Trader sentiment on UK annual GDP growth for 2026 reflects deep uncertainty, with market-implied probabilities closely split between contraction at 33.5% and stagnation in the 0-1% band at 27.5%, driven by the Office for National Statistics' March 13 report of flat monthly GDP in January—worse than expected—confirming a feeble 0.2% three-month gain amid escalating global risks like energy shocks from Middle East tensions. This weak Q1 start has overshadowed official projections, including the Office for Budget Responsibility's revised 1.1% forecast (March 3) and OECD's downgrade to 0.7%, as traders price in persistent cyclical headwinds from softening labor markets and sticky inflation. Key swing factors include upcoming February GDP data (mid-April) and Bank of England May MPC decisions on rate cuts, which could tip the balance toward mild recovery in the 1-2% range at 20.5%.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · Actualizado<0 34%
1-2% 11%
3-4% 10.0%
4-5% 9%
NUEVO
NUEVO
12 feb 2027
<0
34%
0-1%
28%
1-2%
21%
2-3%
6%
3-4%
10%
4-5%
9%
5% o más
6%
<0 34%
1-2% 11%
3-4% 10.0%
4-5% 9%
NUEVO
NUEVO
12 feb 2027
<0
$229 Vol.
34%
0-1%
$248 Vol.
28%
1-2%
$205 Vol.
21%
2-3%
$206 Vol.
6%
3-4%
$193 Vol.
10%
4-5%
$283 Vol.
9%
5% o más
$230 Vol.
6%
This market will resolve according to the estimate of UK real gross domestic product (GDP) across the year of 2026 (% change) in the "GDP First quarterly estimate, UK" release for October-December (Q4) of 2026, scheduled for February 12, 2027.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/bulletins/gdpfirstquarterlyestimateuk/previousreleases
The estimate of UK real GDP across the year of 2026 is an estimate of the rate at which real GDP changed, on average, throughout the year of 2026. The relevant figure may be found in “Table 1: Headline national accounts indicators for the UK” under “GDP (Chained Volume Measures)” for the relevant year, or elsewhere in the release.
If no data for the estimate of UK real gross domestic product (GDP) across the year of 2026 is included in this release, this market will resolve according to the rate at which UK real gross domestic product (GDP) changed in Q4 compared with the same quarter of the previous year. If neither figure is released by the date the next quarter's GDP first quarterly estimate is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on quarterly data (compared to the same quarter in the previous year) from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader sentiment on UK annual GDP growth for 2026 reflects deep uncertainty, with market-implied probabilities closely split between contraction at 33.5% and stagnation in the 0-1% band at 27.5%, driven by the Office for National Statistics' March 13 report of flat monthly GDP in January—worse than expected—confirming a feeble 0.2% three-month gain amid escalating global risks like energy shocks from Middle East tensions. This weak Q1 start has overshadowed official projections, including the Office for Budget Responsibility's revised 1.1% forecast (March 3) and OECD's downgrade to 0.7%, as traders price in persistent cyclical headwinds from softening labor markets and sticky inflation. Key swing factors include upcoming February GDP data (mid-April) and Bank of England May MPC decisions on rate cuts, which could tip the balance toward mild recovery in the 1-2% range at 20.5%.
This market will resolve according to the estimate of UK real gross domestic product (GDP) across the year of 2026 (% change) in the "GDP First quarterly estimate, UK" release for October-December (Q4) of 2026, scheduled for February 12, 2027.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/bulletins/gdpfirstquarterlyestimateuk/previousreleases
The estimate of UK real GDP across the year of 2026 is an estimate of the rate at which real GDP changed, on average, throughout the year of 2026. The relevant figure may be found in “Table 1: Headline national accounts indicators for the UK” under “GDP (Chained Volume Measures)” for the relevant year, or elsewhere in the release.
If no data for the estimate of UK real gross domestic product (GDP) across the year of 2026 is included in this release, this market will resolve according to the rate at which UK real gross domestic product (GDP) changed in Q4 compared with the same quarter of the previous year. If neither figure is released by the date the next quarter's GDP first quarterly estimate is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on quarterly data (compared to the same quarter in the previous year) from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/bulletins/gdpfirstquarterlyestimateuk/previousreleases
The estimate of UK real GDP across the year of 2026 is an estimate of the rate at which real GDP changed, on average, throughout the year of 2026. The relevant figure may be found in “Table 1: Headline national accounts indicators for the UK” under “GDP (Chained Volume Measures)” for the relevant year, or elsewhere in the release.
