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Sports·Chess

2026 FIDE Candidates Tournament: Winner

Market icon
Sports·Chess

2026 FIDE Candidates Tournament: Winner

Fabiano Caruana 40%

Praggnanandhaa R 18%

Javokhir Sindarov 18%

Hikaru Nakamura 10%

Polymarket

$1,814,781 Vol.

Fabiano Caruana 40%

Praggnanandhaa R 18%

Javokhir Sindarov 18%

Hikaru Nakamura 10%

Polymarket

$1,814,781 Vol.

Fabiano Caruana

$180,262 Vol.

40%

Praggnanandhaa R

$128,312 Vol.

18%

Javokhir Sindarov

$144,612 Vol.

18%

Hikaru Nakamura

$220,369 Vol.

10%

Wei Yi

$263,239 Vol.

8%

Anish Giri

$140,815 Vol.

3%

Matthias Bluebaum

$183,060 Vol.

3%

Andrey Esipenko

$554,219 Vol.

2%

This market will resolve to the player that wins the 2026 FIDE Candidates Tournament scheduled for March 29 - April 16, 2026. If at any point it becomes impossible for a listed player to win the 2026 FIDE Candidates Tournament per the rules of the FIDE, the corresponding market will resolve to “No”. If the 2026 FIDE Candidates Tournament is cancelled, or postponed after April 30, 2026, or there is otherwise no winner declared within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source will be official information from FIDE; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Fabiano Caruana leads trader consensus at 40% implied probability for the 2026 FIDE Candidates Tournament winner, reinforced by his Round 1 upset victory over highest-rated qualifier Hikaru Nakamura—ending a historical drought—and subsequent Round 2 draw versus Anish Giri, leveraging his status as 2024 FIDE Circuit winner and consistent top-three world ranking around 2795. Rising stars R Praggnanandhaa (17%), the 2025 FIDE Circuit leader, and Javokhir Sindarov (16.5%), 2025 World Cup champion with fresh March rating surge to 2745 and world #12, surged via Round 1 triumphs over Giri and Andrey Esipenko before Round 2 draws preserved their co-lead at 1.5/2. Nakamura sits at 10% post-Round 1 loss despite 2810 peak rating, while others trail on early setbacks in the Paphos, Cyprus double round-robin.

This market will resolve to the player that wins the 2026 FIDE Candidates Tournament scheduled for March 29 - April 16, 2026.

If at any point it becomes impossible for a listed player to win the 2026 FIDE Candidates Tournament per the rules of the FIDE, the corresponding market will resolve to “No”.

If the 2026 FIDE Candidates Tournament is cancelled, or postponed after April 30, 2026, or there is otherwise no winner declared within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “Other”.

The primary resolution source will be official information from FIDE; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$1,814,781
End Date
Apr 17, 2026
Market Opened
Mar 18, 2026, 12:00 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve to the player that wins the 2026 FIDE Candidates Tournament scheduled for March 29 - April 16, 2026. If at any point it becomes impossible for a listed player to win the 2026 FIDE Candidates Tournament per the rules of the FIDE, the corresponding market will resolve to “No”. If the 2026 FIDE Candidates Tournament is cancelled, or postponed after April 30, 2026, or there is otherwise no winner declared within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source will be official information from FIDE; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve to the player that wins the 2026 FIDE Candidates Tournament scheduled for March 29 - April 16, 2026. If at any point it becomes impossible for a listed player to win the 2026 FIDE Candidates Tournament per the rules of the FIDE, the corresponding market will resolve to “No”. If the 2026 FIDE Candidates Tournament is cancelled, or postponed after April 30, 2026, or there is otherwise no winner declared within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source will be official information from FIDE; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Fabiano Caruana leads trader consensus at 40% implied probability for the 2026 FIDE Candidates Tournament winner, reinforced by his Round 1 upset victory over highest-rated qualifier Hikaru Nakamura—ending a historical drought—and subsequent Round 2 draw versus Anish Giri, leveraging his status as 2024 FIDE Circuit winner and consistent top-three world ranking around 2795. Rising stars R Praggnanandhaa (17%), the 2025 FIDE Circuit leader, and Javokhir Sindarov (16.5%), 2025 World Cup champion with fresh March rating surge to 2745 and world #12, surged via Round 1 triumphs over Giri and Andrey Esipenko before Round 2 draws preserved their co-lead at 1.5/2. Nakamura sits at 10% post-Round 1 loss despite 2810 peak rating, while others trail on early setbacks in the Paphos, Cyprus double round-robin.

This market will resolve to the player that wins the 2026 FIDE Candidates Tournament scheduled for March 29 - April 16, 2026.

If at any point it becomes impossible for a listed player to win the 2026 FIDE Candidates Tournament per the rules of the FIDE, the corresponding market will resolve to “No”.

If the 2026 FIDE Candidates Tournament is cancelled, or postponed after April 30, 2026, or there is otherwise no winner declared within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “Other”.

The primary resolution source will be official information from FIDE; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$1,814,781
End Date
Apr 17, 2026
Market Opened
Mar 18, 2026, 12:00 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve to the player that wins the 2026 FIDE Candidates Tournament scheduled for March 29 - April 16, 2026. If at any point it becomes impossible for a listed player to win the 2026 FIDE Candidates Tournament per the rules of the FIDE, the corresponding market will resolve to “No”. If the 2026 FIDE Candidates Tournament is cancelled, or postponed after April 30, 2026, or there is otherwise no winner declared within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source will be official information from FIDE; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

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Frequently Asked Questions

"2026 FIDE Candidates Tournament: Winner" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 8 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Fabiano Caruana" at 40%, followed by "Praggnanandhaa R" at 18%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 40¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 40% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "2026 FIDE Candidates Tournament: Winner" has generated $1.8 million in total trading volume since the market launched on Mar 18, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "2026 FIDE Candidates Tournament: Winner," browse the 8 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "2026 FIDE Candidates Tournament: Winner" is "Fabiano Caruana" at 40%, meaning the market assigns a 40% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Praggnanandhaa R" at 18%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "2026 FIDE Candidates Tournament: Winner" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.