Apple's (AAPL) share price surged over 3% intraday on May 1, 2026, to around $280 following its fiscal Q2 earnings beat on April 30, with revenue of $111.18 billion topping estimates of $109.66 billion and EPS at $2.01 versus $1.95 expected, fueled by robust iPhone and China sales. This post-earnings momentum has clustered Polymarket-implied probabilities evenly at 50% across the $250–$255, $260–$265, $265–$270, and $280–$285 bins for the May 4 weekly close, reflecting trader consensus on balanced upside from services growth and AI tailwinds against risks like supply constraints and broader tech sector volatility. Key swing factors include options expiration flows and macroeconomic data ahead of the May 4 close, with no major catalysts scheduled.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated<$250 46%
$290-$295 46%
$250-$255 45%
$255-$260 45%
NEW
NEW
May 8, 2026
<$250
46%
$250-$255
45%
$255-$260
45%
$260-$265
45%
$265-$270
45%
$270-$275
45%
$275-$280
45%
$280-$285
45%
$285-$290
45%
$290-$295
46%
>$295
45%
<$250 46%
$290-$295 46%
$250-$255 45%
$255-$260 45%
NEW
NEW
May 8, 2026
<$250
$0 Vol.
46%
$250-$255
$0 Vol.
45%
$255-$260
$0 Vol.
45%
$260-$265
$0 Vol.
45%
$265-$270
$0 Vol.
45%
$270-$275
$0 Vol.
45%
$275-$280
$0 Vol.
45%
$280-$285
$0 Vol.
45%
$285-$290
$0 Vol.
45%
$290-$295
$0 Vol.
46%
>$295
$0 Vol.
45%
This market will resolve according to the official closing price for Apple (AAPL) on the final day of trading of the specified week (normally Friday).
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final session of the week is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.
If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price.
In the event of a stock split, reverse stock split, or similar corporate action affecting the listed company during the listed time frame, this market will resolve based on split-adjusted prices as displayed on Yahoo Finance.
The target price will be adjusted proportionally to reflect any stock splits. Resolution will be based on the historical price data as shown on Yahoo Finance after any adjustments have been applied.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the Apple (AAPL) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/AAPL/history, published under "Historical Prices."Apple's (AAPL) share price surged over 3% intraday on May 1, 2026, to around $280 following its fiscal Q2 earnings beat on April 30, with revenue of $111.18 billion topping estimates of $109.66 billion and EPS at $2.01 versus $1.95 expected, fueled by robust iPhone and China sales. This post-earnings momentum has clustered Polymarket-implied probabilities evenly at 50% across the $250–$255, $260–$265, $265–$270, and $280–$285 bins for the May 4 weekly close, reflecting trader consensus on balanced upside from services growth and AI tailwinds against risks like supply constraints and broader tech sector volatility. Key swing factors include options expiration flows and macroeconomic data ahead of the May 4 close, with no major catalysts scheduled.
This market will resolve according to the official closing price for Apple (AAPL) on the final day of trading of the specified week (normally Friday).
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final session of the week is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.
If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price.
In the event of a stock split, reverse stock split, or similar corporate action affecting the listed company during the listed time frame, this market will resolve based on split-adjusted prices as displayed on Yahoo Finance.
The target price will be adjusted proportionally to reflect any stock splits. Resolution will be based on the historical price data as shown on Yahoo Finance after any adjustments have been applied.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the Apple (AAPL) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/AAPL/history, published under "Historical Prices."
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final session of the week is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.
If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price.
In the event of a stock split, reverse stock split, or similar corporate action affecting the listed company during the listed time frame, this market will resolve based on split-adjusted prices as displayed on Yahoo Finance.
The target price will be adjusted proportionally to reflect any stock splits. Resolution will be based on the historical price data as shown on Yahoo Finance after any adjustments have been applied.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the Apple (AAPL) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/AAPL/history, published under "Historical Prices."
Market Opened: May 1, 2026, 6:39 PM ET
Volume
$0End Date
May 8, 2026Market Opened
May 1, 2026, 6:39 PM ETResolution Source
https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/AAPL/historyResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the official closing price for Apple (AAPL) on the final day of trading of the specified week (normally Friday).
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final session of the week is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.
If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price.
In the event of a stock split, reverse stock split, or similar corporate action affecting the listed company during the listed time frame, this market will resolve based on split-adjusted prices as displayed on Yahoo Finance.
The target price will be adjusted proportionally to reflect any stock splits. Resolution will be based on the historical price data as shown on Yahoo Finance after any adjustments have been applied.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the Apple (AAPL) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/AAPL/history, published under "Historical Prices."Apple's (AAPL) share price surged over 3% intraday on May 1, 2026, to around $280 following its fiscal Q2 earnings beat on April 30, with revenue of $111.18 billion topping estimates of $109.66 billion and EPS at $2.01 versus $1.95 expected, fueled by robust iPhone and China sales. This post-earnings momentum has clustered Polymarket-implied probabilities evenly at 50% across the $250–$255, $260–$265, $265–$270, and $280–$285 bins for the May 4 weekly close, reflecting trader consensus on balanced upside from services growth and AI tailwinds against risks like supply constraints and broader tech sector volatility. Key swing factors include options expiration flows and macroeconomic data ahead of the May 4 close, with no major catalysts scheduled.
This market will resolve according to the official closing price for Apple (AAPL) on the final day of trading of the specified week (normally Friday).
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final session of the week is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.
If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price.
In the event of a stock split, reverse stock split, or similar corporate action affecting the listed company during the listed time frame, this market will resolve based on split-adjusted prices as displayed on Yahoo Finance.
The target price will be adjusted proportionally to reflect any stock splits. Resolution will be based on the historical price data as shown on Yahoo Finance after any adjustments have been applied.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the Apple (AAPL) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/AAPL/history, published under "Historical Prices."
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final session of the week is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.
If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price.
In the event of a stock split, reverse stock split, or similar corporate action affecting the listed company during the listed time frame, this market will resolve based on split-adjusted prices as displayed on Yahoo Finance.
The target price will be adjusted proportionally to reflect any stock splits. Resolution will be based on the historical price data as shown on Yahoo Finance after any adjustments have been applied.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the Apple (AAPL) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/AAPL/history, published under "Historical Prices."
Volume
$0End Date
May 8, 2026Market Opened
May 1, 2026, 6:39 PM ETResolution Source
https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/AAPL/historyResolver
0x69c47De9D...Apple's (AAPL) share price surged over 3% intraday on May 1, 2026, to around $280 following its fiscal Q2 earnings beat on April 30, with revenue of $111.18 billion topping estimates of $109.66 billion and EPS at $2.01 versus $1.95 expected, fueled by robust iPhone and China sales. This post-earnings momentum has clustered Polymarket-implied probabilities evenly at 50% across the $250–$255, $260–$265, $265–$270, and $280–$285 bins for the May 4 weekly close, reflecting trader consensus on balanced upside from services growth and AI tailwinds against risks like supply constraints and broader tech sector volatility. Key swing factors include options expiration flows and macroeconomic data ahead of the May 4 close, with no major catalysts scheduled.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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