basic GAAP EPS.)

If the company does not release earnings within 45 calendar days of the estimated earnings date, this market will resolve to “No.” 

Note: Subsequent restatements, corrections, or revisions made to the initially announced non-GAAP EPS figure will not qualify for resolution, except in the case of obvious and immediate mistakes (e.g., fat finger errors, as with Lyft's (LYFT) earnings release in February 2024).
Note: The strike prices used in these markets are derived from SeekingAlpha estimates, and reflect the consensus of sell-side analyst estimates for non-GAAP EPS.
Note: All figures will be rounded to the nearest cent using standard rounding.
Note: For the purposes of this market, IFRS EPS will be treated as GAAP EPS.
Note: If multiple versions of non-GAAP EPS are published, the market will resolve according to the primary headline non-GAAP EPS number, which is typically presented on a diluted basis. If diluted is not published, then basic non-GAAP EPS will qualify.
Note: All figures are expressed in USD, unless otherwise indicated.
Note: For primarily internationally listed companies, this market refers specifically to the shares traded in the United States on U.S. stock exchanges such as the NYSE or Nasdaq. In cases where the company trades in the U.S. through an American Depositary Receipt (ADR) or American Depositary Share (ADS), this market will refer to the ADR/ADS.


Will Zoom Communications (ZM) beat quarterly earnings?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if EdgeX officially launches a token by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The token must be actively and publicly transferable and tradable. Announcements alone do not qualify

The primary resolution source for this market will be information from EdgeX (https://www.edgex.exchange/en), however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.


Will edgeX launch a token in 2025?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if USD.AI officially launches a governance token by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

The token must be actively and publicly transferable and tradable. Announcements alone do not qualify.

The primary resolution source for this market will be information from USD.AI (https://x.com/USDai_Official), however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Will USD.AI launch a token by March 31?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Unit (https://hyperunit.xyz/) officially launches a token by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The token must be actively and publicly transferable and tradable. Announcements alone do not qualify

The primary resolution source for this market will be information from Unit, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.


Will Unit launch a token in 2025?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if StandX officially launches a token by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The token must be actively and publicly transferable and tradable. Announcements alone do not qualify

The primary resolution source for this market will be information from StandX (https://x.com/StandX_Official), however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.


Will StandX launch a token by March 31?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Rabby officially launches a token by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The token must be actively and publicly transferable and tradable. Announcements alone do not qualify

The primary resolution source for this market will be information from Rabby, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.


Will Rabby launch a token in 2025?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the crypto token Hyperliquid ($HYPE) is listed for spot purchase on Coinbase by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source for this market will be Coinbase, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Hyperliquid listed on Coinbase in 2025?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Abstract officially launches a token by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The token must be actively and publicly transferable and tradable. Announcements alone do not qualify

The primary resolution source for this market will be information from Abstract, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.


Will Abstract launch a token in 2025?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if it is announced that Mistral AI will be, has been, or is being acquired by or merged with Apple (Apple inc.) by November 30, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

An announcement by Mistral AI will qualify for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether the announced acquisition/merger actually occurs.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Apple or Mistral AI, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Will Apple acquire Mistral by November 30?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Zama officially launches a token by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The token must be actively and publicly transferable and tradable. Announcements alone do not qualify

The primary resolution source for this market will be information from Zama, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.


Will Zama launch a token in 2025?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if prjx.com officially launches a token by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The token must be actively and publicly transferable and tradable. Announcements alone do not qualify

The primary resolution source for this market will be information from prjx.com, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.


Will prjx launch a token in 2025?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Base officially launches a token by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The token must be actively and publicly transferable and tradable. Announcements alone do not qualify

The primary resolution source for this market will be information from Base, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.


Will Base launch a token in 2025?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump signs any federal legislation or performs any executive action that creates a ‘DOGE dividend’ by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Any cash transfer, tax credit, or other comparable financial transfer which is referred to as a DOGE dividend, or which is otherwise directly funded by savings created by the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) will qualify.  

Any bill signed into law or executive action taken within this market's time frame will qualify, regardless of when the law or action goes into effect.

This market's primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible information will also be used.

Will Trump create a DOGE dividend in 2025? 

This market will resolve to "Yes" if diVine, the short-form video app backed by Jack Dorsey, has a functional native iOS application publicly available for download in the U.S. by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

To qualify, the app has to be functional, i.e., it must be publicly accessible, installable, and capable of performing its core short-form video functions (such as viewing, uploading, or interacting with videos) in a manner consistent with a normal early-stage launch. Minor bugs or limited features will not disqualify the app so long as core functionality is available to the public.

The application must be officially released by diVine or through official diVine communication channels.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from diVine; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Will diVine launch iOS app by December 31?

