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2026 FIFA World Cup Winner

Market icon

2026 FIFA World Cup Winner

Spain 16.0%

France 13.1%

England 11.8%

Argentina 9.2%

Polymarket

$481,575,096 Vol.

Spain 16.0%

France 13.1%

England 11.8%

Argentina 9.2%

Polymarket

$481,575,096 Vol.

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Spain

$7,768,018 Vol.

16%

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France

$6,214,317 Vol.

13%

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England

$7,661,898 Vol.

12%

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Argentina

$7,942,631 Vol.

9%

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Brazil

$7,884,875 Vol.

9%

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Portugal

$8,874,046 Vol.

7%

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Germany

$7,243,471 Vol.

5%

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Netherlands

$9,585,157 Vol.

3%

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Norway

$7,801,600 Vol.

3%

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Belgium

$8,227,278 Vol.

2%

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Japan

$9,672,760 Vol.

2%

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Colombia

$7,557,387 Vol.

2%

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USA

$4,827,226 Vol.

2%

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Morocco

$9,719,482 Vol.

2%

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Uruguay

$8,391,284 Vol.

1%

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Mexico

$7,238,273 Vol.

1%

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Croatia

$8,123,361 Vol.

1%

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Switzerland

$9,072,597 Vol.

1%

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Ecuador

$9,314,202 Vol.

1%

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Turkiye

$978,847 Vol.

1%

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Senegal

$8,957,726 Vol.

1%

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Sweden

$722,553 Vol.

1%

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Canada

$12,042,670 Vol.

1%

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Austria

$10,856,084 Vol.

1%

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South Korea

$14,045,004 Vol.

<1%

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Bosnia-Herzegovina

$813,591 Vol.

<1%

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Paraguay

$12,356,117 Vol.

<1%

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Scotland

$12,575,812 Vol.

<1%

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Ivory Coast

$9,713,529 Vol.

<1%

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Egypt

$11,386,531 Vol.

<1%

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Ghana

$10,914,548 Vol.

<1%

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Algeria

$11,512,581 Vol.

<1%

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Tunisia

$11,795,193 Vol.

<1%

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Cezchia

$240,996 Vol.

<1%

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Australia

$8,593,606 Vol.

<1%

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Saudi Arabia

$18,101,370 Vol.

<1%

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New Zealand

$17,836,898 Vol.

<1%

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Haiti

$12,993,935 Vol.

<1%

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Jordan

$17,020,529 Vol.

<1%

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Iran

$12,032,777 Vol.

<1%

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Uzbekistan

$28,190,330 Vol.

<1%

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Panama

$1,657,053 Vol.

<1%

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Iraq

$2,310,519 Vol.

<1%

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South Africa

$20,054,898 Vol.

<1%

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Congo DR

$2,016,712 Vol.

<1%

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Cape Verde

$10,975,064 Vol.

<1%

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Qatar

$13,972,070 Vol.

<1%

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Curaçao

$24,936,702 Vol.

<1%

This market will resolve according to the national team that wins the 2026 FIFA World Cup. If at any point it becomes impossible for this team to win the FIFA World Cup based on the rules of FIFA (e.g., they are eliminated in the knockout stage), this market will resolve immediately to “No”. If the 2026 FIFA World Cup is permanently canceled or has not been completed by October 13, 2026, 11:59 PM this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source will be official information from FIFA, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Spain tops trader consensus at 16% implied probability to win the 2026 FIFA World Cup, propelled by ascending to FIFA world number one in the latest April rankings after a flawless UEFA qualifier campaign and dominant recent form in Nations League fixtures. France (13.1%) and England (11.8%) trail closely, buoyed by consistent powerhouse performances and star-laden squads, while defending champions Argentina (9.2%) and traditional giant Brazil (8.6%) maintain strong positioning amid CONMEBOL's grueling qualifiers. The tight clustering among top contenders reflects all major favorites securing qualification intact by late March play-offs—without disruptive upsets—against an expanded 48-team field introducing surprises like Curaçao and Uzbekistan, heightening knockout-stage volatility just 70 days from kickoff.

This market will resolve according to the national team that wins the 2026 FIFA World Cup.

If at any point it becomes impossible for this team to win the FIFA World Cup based on the rules of FIFA (e.g., they are eliminated in the knockout stage), this market will resolve immediately to “No”.

If the 2026 FIFA World Cup is permanently canceled or has not been completed by October 13, 2026, 11:59 PM this market will resolve to “Other”.

The primary resolution source will be official information from FIFA, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$481,575,096
End Date
Jul 20, 2026
Market Opened
Jul 2, 2025, 6:06 PM ET
This market will resolve according to the national team that wins the 2026 FIFA World Cup. If at any point it becomes impossible for this team to win the FIFA World Cup based on the rules of FIFA (e.g., they are eliminated in the knockout stage), this market will resolve immediately to “No”. If the 2026 FIFA World Cup is permanently canceled or has not been completed by October 13, 2026, 11:59 PM this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source will be official information from FIFA, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve according to the national team that wins the 2026 FIFA World Cup. If at any point it becomes impossible for this team to win the FIFA World Cup based on the rules of FIFA (e.g., they are eliminated in the knockout stage), this market will resolve immediately to “No”. If the 2026 FIFA World Cup is permanently canceled or has not been completed by October 13, 2026, 11:59 PM this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source will be official information from FIFA, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Spain tops trader consensus at 16% implied probability to win the 2026 FIFA World Cup, propelled by ascending to FIFA world number one in the latest April rankings after a flawless UEFA qualifier campaign and dominant recent form in Nations League fixtures. France (13.1%) and England (11.8%) trail closely, buoyed by consistent powerhouse performances and star-laden squads, while defending champions Argentina (9.2%) and traditional giant Brazil (8.6%) maintain strong positioning amid CONMEBOL's grueling qualifiers. The tight clustering among top contenders reflects all major favorites securing qualification intact by late March play-offs—without disruptive upsets—against an expanded 48-team field introducing surprises like Curaçao and Uzbekistan, heightening knockout-stage volatility just 70 days from kickoff.

This market will resolve according to the national team that wins the 2026 FIFA World Cup.

If at any point it becomes impossible for this team to win the FIFA World Cup based on the rules of FIFA (e.g., they are eliminated in the knockout stage), this market will resolve immediately to “No”.

If the 2026 FIFA World Cup is permanently canceled or has not been completed by October 13, 2026, 11:59 PM this market will resolve to “Other”.

The primary resolution source will be official information from FIFA, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$481,575,096
End Date
Jul 20, 2026
Market Opened
Jul 2, 2025, 6:06 PM ET
This market will resolve according to the national team that wins the 2026 FIFA World Cup. If at any point it becomes impossible for this team to win the FIFA World Cup based on the rules of FIFA (e.g., they are eliminated in the knockout stage), this market will resolve immediately to “No”. If the 2026 FIFA World Cup is permanently canceled or has not been completed by October 13, 2026, 11:59 PM this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source will be official information from FIFA, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

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Frequently Asked Questions

"2026 FIFA World Cup Winner " is a prediction market on Polymarket with 50+ possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Spain" at 16%, followed by "France" at 13%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 16¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 16% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "2026 FIFA World Cup Winner " has generated $481.6 million in total trading volume since the market launched on Jul 2, 2025. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "2026 FIFA World Cup Winner ," browse the 50+ available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "2026 FIFA World Cup Winner " is "Spain" at 16%, meaning the market assigns a 16% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "France" at 13%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "2026 FIFA World Cup Winner " define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.