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Tech·Llm

¿OpenAI anuncia que ha logrado AGI antes de 2027?

Market icon
Tech·Llm

¿OpenAI anuncia que ha logrado AGI antes de 2027?

Sí

20% probabilidad
Polymarket

$44,728 Vol.

Sí

20% probabilidad
Polymarket

$44,728 Vol.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if OpenAI or an official representative of the company announces that it has created an artificial general intelligence (AGI) by December 31, 2026 ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI and/or its official representative, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects deep skepticism that OpenAI will announce artificial general intelligence (AGI)—defined as a highly autonomous system outperforming humans at most economically valuable work—before 2027, with "No" shares implying an 81% probability. This positioning stems from the absence of any official AGI achievement claims, despite recent restructuring of OpenAI's product unit into "AGI Deployment" and completion of pre-training on the advanced "Spud" model in late March 2026. Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang's bold assertion two days ago that "we've achieved AGI" briefly lifted Yes odds to around 30% via spillover hype, but traders dismissed it as non-OpenAI specific and unverified against benchmarks. Sam Altman's roadmap now targets AI research interns by late 2026 and full AGI researchers by 2028, while the Microsoft partnership mandates an independent expert panel for validation, underscoring unresolved technical and definitional hurdles amid competitive pressures from Google and Anthropic. Key catalysts ahead include potential GPT-5.x releases or developer conference demos.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if OpenAI or an official representative of the company announces that it has created an artificial general intelligence (AGI) by December 31, 2026 ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI and/or its official representative, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Volumen
$44,728
Fecha de finalización
31 dic 2026
Mercado abierto
Oct 28, 2025, 11:01 AM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if OpenAI or an official representative of the company announces that it has created an artificial general intelligence (AGI) by December 31, 2026 ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI and/or its official representative, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if OpenAI or an official representative of the company announces that it has created an artificial general intelligence (AGI) by December 31, 2026 ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI and/or its official representative, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects deep skepticism that OpenAI will announce artificial general intelligence (AGI)—defined as a highly autonomous system outperforming humans at most economically valuable work—before 2027, with "No" shares implying an 81% probability. This positioning stems from the absence of any official AGI achievement claims, despite recent restructuring of OpenAI's product unit into "AGI Deployment" and completion of pre-training on the advanced "Spud" model in late March 2026. Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang's bold assertion two days ago that "we've achieved AGI" briefly lifted Yes odds to around 30% via spillover hype, but traders dismissed it as non-OpenAI specific and unverified against benchmarks. Sam Altman's roadmap now targets AI research interns by late 2026 and full AGI researchers by 2028, while the Microsoft partnership mandates an independent expert panel for validation, underscoring unresolved technical and definitional hurdles amid competitive pressures from Google and Anthropic. Key catalysts ahead include potential GPT-5.x releases or developer conference demos.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if OpenAI or an official representative of the company announces that it has created an artificial general intelligence (AGI) by December 31, 2026 ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI and/or its official representative, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Volumen
$44,728
Fecha de finalización
31 dic 2026
Mercado abierto
Oct 28, 2025, 11:01 AM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if OpenAI or an official representative of the company announces that it has created an artificial general intelligence (AGI) by December 31, 2026 ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI and/or its official representative, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Cuidado con los enlaces externos.

Preguntas frecuentes

"¿OpenAI anuncia que ha logrado AGI antes de 2027?" es un mercado de predicción en Polymarket con 2 resultados posibles donde los operadores compran y venden acciones según lo que creen que sucederá. El resultado líder actual es "¿OpenAI anuncia que ha logrado AGI antes de 2027?" con 20%. Los precios reflejan probabilidades en tiempo real de la comunidad. Por ejemplo, una acción cotizada a 20¢ implica que el mercado colectivamente asigna una probabilidad de 20% a ese resultado. Estas probabilidades cambian continuamente a medida que los operadores reaccionan a nuevos desarrollos. Las acciones del resultado correcto son canjeables por $1 cada una tras la resolución del mercado.

A día de hoy, "¿OpenAI anuncia que ha logrado AGI antes de 2027?" ha generado $44.7K en volumen total de trading desde que el mercado se lanzó el Oct 28, 2025. Este nivel de actividad refleja un fuerte compromiso de la comunidad de Polymarket y ayuda a garantizar que las probabilidades actuales estén respaldadas por un amplio grupo de participantes del mercado. Puedes seguir los movimientos de precios en vivo y operar en cualquier resultado directamente en esta página.

Para operar en "¿OpenAI anuncia que ha logrado AGI antes de 2027?", explora los 2 resultados disponibles en esta página. Cada resultado muestra un precio actual que representa la probabilidad implícita del mercado. Para tomar una posición, selecciona el resultado que consideres más probable, elige "Sí" para operar a favor o "No" para operar en contra, introduce tu cantidad y haz clic en "Operar". Si tu resultado elegido es correcto cuando el mercado se resuelve, tus acciones de "Sí" pagan $1 cada una. Si es incorrecto, pagan $0. También puedes vender tus acciones en cualquier momento antes de la resolución.

El favorito actual para "¿OpenAI anuncia que ha logrado AGI antes de 2027?" es "¿OpenAI anuncia que ha logrado AGI antes de 2027?" con 20%, lo que significa que el mercado asigna una probabilidad de 20% a ese resultado. Estas probabilidades se actualizan en tiempo real a medida que los operadores compran y venden acciones. Vuelve con frecuencia o guarda esta página en marcadores.

Las reglas de resolución para "¿OpenAI anuncia que ha logrado AGI antes de 2027?" definen exactamente qué debe ocurrir para que cada resultado sea declarado ganador, incluyendo las fuentes de datos oficiales utilizadas para determinar el resultado. Puedes revisar los criterios de resolución completos en la sección "Reglas" en esta página sobre los comentarios. Recomendamos leer las reglas cuidadosamente antes de operar, ya que especifican las condiciones exactas, casos especiales y fuentes.