As of market creation, AECOM is estimated to release earnings on November 18, 2025. The Street consensus estimate for AECOM’s non-GAAP EPS for the relevant quarter is $1.34 as of market creation. This market will resolve to "Yes" if AECOM reports non-GAAP EPS greater than $1.34 for the relevant quarter in its next quarterly earnings release. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No." The resolution source will be the non-GAAP EPS listed in the company’s official earnings documents. 

If AECOM releases earnings without non-GAAP EPS, then the market will resolve according to the non-GAAP EPS figure reported by SeekingAlpha. If no such figure is published within 96h of market close (4:00:00pm ET) on the day earnings are announced, the market will resolve according to the GAAP EPS listed in the company’s official earnings documents; or, if not published there, according to the GAAP EPS provided by SeekingAlpha. If no GAAP EPS number is available from either source at that time, the market will resolve to “No.” (For the purposes of this market, GAAP EPS refers to diluted GAAP EPS, unless it is not published, in which case it refers to basic GAAP EPS.)

If the company does not release earnings within 45 calendar days of the estimated earnings date, this market will resolve to “No.” 

Note: Subsequent restatements, corrections, or revisions made to the initially announced non-GAAP EPS figure will not qualify for resolution, except in the case of obvious and immediate mistakes (e.g., fat finger errors, as with Lyft's (LYFT) earnings release in February 2024).
Note: The strike prices used in these markets are derived from SeekingAlpha estimates, and reflect the consensus of sell-side analyst estimates for non-GAAP EPS.
Note: All figures will be rounded to the nearest cent using standard rounding.
Note: For the purposes of this market, IFRS EPS will be treated as GAAP EPS.
Note: If multiple versions of non-GAAP EPS are published, the market will resolve according to the primary headline non-GAAP EPS number, which is typically presented on a diluted basis. If diluted is not published, then basic non-GAAP EPS will qualify.
Note: All figures are expressed in USD, unless otherwise indicated.
Note: For primarily internationally listed companies, this market refers specifically to the shares traded in the United States on U.S. stock exchanges such as the NYSE or Nasdaq. In cases where the company trades in the U.S. through an American Depositary Receipt (ADR) or American Depositary Share (ADS), this market will refer to the ADR/ADS.


Will AECOM (ACM) beat quarterly earnings?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Fully Diluted Valuation of Rainbow's token is greater than the value specified in the title 1 day after launch. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No."

The token must be actively, publicly transferable and tradable to be considered a launch.

"1 day after launch" is defined as 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following launch. The resolution source for this market is the most liquid price source available. If Rainbow (https://rainbow.me/) doesn't launch a token by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".

Rainbow FDV above $500M one day after launch?

As of market creation, La-Z-Boy is estimated to release earnings on November 18, 2025. The Street consensus estimate for La-Z-Boy’s non-GAAP EPS for the relevant quarter is $0.54 as of market creation. This market will resolve to "Yes" if La-Z-Boy reports non-GAAP EPS greater than $0.54 for the relevant quarter in its next quarterly earnings release. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No." The resolution source will be the non-GAAP EPS listed in the company’s official earnings documents. 

If La-Z-Boy releases earnings without non-GAAP EPS, then the market will resolve according to the non-GAAP EPS figure reported by SeekingAlpha. If no such figure is published within 96h of market close (4:00:00pm ET) on the day earnings are announced, the market will resolve according to the GAAP EPS listed in the company’s official earnings documents; or, if not published there, according to the GAAP EPS provided by SeekingAlpha. If no GAAP EPS number is available from either source at that time, the market will resolve to “No.” (For the purposes of this market, GAAP EPS refers to diluted GAAP EPS, unless it is not published, in which case it refers to basic GAAP EPS.)

If the company does not release earnings within 45 calendar days of the estimated earnings date, this market will resolve to “No.” 

Note: Subsequent restatements, corrections, or revisions made to the initially announced non-GAAP EPS figure will not qualify for resolution, except in the case of obvious and immediate mistakes (e.g., fat finger errors, as with Lyft's (LYFT) earnings release in February 2024).
Note: The strike prices used in these markets are derived from SeekingAlpha estimates, and reflect the consensus of sell-side analyst estimates for non-GAAP EPS.
Note: All figures will be rounded to the nearest cent using standard rounding.
Note: For the purposes of this market, IFRS EPS will be treated as GAAP EPS.
Note: If multiple versions of non-GAAP EPS are published, the market will resolve according to the primary headline non-GAAP EPS number, which is typically presented on a diluted basis. If diluted is not published, then basic non-GAAP EPS will qualify.
Note: All figures are expressed in USD, unless otherwise indicated.
Note: For primarily internationally listed companies, this market refers specifically to the shares traded in the United States on U.S. stock exchanges such as the NYSE or Nasdaq. In cases where the company trades in the U.S. through an American Depositary Receipt (ADR) or American Depositary Share (ADS), this market will refer to the ADR/ADS.


