Top-seeded Arizona, Michigan, Duke, and Illinois advanced through a chalk-heavy Sweet 16, fueling trader consensus with Arizona at 27% implied probability, Michigan at 23%, and Duke at 22% in a tight race for the 2026 NCAA Tournament title. Arizona's balanced scoring erupted for 109 points in a rout, showcasing Koa Peat's emergence, while Michigan dominated Alabama 90-77 behind consistent depth. Duke survived gritty battles against Siena, TCU, and St. John's despite lingering foot injury concerns for Caleb Foster and Patrick Ngongba II, and Illinois stifled Houston 65-55 to punch their Elite Eight ticket. No. 1 seeds' paths remain favorable amid minimal upsets, but looming matchups like today's Arizona-Illinois tilt underscore the bracket's volatility heading to the Final Four.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · UpdatedArizona 26.9%
Michigan 24%
Duke 22%
Illinois 12.0%
$22,098,972 Vol.
$22,098,972 Vol.
Arizona
27%
Michigan
24%
Duke
22%
Illinois
12%
Connecticut
6%
Purdue
5%
Tennessee
2%
Iowa
1%
Arizona 26.9%
Michigan 24%
Duke 22%
Illinois 12.0%
$22,098,972 Vol.
$22,098,972 Vol.
Arizona
27%
Michigan
24%
Duke
22%
Illinois
12%
Connecticut
6%
Purdue
5%
Tennessee
2%
Iowa
1%
If it is impossible for a team to win the 2026 NCAA Men’s Basketball Tournament according to the rules of the competition (i.e. they are eliminated) , the corresponding market will immediately resolve to “No”.
If for any reason no winner is declared by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be information from the NCAA.
Market Opened: Oct 31, 2025, 7:31 PM ET
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...If it is impossible for a team to win the 2026 NCAA Men’s Basketball Tournament according to the rules of the competition (i.e. they are eliminated) , the corresponding market will immediately resolve to “No”.
If for any reason no winner is declared by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be information from the NCAA.
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...Top-seeded Arizona, Michigan, Duke, and Illinois advanced through a chalk-heavy Sweet 16, fueling trader consensus with Arizona at 27% implied probability, Michigan at 23%, and Duke at 22% in a tight race for the 2026 NCAA Tournament title. Arizona's balanced scoring erupted for 109 points in a rout, showcasing Koa Peat's emergence, while Michigan dominated Alabama 90-77 behind consistent depth. Duke survived gritty battles against Siena, TCU, and St. John's despite lingering foot injury concerns for Caleb Foster and Patrick Ngongba II, and Illinois stifled Houston 65-55 to punch their Elite Eight ticket. No. 1 seeds' paths remain favorable amid minimal upsets, but looming matchups like today's Arizona-Illinois tilt underscore the bracket's volatility heading to the Final Four.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
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