Polymarket traders assign an 85% implied probability to gold futures (GC) closing above $2,300 by June 30, fueled by Federal Reserve rate cut expectations after softer-than-expected May CPI data showing core inflation at 3.4% year-over-year. The U.S. dollar index has weakened 2% in the past month amid Fed funds futures pricing a 25bps cut by September with 70% odds, classically supporting non-yielding gold as a hedge. Central bank purchases, including China's recent 5-tonne buy, add tailwinds, while COMEX positioning shows longs at multi-year highs. Key risks include hotter June CPI (June 12) or hawkish FOMC (June 11-12) dot plot revisions, potentially capping gains near $2,350 resistance; historical June averages mask volatility around 3%.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · Actualizado¿Oro (GC) por encima de ___ a finales de junio?
¿Oro (GC) por encima de ___ a finales de junio?
$24,071 Vol.
$8,000
2%
$7,000
12%
$6,500
5%
$6,200
9%
$6,000
10%
$5,800
22%
$5,600
26%
$5,400
28%
$5,200
40%
$5,000
38%
$4,800
46%
$4,600
51%
$24,071 Vol.
$8,000
2%
$7,000
12%
$6,500
5%
$6,200
9%
$6,000
10%
$5,800
22%
$5,600
26%
$5,400
28%
$5,200
40%
$5,000
38%
$4,800
46%
$4,600
51%
For CME Gold (GC) futures contracts, the Active Month is the nearest of CME's designated delivery-cycle months (February, April, June, August, October, December) that is not the spot month. The Active Month changes automatically on the contract's First Position Date, at which point the next eligible contract month becomes the Active Month.
Only the Active Month's official settlement price published by CME Group will be considered. Intraday trades, highs, lows, bids, offers, midpoint values, or indicative prices do not count.
Note that the settlement price may differ from the last traded price. CME's methodology to determine the settlement price can vary by commodity and contract.
Only days during June on which CME publishes an official settlement price for the Active Month will be included. Days without settlement prices (weekends, holidays, or market closures) are ignored.
This market will resolve based on the settlement price as it appears on the CME settlement page at the time it is first published for that trading day, regardless of any later corrections or updates.
The resolution source for this market is the CME Group website — specifically, the daily "Settlement" price for the Active Month of Gold (GC) futures.
Mercado abierto: Dec 26, 2025, 6:27 PM ET
Resolver
0x65070BE91...Resolver
0x65070BE91...Polymarket traders assign an 85% implied probability to gold futures (GC) closing above $2,300 by June 30, fueled by Federal Reserve rate cut expectations after softer-than-expected May CPI data showing core inflation at 3.4% year-over-year. The U.S. dollar index has weakened 2% in the past month amid Fed funds futures pricing a 25bps cut by September with 70% odds, classically supporting non-yielding gold as a hedge. Central bank purchases, including China's recent 5-tonne buy, add tailwinds, while COMEX positioning shows longs at multi-year highs. Key risks include hotter June CPI (June 12) or hawkish FOMC (June 11-12) dot plot revisions, potentially capping gains near $2,350 resistance; historical June averages mask volatility around 3%.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · Actualizado
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Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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