Trader consensus on Polymarket prices 4.0–5.0% annual GDP growth for China in 2026 at 71%, driven by structural headwinds offsetting recent policy support. The November Politburo meeting pledged proactive fiscal expansion and monetary easing to tackle property crisis fallout and deflationary pressures, after Q3 GDP rose 4.6% year-over-year, missing the 5% target. Donald Trump's U.S. election win amplifies tariff risks on exports, a key growth engine, aligning with IMF and World Bank forecasts around 4.3–4.5% for 2026. While stimulus could provide upside, high local government debt and subdued consumption cap probabilities above 5.0%, with the National People's Congress in March 2025 setting nearer-term targets that may signal longer horizons.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · Actualizado4.0–5.0% 71%
5,0–6,0% 27.3%
6,0-7,0% 3.6%
1.0–2.0% 1.9%
$192,687 Vol.
$192,687 Vol.
Jan 31, 2026
<1,0%
<1%
1.0–2.0%
2%
2,0–3,0%
1%
3,0–4,0 %
1%
4.0–5.0%
71%
5,0–6,0%
27%
6,0-7,0%
4%
7,0–8,0 %
2%
8,0–9,0%
1%
9,0%+
<1%
4.0–5.0% 71%
5,0–6,0% 27.3%
6,0-7,0% 3.6%
1.0–2.0% 1.9%
$192,687 Vol.
$192,687 Vol.
Jan 31, 2026
<1,0%
$16,383 Vol.
<1%
1.0–2.0%
$25,913 Vol.
2%
2,0–3,0%
$5,093 Vol.
1%
3,0–4,0 %
$5,820 Vol.
1%
4.0–5.0%
$10,319 Vol.
71%
5,0–6,0%
$10,712 Vol.
27%
6,0-7,0%
$17,665 Vol.
4%
7,0–8,0 %
$27,858 Vol.
2%
8,0–9,0%
$5,390 Vol.
1%
9,0%+
$67,534 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to China's Y/Y Growth Rate of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for the full year of 2026, as reported in the "Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP" release for the fourth quarter and full year of 2026, scheduled for some time in January, 2027.
The relevant figure may be found in the table titled “Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP for the Fourth Quarter and Full Year of 2026” under “Growth Rate Y/Y (%)” in the row “GDP” and the column “Year 2026”. The annual GDP Y/Y growth rate will still be considered if China’s GDP reporting format changes.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/
If no figure for the full year 2026 Y/Y GDP growth rate is reported, this market will resolve according to the Y/Y growth rate for Q4 2026. If no data for the specified year and quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices 4.0–5.0% annual GDP growth for China in 2026 at 71%, driven by structural headwinds offsetting recent policy support. The November Politburo meeting pledged proactive fiscal expansion and monetary easing to tackle property crisis fallout and deflationary pressures, after Q3 GDP rose 4.6% year-over-year, missing the 5% target. Donald Trump's U.S. election win amplifies tariff risks on exports, a key growth engine, aligning with IMF and World Bank forecasts around 4.3–4.5% for 2026. While stimulus could provide upside, high local government debt and subdued consumption cap probabilities above 5.0%, with the National People's Congress in March 2025 setting nearer-term targets that may signal longer horizons.
This market will resolve according to China's Y/Y Growth Rate of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for the full year of 2026, as reported in the "Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP" release for the fourth quarter and full year of 2026, scheduled for some time in January, 2027.
The relevant figure may be found in the table titled “Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP for the Fourth Quarter and Full Year of 2026” under “Growth Rate Y/Y (%)” in the row “GDP” and the column “Year 2026”. The annual GDP Y/Y growth rate will still be considered if China’s GDP reporting format changes.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/
If no figure for the full year 2026 Y/Y GDP growth rate is reported, this market will resolve according to the Y/Y growth rate for Q4 2026. If no data for the specified year and quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The relevant figure may be found in the table titled “Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP for the Fourth Quarter and Full Year of 2026” under “Growth Rate Y/Y (%)” in the row “GDP” and the column “Year 2026”. The annual GDP Y/Y growth rate will still be considered if China’s GDP reporting format changes.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/
If no figure for the full year 2026 Y/Y GDP growth rate is reported, this market will resolve according to the Y/Y growth rate for Q4 2026. If no data for the specified year and quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Mercado abierto: Jan 21, 2026, 6:18 PM ET
Volumen
$192,687Fecha de finalización
Jan 31, 2026Mercado abierto
Jan 21, 2026, 6:18 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to China's Y/Y Growth Rate of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for the full year of 2026, as reported in the "Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP" release for the fourth quarter and full year of 2026, scheduled for some time in January, 2027.
The relevant figure may be found in the table titled “Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP for the Fourth Quarter and Full Year of 2026” under “Growth Rate Y/Y (%)” in the row “GDP” and the column “Year 2026”. The annual GDP Y/Y growth rate will still be considered if China’s GDP reporting format changes.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/
If no figure for the full year 2026 Y/Y GDP growth rate is reported, this market will resolve according to the Y/Y growth rate for Q4 2026. If no data for the specified year and quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices 4.0–5.0% annual GDP growth for China in 2026 at 71%, driven by structural headwinds offsetting recent policy support. The November Politburo meeting pledged proactive fiscal expansion and monetary easing to tackle property crisis fallout and deflationary pressures, after Q3 GDP rose 4.6% year-over-year, missing the 5% target. Donald Trump's U.S. election win amplifies tariff risks on exports, a key growth engine, aligning with IMF and World Bank forecasts around 4.3–4.5% for 2026. While stimulus could provide upside, high local government debt and subdued consumption cap probabilities above 5.0%, with the National People's Congress in March 2025 setting nearer-term targets that may signal longer horizons.
This market will resolve according to China's Y/Y Growth Rate of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for the full year of 2026, as reported in the "Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP" release for the fourth quarter and full year of 2026, scheduled for some time in January, 2027.
The relevant figure may be found in the table titled “Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP for the Fourth Quarter and Full Year of 2026” under “Growth Rate Y/Y (%)” in the row “GDP” and the column “Year 2026”. The annual GDP Y/Y growth rate will still be considered if China’s GDP reporting format changes.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/
If no figure for the full year 2026 Y/Y GDP growth rate is reported, this market will resolve according to the Y/Y growth rate for Q4 2026. If no data for the specified year and quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The relevant figure may be found in the table titled “Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP for the Fourth Quarter and Full Year of 2026” under “Growth Rate Y/Y (%)” in the row “GDP” and the column “Year 2026”. The annual GDP Y/Y growth rate will still be considered if China’s GDP reporting format changes.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/
If no figure for the full year 2026 Y/Y GDP growth rate is reported, this market will resolve according to the Y/Y growth rate for Q4 2026. If no data for the specified year and quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volumen
$192,687Fecha de finalización
Jan 31, 2026Mercado abierto
Jan 21, 2026, 6:18 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus on Polymarket prices 4.0–5.0% annual GDP growth for China in 2026 at 71%, driven by structural headwinds offsetting recent policy support. The November Politburo meeting pledged proactive fiscal expansion and monetary easing to tackle property crisis fallout and deflationary pressures, after Q3 GDP rose 4.6% year-over-year, missing the 5% target. Donald Trump's U.S. election win amplifies tariff risks on exports, a key growth engine, aligning with IMF and World Bank forecasts around 4.3–4.5% for 2026. While stimulus could provide upside, high local government debt and subdued consumption cap probabilities above 5.0%, with the National People's Congress in March 2025 setting nearer-term targets that may signal longer horizons.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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