China's Two Sessions announcement on March 4 set the official 2026 GDP growth target at 4.5–5%, the lowest in over three decades, aligning closely with trader consensus pricing 4.0–5.0% at 72.5% implied probability amid forecasts from IMF (4.5%), World Bank (4.4%), and others clustering around 4.5%. January–February data showed a strong start with exports surging 21.8% year-on-year on AI-driven demand, retail sales up 2.8%, and fixed-asset investment rising, though domestic consumption and property sectors remain soft despite expansionary fiscal policy including a 4% budget deficit. Moderation from 2025's 5% growth reflects export deceleration risks from global tariffs, positioning 5.0–6.0% at 25.5% as the next viable outcome, while higher bands face structural headwinds. Q1 GDP data, due mid-April, could refine assessments.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · Actualizado4.0–5.0% 73%
5,0–6,0% 25.4%
3,0–4,0 % 1.0%
6,0-7,0% <1%
$195,173 Vol.
$195,173 Vol.
Jan 31, 2026
<1,0%
<1%
1.0–2.0%
1%
2,0–3,0%
1%
3,0–4,0 %
1%
4.0–5.0%
73%
5,0–6,0%
25%
6,0-7,0%
1%
7,0–8,0 %
1%
8,0–9,0%
1%
9,0%+
<1%
4.0–5.0% 73%
5,0–6,0% 25.4%
3,0–4,0 % 1.0%
6,0-7,0% <1%
$195,173 Vol.
$195,173 Vol.
Jan 31, 2026
<1,0%
$16,622 Vol.
<1%
1.0–2.0%
$26,146 Vol.
1%
2,0–3,0%
$5,326 Vol.
1%
3,0–4,0 %
$6,079 Vol.
1%
4.0–5.0%
$10,652 Vol.
73%
5,0–6,0%
$10,969 Vol.
25%
6,0-7,0%
$17,898 Vol.
1%
7,0–8,0 %
$28,091 Vol.
1%
8,0–9,0%
$5,623 Vol.
1%
9,0%+
$67,767 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to China's Y/Y Growth Rate of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for the full year of 2026, as reported in the "Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP" release for the fourth quarter and full year of 2026, scheduled for some time in January, 2027.
The relevant figure may be found in the table titled “Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP for the Fourth Quarter and Full Year of 2026” under “Growth Rate Y/Y (%)” in the row “GDP” and the column “Year 2026”. The annual GDP Y/Y growth rate will still be considered if China’s GDP reporting format changes.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/
If no figure for the full year 2026 Y/Y GDP growth rate is reported, this market will resolve according to the Y/Y growth rate for Q4 2026. If no data for the specified year and quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.China's Two Sessions announcement on March 4 set the official 2026 GDP growth target at 4.5–5%, the lowest in over three decades, aligning closely with trader consensus pricing 4.0–5.0% at 72.5% implied probability amid forecasts from IMF (4.5%), World Bank (4.4%), and others clustering around 4.5%. January–February data showed a strong start with exports surging 21.8% year-on-year on AI-driven demand, retail sales up 2.8%, and fixed-asset investment rising, though domestic consumption and property sectors remain soft despite expansionary fiscal policy including a 4% budget deficit. Moderation from 2025's 5% growth reflects export deceleration risks from global tariffs, positioning 5.0–6.0% at 25.5% as the next viable outcome, while higher bands face structural headwinds. Q1 GDP data, due mid-April, could refine assessments.
This market will resolve according to China's Y/Y Growth Rate of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for the full year of 2026, as reported in the "Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP" release for the fourth quarter and full year of 2026, scheduled for some time in January, 2027.
