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Sports·Chess

Hikaru Nakamura vs. Anish Giri - FIDE Candidates 2026 Open (Round 3)

Market icon
Sports·Chess

Hikaru Nakamura vs. Anish Giri - FIDE Candidates 2026 Open (Round 3)

Anish Giri 50%

Hikaru Nakamura 0

Draw (Hikaru Nakamura vs. Anish Giri) 0

Polymarket
NEW

Anish Giri 50%

Hikaru Nakamura 0

Draw (Hikaru Nakamura vs. Anish Giri) 0

Polymarket
NEW

Hikaru Nakamura

$131 Vol.

55%

Draw (Hikaru Nakamura vs. Anish Giri)

$785 Vol.

50%

Anish Giri

$168 Vol.

50%

In the upcoming match, scheduled for March 31, 2026 If Hikaru Nakamura wins, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If the match is postponed, this market will remain open until the match has been completed. If the match is canceled entirely, with no make-up match, this market will resolve "No". The primary resolution source for this market is the official statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 2 hours after the event's conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead.In the upcoming match, scheduled for March 31, 2026 If the match ends in a draw, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If the match is postponed, this market will remain open until the match has been completed. If the match is canceled entirely, with no make-up match, this market will resolve to "Yes". The primary resolution source for this market is the official statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 2 hours after the event's conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead.In the upcoming match, scheduled for March 31, 2026 If Anish Giri wins, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If the match is postponed, this market will remain open until the match has been completed. If the match is canceled entirely, with no make-up match, this market will resolve "No". The primary resolution source for this market is the official statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 2 hours after the event's conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead.Trader consensus heavily favors a draw at 69.5% for Hikaru Nakamura vs. Anish Giri in FIDE Candidates 2026 Open Round 3, reflecting the depth of elite classical chess preparation where both players, tied at 0.5 points after two rounds, prioritize solidity amid pressure to chase leaders Caruana, Praggnanandhaa, and Sindarov (1.5 points each). Nakamura's marginal win probability edge (29% over Giri's 28%) aligns with his top ELO (2810 vs. Giri's 2753) and superior historical field score (54.6% vs. Giri's 50.5%), bolstered by rebounding from a Round 1 loss to Caruana with a Round 2 draw against Esipenko, while Giri drew Caruana yesterday in a tense encounter showcasing his renowned defensive resilience.

In the upcoming match, scheduled for March 31, 2026
If Hikaru Nakamura wins, this market will resolve to "Yes".
Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If the match is postponed, this market will remain open until the match has been completed.
If the match is canceled entirely, with no make-up match, this market will resolve "No".

The primary resolution source for this market is the official statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 2 hours after the event's conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead.
Volume
$1,083
End Date
Apr 7, 2026
Market Opened
Mar 30, 2026, 10:09 PM ET

Resolution Source

https://lichess.org/

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
In the upcoming match, scheduled for March 31, 2026 If Hikaru Nakamura wins, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If the match is postponed, this market will remain open until the match has been completed. If the match is canceled entirely, with no make-up match, this market will resolve "No". The primary resolution source for this market is the official statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 2 hours after the event's conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead.
In the upcoming match, scheduled for March 31, 2026 If Hikaru Nakamura wins, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If the match is postponed, this market will remain open until the match has been completed. If the match is canceled entirely, with no make-up match, this market will resolve "No". The primary resolution source for this market is the official statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 2 hours after the event's conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead.In the upcoming match, scheduled for March 31, 2026 If the match ends in a draw, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If the match is postponed, this market will remain open until the match has been completed. If the match is canceled entirely, with no make-up match, this market will resolve to "Yes". The primary resolution source for this market is the official statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 2 hours after the event's conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead.In the upcoming match, scheduled for March 31, 2026 If Anish Giri wins, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If the match is postponed, this market will remain open until the match has been completed. If the match is canceled entirely, with no make-up match, this market will resolve "No". The primary resolution source for this market is the official statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 2 hours after the event's conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead.Trader consensus heavily favors a draw at 69.5% for Hikaru Nakamura vs. Anish Giri in FIDE Candidates 2026 Open Round 3, reflecting the depth of elite classical chess preparation where both players, tied at 0.5 points after two rounds, prioritize solidity amid pressure to chase leaders Caruana, Praggnanandhaa, and Sindarov (1.5 points each). Nakamura's marginal win probability edge (29% over Giri's 28%) aligns with his top ELO (2810 vs. Giri's 2753) and superior historical field score (54.6% vs. Giri's 50.5%), bolstered by rebounding from a Round 1 loss to Caruana with a Round 2 draw against Esipenko, while Giri drew Caruana yesterday in a tense encounter showcasing his renowned defensive resilience.

In the upcoming match, scheduled for March 31, 2026
If Hikaru Nakamura wins, this market will resolve to "Yes".
Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If the match is postponed, this market will remain open until the match has been completed.
If the match is canceled entirely, with no make-up match, this market will resolve "No".

The primary resolution source for this market is the official statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 2 hours after the event's conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead.
Volume
$1,083
End Date
Apr 7, 2026
Market Opened
Mar 30, 2026, 10:09 PM ET

Resolution Source

https://lichess.org/

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
In the upcoming match, scheduled for March 31, 2026 If Hikaru Nakamura wins, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If the match is postponed, this market will remain open until the match has been completed. If the match is canceled entirely, with no make-up match, this market will resolve "No". The primary resolution source for this market is the official statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 2 hours after the event's conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead.

Related

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Will Praggnanandhaa R win on 2026-03-31 at FIDE Candidates 2026 Open?

51%
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Will Fabiano Caruana win on 2026-03-31 at FIDE Candidates 2026 Open?

50%
Market icon

Will Matthias Bluebaum vs. Andrey Esipenko end in a draw?

50%

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Hikaru Nakamura vs. Anish Giri - FIDE Candidates 2026 Open (Round 3)" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 3 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Hikaru Nakamura" at 56%, followed by "Draw (Hikaru Nakamura vs. Anish Giri)" at 50%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 56¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 56% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

"Hikaru Nakamura vs. Anish Giri - FIDE Candidates 2026 Open (Round 3)" is a newly created market on Polymarket, launched on Mar 31, 2026. As an early market, this is your opportunity to be among the first traders to set the odds and establish the market's initial price signals. You can also bookmark this page to track volume and trading activity as the market gains traction over time.

To trade on "Hikaru Nakamura vs. Anish Giri - FIDE Candidates 2026 Open (Round 3)," browse the 3 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Hikaru Nakamura vs. Anish Giri - FIDE Candidates 2026 Open (Round 3)" is "Hikaru Nakamura" at 56%, meaning the market assigns a 56% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Draw (Hikaru Nakamura vs. Anish Giri)" at 50%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Hikaru Nakamura vs. Anish Giri - FIDE Candidates 2026 Open (Round 3)" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.