Will La-Z-Boy (LZB) beat quarterly earnings?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Aztec officially launches a token by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The token must be actively and publicly transferable and tradable. Announcements alone do not qualify

The primary resolution source for this market will be information from Aztec (https://aztec.network/), however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.


Will Aztec launch a token in 2025?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Fully Diluted Valuation of Kinetiq's token is greater than the value specified in the title 1 day after launch. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No."

The token must be actively, publicly transferable and tradable to be considered a launch.

"1 day after launch" is defined as 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following launch. The resolution source for this market is the most liquid price source available. If Kinetiq (http://kinetiq.xyz/) doesn't launch a token by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".

Kinetiq FDV above $250M one day after launch?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Fully Diluted Valuation of Infinex's token is greater than the value specified in the title 1 day after launch. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No."

The token must be actively, publicly transferable and tradable to be considered a launch.

"1 day after launch" is defined as 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following launch. The resolution source for this market is the most liquid price source available. If Infinex (https://infinex.xyz/) doesn't launch a token by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".

Infinex FDV above $1B one day after launch?

As of market creation, StoneX Group is estimated to release earnings on November 18, 2025. The Street consensus estimate for StoneX Group's GAAP EPS for the relevant quarter is $1.56 as of market creation. This market will resolve to "Yes" if StoneX Group reports GAAP EPS greater than $1.56 for the relevant quarter in its next quarterly earnings release. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No." The resolution source will be the GAAP EPS listed in the company’s official earnings documents. 

If StoneX Group releases earnings without GAAP EPS, then the market will resolve according to the GAAP EPS figure reported by SeekingAlpha. If no such figure is published within 96h of market close (4:00:00pm ET) on the day earnings are announced, the market will resolve to “No”.

If the company does not release earnings within 45 calendar days of the estimated earnings date, this market will resolve to “No.” 

Note: Subsequent restatements, corrections, or revisions made to the initially announced GAAP EPS figure will not qualify for resolution, except in the case of obvious and immediate mistakes (e.g., fat finger errors, as with Lyft's (LYFT) earnings release in February 2024).
Note: The strike prices used in these markets are derived from SeekingAlpha estimates, and reflect the consensus of sell-side analyst estimates for GAAP EPS. 
Note: All figures will be rounded to the nearest cent using standard rounding.
Note: For the purposes of this market, IFRS EPS will be treated as GAAP EPS.
Note: For the purposes of this market, GAAP EPS refers to diluted GAAP EPS, unless this is not published, in which case it refers to basic GAAP EPS.
Note: All figures are expressed in USD, unless otherwise indicated.
Note: For primarily internationally listed companies, this market refers specifically to the shares traded in the United States on U.S. stock exchanges such as the NYSE or Nasdaq. In cases where the company trades in the U.S. through an American Depositary Receipt (ADR) or American Depositary Share (ADS), this market will refer to the ADR/ADS.


Will StoneX Group (SNEX) beat quarterly earnings?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Stable officially launches a token by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The token must be actively and publicly transferable and tradable. Announcements alone do not qualify

The primary resolution source for this market will be information from Stable (https://www.stable.xyz/), however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.


Will Stable launch a token in 2025?

As of market creation, Bullish is estimated to release earnings on November 19, 2025. The Street consensus estimate for Bullish's GAAP EPS for the relevant quarter is $1.59 as of market creation. This market will resolve to "Yes" if Bullish reports GAAP EPS greater than $1.59 for the relevant quarter in its next quarterly earnings release. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No." The resolution source will be the GAAP EPS listed in the company’s official earnings documents. 

If Bullish releases earnings without GAAP EPS, then the market will resolve according to the GAAP EPS figure reported by SeekingAlpha. If no such figure is published within 96h of market close (4:00:00pm ET) on the day earnings are announced, the market will resolve to “No”.

If the company does not release earnings within 45 calendar days of the estimated earnings date, this market will resolve to “No.” 

Note: Subsequent restatements, corrections, or revisions made to the initially announced GAAP EPS figure will not qualify for resolution, except in the case of obvious and immediate mistakes (e.g., fat finger errors, as with Lyft's (LYFT) earnings release in February 2024).
Note: The strike prices used in these markets are derived from SeekingAlpha estimates, and reflect the consensus of sell-side analyst estimates for GAAP EPS. 
Note: All figures will be rounded to the nearest cent using standard rounding.
Note: For the purposes of this market, IFRS EPS will be treated as GAAP EPS.
Note: For the purposes of this market, GAAP EPS refers to diluted GAAP EPS, unless this is not published, in which case it refers to basic GAAP EPS.
Note: All figures are expressed in USD, unless otherwise indicated.
Note: For primarily internationally listed companies, this market refers specifically to the shares traded in the United States on U.S. stock exchanges such as the NYSE or Nasdaq. In cases where the company trades in the U.S. through an American Depositary Receipt (ADR) or American Depositary Share (ADS), this market will refer to the ADR/ADS.


