Polymarket traders price a 45% implied probability for COMEX gold futures (GC) closing above $2,700/oz at June's end, driven primarily by persistent Fed rate cut expectations offsetting dollar strength amid sticky inflation data. Spot gold holds near $2,660/oz after rallying 15% YTD on central bank purchases exceeding 1,000 tonnes annually and Middle East tensions, yet real 10-year Treasury yields above 2% cap upside. Key catalysts ahead include June 12 FOMC policy signals and June 28 settlement; a hawkish dot plot or softer-than-expected CPI could reinforce trader consensus for sub-$2,700 closure, while escalating geopolitics boosts safe-haven bids. Historical June volatility averages 2.5%, underscoring resolution risk.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · Actualizado¿Oro (GC) por encima de ___ a finales de junio?
¿Oro (GC) por encima de ___ a finales de junio?
$40,745 Vol.
$8,000
2%
$7,000
12%
$6,500
5%
$6,200
9%
$6,000
10%
$5,800
19%
$5,600
22%
$5,400
29%
$5,200
40%
$5,000
38%
$4,800
46%
$4,600
51%
$40,745 Vol.
$8,000
2%
$7,000
12%
$6,500
5%
$6,200
9%
$6,000
10%
$5,800
19%
$5,600
22%
$5,400
29%
$5,200
40%
$5,000
38%
$4,800
46%
$4,600
51%
For CME Gold (GC) futures contracts, the Active Month is the nearest of CME's designated delivery-cycle months (February, April, June, August, October, December) that is not the spot month. The Active Month changes automatically on the contract's First Position Date, at which point the next eligible contract month becomes the Active Month.
Only the Active Month's official settlement price published by CME Group will be considered. Intraday trades, highs, lows, bids, offers, midpoint values, or indicative prices do not count.
Note that the settlement price may differ from the last traded price. CME's methodology to determine the settlement price can vary by commodity and contract.
Only days during June on which CME publishes an official settlement price for the Active Month will be included. Days without settlement prices (weekends, holidays, or market closures) are ignored.
This market will resolve based on the settlement price as it appears on the CME settlement page at the time it is first published for that trading day, regardless of any later corrections or updates.
The resolution source for this market is the CME Group website — specifically, the daily "Settlement" price for the Active Month of Gold (GC) futures.
Mercado abierto: Dec 26, 2025, 6:27 PM ET
Resolver
0x65070BE91...Resolver
0x65070BE91...Polymarket traders price a 45% implied probability for COMEX gold futures (GC) closing above $2,700/oz at June's end, driven primarily by persistent Fed rate cut expectations offsetting dollar strength amid sticky inflation data. Spot gold holds near $2,660/oz after rallying 15% YTD on central bank purchases exceeding 1,000 tonnes annually and Middle East tensions, yet real 10-year Treasury yields above 2% cap upside. Key catalysts ahead include June 12 FOMC policy signals and June 28 settlement; a hawkish dot plot or softer-than-expected CPI could reinforce trader consensus for sub-$2,700 closure, while escalating geopolitics boosts safe-haven bids. Historical June volatility averages 2.5%, underscoring resolution risk.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · Actualizado
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