Trader consensus favors Arizona (27%), Michigan (23%), and Duke (21%) atop the 2026 NCAA Tournament market entering Elite Eight weekend, reflecting their unchallenged paths as top seeds through a chalk-heavy Sweet 16 capped by Michigan's 90-77 rout of Alabama, Duke's gritty 80-75 survival over St. John's, and Arizona's steady advancement alongside Purdue. Illinois (13%) surges on a signature upset of Houston, buoyed by Big Ten depth despite a depleted bench from multiple rotation injuries. The tight clustering underscores razor-thin edges in looming matchups like Arizona-Purdue and all-Big Ten Illinois-Iowa, where recent form, home-region advantages in San Jose and Houston, and absence of cinderella threats amplify upset potential for UConn (5%), Tennessee (2%), and Iowa (1%) amid no major injury disruptions in the last 48 hours.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · UpdatedArizona 27.4%
Michigan 24%
Duke 22%
Illinois 13.2%
$22,330,696 Vol.
$22,330,696 Vol.
Arizona
27%
Michigan
24%
Duke
22%
Illinois
13%
Purdue
6%
Connecticut
5%
Tennessee
3%
Iowa
1%
Arizona 27.4%
Michigan 24%
Duke 22%
Illinois 13.2%
$22,330,696 Vol.
$22,330,696 Vol.
Arizona
27%
Michigan
24%
Duke
22%
Illinois
13%
Purdue
6%
Connecticut
5%
Tennessee
3%
Iowa
1%
If it is impossible for a team to win the 2026 NCAA Men’s Basketball Tournament according to the rules of the competition (i.e. they are eliminated) , the corresponding market will immediately resolve to “No”.
If for any reason no winner is declared by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be information from the NCAA.
Market Opened: Oct 31, 2025, 7:31 PM ET
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...If it is impossible for a team to win the 2026 NCAA Men’s Basketball Tournament according to the rules of the competition (i.e. they are eliminated) , the corresponding market will immediately resolve to “No”.
If for any reason no winner is declared by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be information from the NCAA.
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus favors Arizona (27%), Michigan (23%), and Duke (21%) atop the 2026 NCAA Tournament market entering Elite Eight weekend, reflecting their unchallenged paths as top seeds through a chalk-heavy Sweet 16 capped by Michigan's 90-77 rout of Alabama, Duke's gritty 80-75 survival over St. John's, and Arizona's steady advancement alongside Purdue. Illinois (13%) surges on a signature upset of Houston, buoyed by Big Ten depth despite a depleted bench from multiple rotation injuries. The tight clustering underscores razor-thin edges in looming matchups like Arizona-Purdue and all-Big Ten Illinois-Iowa, where recent form, home-region advantages in San Jose and Houston, and absence of cinderella threats amplify upset potential for UConn (5%), Tennessee (2%), and Iowa (1%) amid no major injury disruptions in the last 48 hours.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated


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