Will Bullish (BLSH) beat quarterly earnings?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Robinhood offers tokenized versions of U.S.-listed equities to U.S.-based users for trading on its platform or an affiliated app it controls by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET . Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. 

The tokenized equities must track the price of U.S. stocks such as those listed on the NYSE or Nasdaq. They may be structured as synthetic assets, wrapped instruments, or token representations of real equities, but do not need to confer voting rights or direct ownership.

To qualify, U.S.-based users must be able to buy or sell the tokenized equities during the market period. 

The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.


Will Robinhood launch stock tokens in the US before 2026?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Fully Diluted Valuation of Paradex's token is greater than the value specified in the title 1 day after launch. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No."

The token must be actively, publicly transferable and tradable to be considered a launch.

"1 day after launch" is defined as 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following launch. The resolution source for this market is the most liquid price source available. If Paradex (https://x.com/paradex) doesn't launch a token by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".

Airdrops by June 30?

Rabby$93,646 Vol.Nocircle xmark

Aleo$174,682 Vol.Nocircle xmark

Rainbow$64,059 Vol.Nocircle xmark

Blast$366,875 Vol.Yescircle check

Base$268,036 Vol.Nocircle xmark

Pudgy Penguins$44,213 Vol.Nocircle xmark

zkSync$1,735,370 Vol.Yescircle check

Drift$127,881 Vol.Yescircle check

Linea$81,060 Vol.Nocircle xmark

LayerZero$729,960 Vol.Yescircle check

MarginFi$37,491 Vol.Nocircle xmark

Berachain$94,596 Vol.Nocircle xmark

Scroll$138,680 Vol.Nocircle xmark

Eigenlayer$377,945 Vol.Nocircle xmark

Swell$121,928 Vol.Nocircle xmark

Taiko$501,529 Vol.Yescircle check

Puffer$70,679 Vol.Nocircle xmark

Zircuit$79,815 Vol.Nocircle xmark

Initia$50,193 Vol.Nocircle xmark

Astaria$7,738 Vol.Nocircle xmark

Argent$50,974 Vol.Nocircle xmark

pump.fun$22,156 Vol.Nocircle xmark

Jumper$31,308 Vol.Nocircle xmark

Zora$20,262 Vol.Nocircle xmark

Foundation$6,983 Vol.Nocircle xmark

Zerion$14,457 Vol.Nocircle xmark

PartyDAO$11,017 Vol.Nocircle xmark

Rysk$11,263 Vol.Nocircle xmark

MetaMask$113,799 Vol.Nocircle xmark

Mantle$17,310 Vol.Nocircle xmark

Backpack$26,769 Vol.Nocircle xmark

Phantom$43,720 Vol.Nocircle xmark

Magic Eden$26,247 Vol.Nocircle xmark

Azuro$77,550 Vol.Yescircle check

Market Context

Airdrops by June 30?

Rules

Airdrops by June 30?

Market Context

Airdrops by June 30?

About

Related

Rabby
$93,646 Vol.
No

Aleo
$174,682 Vol.
No

Rainbow
$64,059 Vol.
No

Blast
$366,875 Vol.
Yes

Base
$268,036 Vol.
No

Pudgy Penguins
$44,213 Vol.
No

zkSync
$1,735,370 Vol.
Yes

Drift
$127,881 Vol.
Yes

Linea
$81,060 Vol.
No

LayerZero
$729,960 Vol.
Yes

MarginFi
$37,491 Vol.
No

Berachain
$94,596 Vol.
No

Scroll
$138,680 Vol.
No

Eigenlayer
$377,945 Vol.
No

Swell
$121,928 Vol.
No

Taiko
$501,529 Vol.
Yes

Puffer
$70,679 Vol.
No

Zircuit
$79,815 Vol.
No

Initia
$50,193 Vol.
No

Astaria
$7,738 Vol.
No

Argent
$50,974 Vol.
No

pump.fun
$22,156 Vol.
No

Jumper
$31,308 Vol.
No

Zora
$20,262 Vol.
No

Foundation
$6,983 Vol.
No

Zerion
$14,457 Vol.
No

PartyDAO
$11,017 Vol.
No

Rysk
$11,263 Vol.
No

MetaMask
$113,799 Vol.
No

Mantle
$17,310 Vol.
No

Backpack
$26,769 Vol.
No

Phantom
$43,720 Vol.
No

Magic Eden
$26,247 Vol.
No

Azuro
$77,550 Vol.
Yes