If no data for the estimate of UK real gross domestic product (GDP) across the year of 2026 is included in this release, this market will resolve according to the rate at which UK real gross domestic product (GDP) changed in Q4 compared with the same quarter of the previous year. If neither figure is released by the date the next quarter's GDP first quarterly estimate is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on quarterly data (compared to the same quarter in the previous year) from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Mercado abierto: Jan 22, 2026, 10:27 AM ET
Volumen
$1,594Fecha de finalización
12 feb 2027Mercado abierto
Jan 22, 2026, 10:27 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the estimate of UK real gross domestic product (GDP) across the year of 2026 (% change) in the "GDP First quarterly estimate, UK" release for October-December (Q4) of 2026, scheduled for February 12, 2027.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/bulletins/gdpfirstquarterlyestimateuk/previousreleases
The estimate of UK real GDP across the year of 2026 is an estimate of the rate at which real GDP changed, on average, throughout the year of 2026. The relevant figure may be found in “Table 1: Headline national accounts indicators for the UK” under “GDP (Chained Volume Measures)” for the relevant year, or elsewhere in the release.
If no data for the estimate of UK real gross domestic product (GDP) across the year of 2026 is included in this release, this market will resolve according to the rate at which UK real gross domestic product (GDP) changed in Q4 compared with the same quarter of the previous year. If neither figure is released by the date the next quarter's GDP first quarterly estimate is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on quarterly data (compared to the same quarter in the previous year) from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader sentiment on UK annual GDP growth for 2026 reflects deep uncertainty, with market-implied probabilities closely split between contraction at 33.5% and stagnation in the 0-1% band at 27.5%, driven by the Office for National Statistics' March 13 report of flat monthly GDP in January—worse than expected—confirming a feeble 0.2% three-month gain amid escalating global risks like energy shocks from Middle East tensions. This weak Q1 start has overshadowed official projections, including the Office for Budget Responsibility's revised 1.1% forecast (March 3) and OECD's downgrade to 0.7%, as traders price in persistent cyclical headwinds from softening labor markets and sticky inflation. Key swing factors include upcoming February GDP data (mid-April) and Bank of England May MPC decisions on rate cuts, which could tip the balance toward mild recovery in the 1-2% range at 20.5%.
This market will resolve according to the estimate of UK real gross domestic product (GDP) across the year of 2026 (% change) in the "GDP First quarterly estimate, UK" release for October-December (Q4) of 2026, scheduled for February 12, 2027.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/bulletins/gdpfirstquarterlyestimateuk/previousreleases
The estimate of UK real GDP across the year of 2026 is an estimate of the rate at which real GDP changed, on average, throughout the year of 2026. The relevant figure may be found in “Table 1: Headline national accounts indicators for the UK” under “GDP (Chained Volume Measures)” for the relevant year, or elsewhere in the release.
If no data for the estimate of UK real gross domestic product (GDP) across the year of 2026 is included in this release, this market will resolve according to the rate at which UK real gross domestic product (GDP) changed in Q4 compared with the same quarter of the previous year. If neither figure is released by the date the next quarter's GDP first quarterly estimate is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on quarterly data (compared to the same quarter in the previous year) from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/bulletins/gdpfirstquarterlyestimateuk/previousreleases
The estimate of UK real GDP across the year of 2026 is an estimate of the rate at which real GDP changed, on average, throughout the year of 2026. The relevant figure may be found in “Table 1: Headline national accounts indicators for the UK” under “GDP (Chained Volume Measures)” for the relevant year, or elsewhere in the release.
If no data for the estimate of UK real gross domestic product (GDP) across the year of 2026 is included in this release, this market will resolve according to the rate at which UK real gross domestic product (GDP) changed in Q4 compared with the same quarter of the previous year. If neither figure is released by the date the next quarter's GDP first quarterly estimate is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on quarterly data (compared to the same quarter in the previous year) from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volumen
$1,594Fecha de finalización
12 feb 2027Mercado abierto
Jan 22, 2026, 10:27 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader sentiment on UK annual GDP growth for 2026 reflects deep uncertainty, with market-implied probabilities closely split between contraction at 33.5% and stagnation in the 0-1% band at 27.5%, driven by the Office for National Statistics' March 13 report of flat monthly GDP in January—worse than expected—confirming a feeble 0.2% three-month gain amid escalating global risks like energy shocks from Middle East tensions. This weak Q1 start has overshadowed official projections, including the Office for Budget Responsibility's revised 1.1% forecast (March 3) and OECD's downgrade to 0.7%, as traders price in persistent cyclical headwinds from softening labor markets and sticky inflation. Key swing factors include upcoming February GDP data (mid-April) and Bank of England May MPC decisions on rate cuts, which could tip the balance toward mild recovery in the 1-2% range at 20.5%.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · Actualizado
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