The relevant figure may be found in the table titled “Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP for the Fourth Quarter and Full Year of 2026” under “Growth Rate Y/Y (%)” in the row “GDP” and the column “Year 2026”. The annual GDP Y/Y growth rate will still be considered if China’s GDP reporting format changes.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/
If no figure for the full year 2026 Y/Y GDP growth rate is reported, this market will resolve according to the Y/Y growth rate for Q4 2026. If no data for the specified year and quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The relevant figure may be found in the table titled “Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP for the Fourth Quarter and Full Year of 2026” under “Growth Rate Y/Y (%)” in the row “GDP” and the column “Year 2026”. The annual GDP Y/Y growth rate will still be considered if China’s GDP reporting format changes.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/
If no figure for the full year 2026 Y/Y GDP growth rate is reported, this market will resolve according to the Y/Y growth rate for Q4 2026. If no data for the specified year and quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Mercado abierto: Jan 21, 2026, 6:18 PM ET
Volumen
$195,173Fecha de finalización
Jan 31, 2026Mercado abierto
Jan 21, 2026, 6:18 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to China's Y/Y Growth Rate of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for the full year of 2026, as reported in the "Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP" release for the fourth quarter and full year of 2026, scheduled for some time in January, 2027.
The relevant figure may be found in the table titled “Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP for the Fourth Quarter and Full Year of 2026” under “Growth Rate Y/Y (%)” in the row “GDP” and the column “Year 2026”. The annual GDP Y/Y growth rate will still be considered if China’s GDP reporting format changes.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/
If no figure for the full year 2026 Y/Y GDP growth rate is reported, this market will resolve according to the Y/Y growth rate for Q4 2026. If no data for the specified year and quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.China's Two Sessions announcement on March 4 set the official 2026 GDP growth target at 4.5–5%, the lowest in over three decades, aligning closely with trader consensus pricing 4.0–5.0% at 72.5% implied probability amid forecasts from IMF (4.5%), World Bank (4.4%), and others clustering around 4.5%. January–February data showed a strong start with exports surging 21.8% year-on-year on AI-driven demand, retail sales up 2.8%, and fixed-asset investment rising, though domestic consumption and property sectors remain soft despite expansionary fiscal policy including a 4% budget deficit. Moderation from 2025's 5% growth reflects export deceleration risks from global tariffs, positioning 5.0–6.0% at 25.5% as the next viable outcome, while higher bands face structural headwinds. Q1 GDP data, due mid-April, could refine assessments.
This market will resolve according to China's Y/Y Growth Rate of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for the full year of 2026, as reported in the "Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP" release for the fourth quarter and full year of 2026, scheduled for some time in January, 2027.
The relevant figure may be found in the table titled “Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP for the Fourth Quarter and Full Year of 2026” under “Growth Rate Y/Y (%)” in the row “GDP” and the column “Year 2026”. The annual GDP Y/Y growth rate will still be considered if China’s GDP reporting format changes.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/
If no figure for the full year 2026 Y/Y GDP growth rate is reported, this market will resolve according to the Y/Y growth rate for Q4 2026. If no data for the specified year and quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The relevant figure may be found in the table titled “Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP for the Fourth Quarter and Full Year of 2026” under “Growth Rate Y/Y (%)” in the row “GDP” and the column “Year 2026”. The annual GDP Y/Y growth rate will still be considered if China’s GDP reporting format changes.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/
If no figure for the full year 2026 Y/Y GDP growth rate is reported, this market will resolve according to the Y/Y growth rate for Q4 2026. If no data for the specified year and quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volumen
$195,173Fecha de finalización
Jan 31, 2026Mercado abierto
Jan 21, 2026, 6:18 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...China's Two Sessions announcement on March 4 set the official 2026 GDP growth target at 4.5–5%, the lowest in over three decades, aligning closely with trader consensus pricing 4.0–5.0% at 72.5% implied probability amid forecasts from IMF (4.5%), World Bank (4.4%), and others clustering around 4.5%. January–February data showed a strong start with exports surging 21.8% year-on-year on AI-driven demand, retail sales up 2.8%, and fixed-asset investment rising, though domestic consumption and property sectors remain soft despite expansionary fiscal policy including a 4% budget deficit. Moderation from 2025's 5% growth reflects export deceleration risks from global tariffs, positioning 5.0–6.0% at 25.5% as the next viable outcome, while higher bands face structural headwinds. Q1 GDP data, due mid-April, could refine assessments.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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