Trader sentiment on Polymarket heavily favors a March Crude Oil (CL) settlement above $90, with 76.5% implied probability, propelled by escalating geopolitical risks tightening global supply. Recent Ukrainian drone strikes have idled over 10% of Russian refining capacity, curbing exports, while Houthi attacks in the Red Sea inflate shipping premiums and reroute tankers. OPEC+ extended voluntary cuts of 2.2 million bpd through Q1 2025 provide a supportive floor, amid EIA-reported U.S. crude inventories at four-year lows. Market-implied odds reflect trader consensus wagering on sustained winter demand and potential Middle East escalation, though ample non-OPEC supply and China's uneven recovery cap upside risks ahead of Thursday's EIA data.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · Actualizado$90+ 75%
$85-$90 11%
$80-$85 6%
$75-$80 4.0%
$602,884 Vol.
$602,884 Vol.
<$60
1%
$60-$65
1%
$65-$70
1%
$70-$75
3%
$75-$80
4%
$80-$85
6%
$85-$90
11%
$90+
75%
$90+ 75%
$85-$90 11%
$80-$85 6%
$75-$80 4.0%
$602,884 Vol.
$602,884 Vol.
<$60
1%
$60-$65
1%
$65-$70
1%
$70-$75
3%
$75-$80
4%
$80-$85
6%
$85-$90
11%
$90+
75%
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official settlement price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution. If no settlement price is published for that session, the market will use the most recent published settlement for the Active Month during March.
For CME Crude Oil (CL) futures contracts, the active month is the nearest of the contract months listed. The active month becomes a non-active month effective two business days prior to the spot month expiration. For example; if the spot month expires on a Friday the next listed contract will be considered the Active Month on the Wednesday prior to the spot month expiration.
Only the Active Month's official settlement price published by CME Group will be considered. Intraday trades, highs, lows, bids, offers, midpoint values, or indicative prices do not count.
Note that the settlement price may differ from the last traded price. CME's methodology to determine the settlement price can vary by commodity and contract.
Only days during March on which CME publishes an official settlement price for the Active Month will be included. Days without settlement prices (weekends, holidays, or market closures) are ignored.
This market will resolve based on the settlement price as it appears on the CME settlement page at the time it is first published for the relevant trading day, regardless of any later corrections or updates.
The resolution source for this market is the CME Group website — specifically, the daily "Settlement" price for the Active Month of Crude Oil (CL) futures.
Mercado abierto: Mar 3, 2026, 7:42 PM ET
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader sentiment on Polymarket heavily favors a March Crude Oil (CL) settlement above $90, with 76.5% implied probability, propelled by escalating geopolitical risks tightening global supply. Recent Ukrainian drone strikes have idled over 10% of Russian refining capacity, curbing exports, while Houthi attacks in the Red Sea inflate shipping premiums and reroute tankers. OPEC+ extended voluntary cuts of 2.2 million bpd through Q1 2025 provide a supportive floor, amid EIA-reported U.S. crude inventories at four-year lows. Market-implied odds reflect trader consensus wagering on sustained winter demand and potential Middle East escalation, though ample non-OPEC supply and China's uneven recovery cap upside risks ahead of Thursday's EIA data.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · Actualizado
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