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538: Will voters prefer Republicans or Democrats on September 9?

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538: Will voters prefer Republicans or Democrats on September 9?

If the FiveThirtyEight graph titled "Do voters want Republicans or Democrats in Congress?" shows Democrats at a greater percentage of support than Republicans for the date of September 9, 2022, at check time, this market will resolve to "Democrats". If the same graph shows Republicans at a greater percentage of support than Democrats for September 9, 2022, at the time of the check, this market will resolve to "Republicans". If the same graph shows Democrats and Republicans at an equal percentage of support for the resolution date, this market will resolve to 50-50. The resolution source for this market is the FiveThirtyEight "Do voters want Republicans or Democrats in Congress?" graph, with the "POLL TYPE" option set to "Generic ballot" and the "CYCLE" option set to "2022". The graph is presently located at https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/generic-ballot/. Changes in the methodology by which FiveThirtyEight calculates this graph's figures will have no bearing on the resolution of this market. This resolution source for this market will be checked on September 10, 2022 at 12 PM ET. This market can only resolve after this check has been performed. If data for the date of September 9 is not available on this market's check time, the resolution source will be checked every six hours with the final check at September 11, 12 PM ET. If data for September 9, 2022 remains unavailable at the final check time, this market will resolve based on the value of the data point for the nearest prior available day. Please note the resolution source reports the rating value to only one decimal point (e.g. 42.8%, 33.9%, etc). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.

If the FiveThirtyEight graph titled "Do voters want Republicans or Democrats in Congress?" shows Democrats at a greater percentage of support than Republicans for the date of September 9, 2022, at check time, this market will resolve to "Democrats". If the same graph shows Republicans at a greater percentage of support than Democrats for September 9, 2022, at the time of the check, this market will resolve to "Republicans". If the same graph shows Democrats and Republicans at an equal percentage of support for the resolution date, this market will resolve to 50-50. The resolution source for this market is the FiveThirtyEight "Do voters want Republicans or Democrats in Congress?" graph, with the "POLL TYPE" option set to "Generic ballot" and the "CYCLE" option set to "2022". The graph is presently located at https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/generic-ballot/. Changes in the methodology by which FiveThirtyEight calculates this graph's figures will have no bearing on the resolution of this market. This resolution source for this market will be checked on September 10, 2022 at 12 PM ET. This market can only resolve after this check has been performed. If data for the date of September 9 is not available on this market's check time, the resolution source will be checked every six hours with the final check at September 11, 12 PM ET. If data for September 9, 2022 remains unavailable at the final check time, this market will resolve based on the value of the data point for the nearest prior available day. Please note the resolution source reports the rating value to only one decimal point (e.g. 42.8%, 33.9%, etc). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.

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Frequently Asked Questions

"538: Will voters prefer Republicans or Democrats on September 9?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 2 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "538: Will voters prefer Republicans or Democrats on September 9?" at 100%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 100¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 100% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

"538: Will voters prefer Republicans or Democrats on September 9?" is a newly created market on Polymarket, launched on Aug 23, 2022. As an early market, this is your opportunity to be among the first traders to set the odds and establish the market's initial price signals. You can also bookmark this page to track volume and trading activity as the market gains traction over time.

To trade on "538: Will voters prefer Republicans or Democrats on September 9?," browse the 2 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "538: Will voters prefer Republicans or Democrats on September 9?" is "538: Will voters prefer Republicans or Democrats on September 9?" at 100%, meaning the market assigns a 100% chance to that outcome. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "538: Will voters prefer Republicans or Democrats on September 9?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.