Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 97.5% implied probability to Moscow's highest temperature reaching 12°C or higher today, driven by official Roshydromet forecasts projecting daytime highs of 16–18°C under partly cloudy skies and light northeast winds of 5–10 m/s. This positioning reflects a recent late-March warming trend, with observational data showing morning temperatures already at 7–9°C after a high of around 13°C on March 28, supported by a stable high-pressure system advecting mild air masses northward. Yandex Weather and AccuWeather models align closely at 14–15°C peaks. Realistic challenges include unexpected thickening cloud cover reducing insolation or a late-day cold air surge, though model ensembles show low divergence; monitor hourly station readings from VDNKh or Balchug for resolution.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · ActualizadoHighest temperature in Moscow on March 30?
Highest temperature in Moscow on March 30?
12°C or higher 98.0%
11°C 2.0%
10°C 1.4%
2°C or below <1%
NEW
$12,237 Vol.
NEW
$12,237 Vol.
Mar 30, 2026
2°C or below
<1%
3°C
<1%
4°C
<1%
5°C
<1%
6°C
<1%
7°C
<1%
8°C
<1%
9°C
<1%
10°C
1%
11°C
2%
12°C or higher
98%
12°C or higher 98.0%
11°C 2.0%
10°C 1.4%
2°C or below <1%
NEW
$12,237 Vol.
NEW
$12,237 Vol.
Mar 30, 2026
2°C or below
$398 Vol.
<1%
3°C
$895 Vol.
<1%
4°C
$895 Vol.
<1%
5°C
$900 Vol.
<1%
6°C
$790 Vol.
<1%
7°C
$1,900 Vol.
<1%
8°C
$1,795 Vol.
<1%
9°C
$2,273 Vol.
<1%
10°C
$802 Vol.
1%
11°C
$322 Vol.
2%
12°C or higher
$1,267 Vol.
98%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Vnukovo International Airport in degrees Celsius on 30 Mar '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 97.5% implied probability to Moscow's highest temperature reaching 12°C or higher today, driven by official Roshydromet forecasts projecting daytime highs of 16–18°C under partly cloudy skies and light northeast winds of 5–10 m/s. This positioning reflects a recent late-March warming trend, with observational data showing morning temperatures already at 7–9°C after a high of around 13°C on March 28, supported by a stable high-pressure system advecting mild air masses northward. Yandex Weather and AccuWeather models align closely at 14–15°C peaks. Realistic challenges include unexpected thickening cloud cover reducing insolation or a late-day cold air surge, though model ensembles show low divergence; monitor hourly station readings from VDNKh or Balchug for resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Vnukovo International Airport in degrees Celsius on 30 Mar '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Mercado abierto: Mar 29, 2026, 2:23 PM ET
Volumen
$12,237Fecha de finalización
Mar 30, 2026Mercado abierto
Mar 29, 2026, 2:23 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resultado propuesto: No
Ventana de disputas
Final
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Vnukovo International Airport in degrees Celsius on 30 Mar '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 97.5% implied probability to Moscow's highest temperature reaching 12°C or higher today, driven by official Roshydromet forecasts projecting daytime highs of 16–18°C under partly cloudy skies and light northeast winds of 5–10 m/s. This positioning reflects a recent late-March warming trend, with observational data showing morning temperatures already at 7–9°C after a high of around 13°C on March 28, supported by a stable high-pressure system advecting mild air masses northward. Yandex Weather and AccuWeather models align closely at 14–15°C peaks. Realistic challenges include unexpected thickening cloud cover reducing insolation or a late-day cold air surge, though model ensembles show low divergence; monitor hourly station readings from VDNKh or Balchug for resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Vnukovo International Airport in degrees Celsius on 30 Mar '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volumen
$12,237Fecha de finalización
Mar 30, 2026Mercado abierto
Mar 29, 2026, 2:23 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resultado propuesto: No
Ventana de disputas
Final
Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 97.5% implied probability to Moscow's highest temperature reaching 12°C or higher today, driven by official Roshydromet forecasts projecting daytime highs of 16–18°C under partly cloudy skies and light northeast winds of 5–10 m/s. This positioning reflects a recent late-March warming trend, with observational data showing morning temperatures already at 7–9°C after a high of around 13°C on March 28, supported by a stable high-pressure system advecting mild air masses northward. Yandex Weather and AccuWeather models align closely at 14–15°C peaks. Realistic challenges include unexpected thickening cloud cover reducing insolation or a late-day cold air surge, though model ensembles show low divergence; monitor hourly station readings from VDNKh or Balchug for resolution.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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